Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dude, you need to give it a rest. Did it ever occur to you that sometimes people are posting at the same time? What is it you are expecting to read over there anyway? You waiting on somebody to tell you that tonights NAM is the solution you can hang your hat on? Put me on ignore if my posts offend you so much. I had no problem with you until this winter. PM me if you have such an issue. You posted the same thought in different ways like 3 times in the main thread. We understand your thoughts... "Give it a rest" - I post far less than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the other models might(?) be stabilizing. it's possible we're about to flip to consensus and the nam is leading the way but given how it usually performs im not sure it can be believed much. If the GFS shows something even remotely similar then it might be time to start getting excited for a sizable storm. Plus not to sound like a weenie but i can almost guarantee that the higher qpf will move north in the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The clown maps show 10" DCA, Arlington, Alexandria. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 some people feel like they simply must post on every page even if they have absolutely nothing to say. we need a thread for just the good amateurs and mets to post stuff about the models where all crap is pruned. the other one can be for the pointless stuff. The funny thing is that I have never claimed to be a good forecaster. That's why the majority of the time I read. Honestly (this is not a dig against you) but you can be quite harsh sometimes. I do not understand when people lump me in with your terseness sometimes...I am generally very patient and easy going. I simply do not think that folks need to say "all solutions are on the table" in multiple posts over the course of like 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The clown maps show 10" DCA, Arlington, Alexandria. lol With the Nam you usally have to cut it in half but 5-6" is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I had no problem with you until this winter. PM me if you have such an issue. You posted the same thought in different ways like 3 times in the main thread. We understand your thoughts... "Give it a rest" - I post far less than you do. Check your post count. If you have a problem with me...deal with it. I have no idea what your issue is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the GFS shows something even remotely similar then it might be time to start getting excited for a sizable storm. Plus not to sound like a weenie but i can almost guarantee that the higher qpf will move north in the next 2 days. I'd be more willing to agree with that if this wasn't the nam from this far out. I'm going to wait for tonight's gfs and even the euro before I get myself really invested. That is funny, careful Mapgirl may be offended and ream you out. As far as this, I was trying to be subtle. . Me and Mapgirl are tight. We're going to go sledding together. Fozz too. And your village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 With the Nam you usally have to cut it in half but 5-6" is nothing to sneeze at. I'd take 2-4" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Check your post count. If you have a problem with me...deal with it. I have no idea what your issue is. Yeah...ok. Not overall count...plus, you can go ahead and subtract out all the posts I've made over the years in situations like this. I'm not going to fight with you. It's pretty clear you are solidified into your point of view and I respect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Stop fighting weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the other models might(?) be stabilizing. it's possible we're about to flip to consensus and the nam is leading the way but given how it usually performs im not sure it can be believed much. Before either counting the NAm forecastrr and it's amounts ore totally dismissing them it's kind of nice looking for a consensus run on the strength of the 500h vort and where the confluence sets up. Heck the NAM has gone from a good hit, to nothing to a monster hit in the last three runs. That suggests the models still don't know how to handle the various impulses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah...ok. Not overall count...plus, you can go ahead and subtract out all the posts I've made over the years in situations like this. I'm not going to fight with you. It's pretty clear you are solidified into your point of view and I respect that. Look, peace, ok. I don't think I've posted anything that bad. Probably the most interesting thing about this whole storm to me is the variability of the whole thing. When I saw that 500 map on the NAM at 36, I knew (thought I did) that it was going to be vastly different. I guess I just got excited about being right for once. I am looking forward to what comes next. I wonder now if that vortex in the NE is just a bit faster to move out if this thing has a chance to go up the coast a bit. ???? I'm curious. It's not a sin. Remember its for fun. My thoughts on this storm will have zero bearing on what actually happens. It's been a sh*t winter, and I hope just this once we can all do a little celebrating. I hope it does get giddy in here. That means we are enjoying it. Anyway, I don't have an issue with you. I was just a bit perplexed as to why you had one with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Enough bickering, girls and boys. This was by far the best semi-fantasy run since 2010. Enjoy it and let's see how this pans out. 0Z GFS is on the door step. We have a long weekend with a Holiday on Monday and this is by far the most fun we have had all season finally tracking something. Grab a beer and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I had no problem with you until this winter. PM me if you have such an issue. You posted the same thought in different ways like 3 times in the main thread. We understand your thoughts... "Give it a rest" - I post far less than you do. But every one of your posts seems to be a lecture or talking about some rule....equally as annoying...IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Look, peace, ok. I don't think I've posted anything that bad. Probably the most interesting thing about this whole storm to me is the variability of the whole thing. When I saw that 500 map on the NAM at 36, I knew (thought I did) that it was going to be vastly different. I guess I just got excited about being right for once. I am looking forward to what comes next. I wonder now if that vortex in the NE is just a bit faster to move out if this thing has a chance to go up the coast a bit. ???? I'm curious. It's not a sin. Remember its for fun. My thoughts on this storm will have zero bearing on what actually happens. It's been a sh*t winter, and I hope just this once we can all do a little celebrating. I hope it does get giddy in here. That means we are enjoying it. Anyway, I don't have an issue with you. I was just a bit perplexed as to why you had one with me. I don't find anything wrong with the way you post....this place has gotten freaking ridiculous.