WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What would you think for ratios during this? I'm assuming less than the usual 10:1? I don't have the soundings yet, but if the NAM's profiles were to verify, I'd certainly expect ~10:1. For yesterday and before, I was thinking probably more like ~5-8:1 given the warm boundary layer of 34-36F. I was very surprised last year during the PSUHoffman Storm when I had over 10" of snow IMBY with 5:1 ratios! I think that's a very anomalous situation, however. Unless more guidance comes in as cold as the NAM, I'd hedge a bit lower than 10:1, maybe 8:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 All we need to do now is to resort to better initialization of the northern stream and black magic for a 50 miles more northerly track. Does anyone have any small furry animals they are will to donate for the sake of the storm, and Zule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Downsloping. It sucks to be in the immediate shadow of the Blue ridge. Lots of deserts form this way Thanks for the explanation gentleman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I never understood how a place 50 miles west of me towards the mountains get's less annual average snowfall than me. It sucks, but we sit in a fairly substantial valley for this area. It's part of the reason that we get shafted with topographic snowstorms and we have the highest temperatures in the area each summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't have the soundings yet, but if the NAM's profiles were to verify, I'd certainly expect ~10:1. For yesterday and before, I was thinking probably more like ~5-8:1 given the warm boundary layer of 34-36F. I was very surprised last year during the PSUHoffman Storm when I had over 10" of snow IMBY with 5:1 ratios! I think that's a very anomalous situation, however. Unless more guidance comes in as cold as the NAM, I'd hedge a bit lower than 10:1, maybe 8:1. Seems very reasonable. Thanks for the response. I asked mainly because I always assume that the clown maps use the standard 10:1 and therefore, can be slashed a bit in addition to the NAM overdoing precip slash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 MNTransplant just posted the 21z Sunday NAM sounding for DCA in the model thread...I'd certainly expect ~10:1 ratios with that profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 MNTransplant just posted the 21z Sunday NAM sounding for DCA in the model thread...I'd certainly expect ~10:1 ratios with that profile. Did I see potential for convective snow on that sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 anyone hugging the NAM needs to go read some of zwyts posts from today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 anyone hugging the NAM needs to go read some of zwyts posts from today I don't wanna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Did I see potential for convective snow on that sounding? A bit...that nearly adiabatic layer around ~750mb. I think it was a little deeper on the 0z or 6z sounding someone had posted earlier in the thread overnight. As some of the other mets have said, there's a good chance someone will luck out and get pasted pretty good for a couple hours with an enhanced band. anyone hugging the NAM needs to go read some of zwyts posts from today I don't quite get all the NAM hate. The storm forms in 24-36 hours...that's well inside the NAM's wheelhouse. Gets to us at 48-54...on the edge or a bit outside the wheelhouse. If the NAM is by itself, I'd be pretty cautious and I think everyone wants good model consensus. If you recognize the NAM's known biases...too much precip, too cold sometimes in the BL, I don't see what the beef is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't quite get all the NAM hate. The storm forms in 24-36 hours...that's well inside the NAM's wheelhouse. Gets to us at 48-54...on the edge or a bit outside the wheelhouse. If the NAM is by itself, I'd be pretty cautious and I think everyone wants good model consensus. If you recognize the NAM's known biases...too much precip, too cold sometimes in the BL, I don't see what the beef is. I think his point is that until the Euro shows something similar, we should take the NAM with a grain of salt. Its known to overdo qpf, especially at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Rooting for all you guy's/girl's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think his point is that until the Euro shows something similar, we should take the NAM with a grain of salt. Its known to overdo qpf, especially at this range. 9 times out of 10 I would agree with this but the euro misses sometimes and I think this is one of those few times. Euro has the same track and strength of the 850 as the nam and gfs but it develops the nrn edge differently. If we were dealing with track differences I would be waiting for the euro but that's not really the case this time. Of course if I'm wrong I will NEVER EVER doubt the euro again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think his point is that until the Euro shows something similar, we should take the NAM with a grain of salt. Its known to overdo qpf, especially at this range. No doubt. If the Euro is the only model not showing something that 5 other models agree on, that definitely raises eyebrows. But given the fact that HPC posted legit reasons to de-emphasize the 0z Euro solution and the NAM is more in line with the last couple GFS runs, it shouldn't be tossed wholesale. Of course it could be overdoing QPF...it often does. If GFS has the exact same solution but spits out 25% less precip than the NAM, I'd go with the GFS precip totals for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think his point is that until the Euro shows something similar, we should take the NAM with a grain of salt. Its known to overdo qpf, especially at this range. Thanks Buzz Killington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 9 times out of 10 I would agree with this but the euro misses sometimes and I think this is one of those few times. Euro has the same track and strength of the 850 as the nam and gfs but it develops the nrn edge differently. If we were dealing with track differences I would be waiting for the euro but that's not really the case this time. Of course if I'm wrong I will NEVER EVER doubt the euro again. No doubt. If the Euro is the only model not showing something that 5 other models agree on, that definitely raises eyebrows. But given the fact that HPC posted legit reasons to de-emphasize the 0z Euro solution and the NAM is more in line with the last couple GFS runs, it shouldn't be tossed wholesale. Of course it could be overdoing QPF...it often does. If GFS has the exact same solution but spits out 25% less precip than the NAM, I'd go with the GFS precip totals for now. ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS out to 30 and I can't find a single thing different than 6z. Doesn't mean much though. weenie thought "looks like we're still in the strike zone". Well, low is a bit weaker and precip further S at 42. Not really a fan of that but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 we could tell people not to hug the nam all day but if it's really snowy people will hug the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 we could tell people not to hug the nam all day but if it's really snowy people will hug the nam. I know... but look at it this way - ive added a few post to this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS out to 30 and I can't find a single thing different than 6z. Doesn't mean much though. weenie thought "looks like we're still in the strike zone". Well, low is a bit weaker and precip further S at 42. Not really a fan of that but who knows. Yeah, not as good by 66. Scooting east with not too much qpf on that run at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, not as good by 66. Scooting east with not too much qpf on that run at first glance. Tug of war between the north and south solutions. We'll see which one wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, not as good by 66. Scooting east with not too much qpf on that run at first glance. yep- the nam giveth and the gfs taketh. Could be trouble could be wrong. Who knows? Can't freak out at this point. Miller A's are fun and the finer details aren't nailed down until we're inside of 24 hrs. We're still clearly in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The south solution leaves a snow hole at my house. I'd lean that direction based on how this winter has unfolded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 crap. looks like a map update is in order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The south solution leaves a snow hole at my house. I'd lean that direction based on how this winter has unfolded... Forecasting persistence is a very real forecasting tool. The obivious ironic thing that can happen today is for the euro to look like the 12z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We need the EURO to at least hold on to what it had last night. If it gets worse than we might want to start being concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Forecasting persistence is a very real forecasting tool. The obivious ironic thing that can happen today is for the euro to look like the 12z nam. The Ukie sucked balls again at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I can hear the sound of hopes and dreams being crushed now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm waiting for somebody (Yoda maybe) to post the MM5 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I can hear the sound of hopes and dreams being crushed now I almost need earplugs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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