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'd take 2-4" at this point. Dude, way too personal...bring that to OT. Having said that...the 00Z NAM takes that plume of tripical moisture and literally slurps it up, dumping it along the MA/SE. I like the high QPF solution. I mean, you can see the moisture there as we speak streaming northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So if we were to get a 4-6" snowstorm regionwide lasting into early Monday, would people refer to it as PDIII? Or does that title only get used for a 12"+ snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Before either counting the NAm forecastrr and it's amounts ore totally dismissing them it's kind of nice looking for a consensus run on the strength of the 500h vort and where the confluence sets up. Heck the NAM has gone from a good hit, to nothing to a monster hit in the last three runs. That suggests the models still don't know how to handle the various impulses. yeah.. it's pretty but hard to buy into any way i can cut it.. but who knows i guess. i do like that it's showing some instability that was lacking earlier--we briefly touched on this am i think. of course that's probably dependent on the evolution but i do think that the nam has some strengths in that area... especially closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 But every one of your posts seems to be a lecture or talking about some rule....equally as annoying...IMO... Fair enough. Honestly though, I don't understand why some of the experienced posters who have been here for a while cannot set an example for newer members. It would make things run smoothly. I generally try to use the report function but there are times when an actual message is better received. I think you have seen me post well grounded weather related posts (mainly during severe season). So lets just be fair on that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So if we were to get a 4-6" snowstorm regionwide lasting into early Monday, would people refer to it as PDIII? Or does that title only get used for a 12"+ snowstorm? Yeah... 4' - even 8 - isn't PDIII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So if we were to get a 4-6" snowstorm regionwide lasting into early Monday, would people refer to it as PDIII? Or does that title only get used for a 12"+ snowstorm? PD Jr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So if we were to get a 4-6" snowstorm regionwide lasting into early Monday, would people refer to it as PDIII? Or does that title only get used for a 12"+ snowstorm? I think it would have to be 12" minimum to call it PDIII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i'm not sure what the varsity models will do, but I expect them to shift north by tomorrow night or early Saturday if not tonight The euro has a way of putting the kibosh on things, but I am deferring to it....It's been the most consistent I agree with you, but that's just based on model watching for a lot years. I guess the one thing I try to do around here is predict what the models will predict. It's a role, I guess. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 yeah.. it's pretty but hard to buy into any way i can cut it.. but who knows i guess. i do like that it's showing some instability that was lacking earlier--we briefly touched on this am i think. of course that's probably dependent on the evolution but i do think that the nam has some strengths in that area... especially closer in. I think the other thing of interest on it, the rgem look now coming out and the 18Z gfs is the northern stream shortwave brining a front through that actually delivers some cold air so we don't have to manufacture all of it. We still benefit from dynamic cooling via the strong lifting but don't need it as much hence we get snowy solutions. It will be interesting to see if the euro catches onto the same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 And I was called bullish for sticking to my guns on my map earlier..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 PD Jr. Mighty Joe Young PD (Not sure if anyone will get the reference under 40 yrs old) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wes is staying up past his bedtime, folks. Might be game on soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Fair enough. Honestly though, I don't understand why some of the experienced posters who have been here for a while cannot set an example for newer members. It would make things run smoothly. I generally try to use the report function but there are times when an actual message is better received. I think you have seen me post well grounded weather related posts (mainly during severe season). So lets just be fair on that point. When I posted more I read what others said a lot less....now I mostly just read and to tell you the truth...this board is pretty bad at times...there are still a ton of quality conversations but man are they lost when all of the weenie crushers or the we must follow the rules people are running rampant...again my opinion and I couldn't care less if others agree....nothing personal against you though...no harm bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 And I was called bullish for sticking to my guns on my map earlier..... I have a feeling you will be either the next DT or JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i'm not sure what the varsity models will do, but I expect them to shift north by tomorrow night or early Saturday if not tonight The euro has a way of putting the kibosh on things, but I am deferring to it....It's been the most consistent I'm not sure about the GFS but do think the euro is likelyt o come north some. I'm more interested in what it does about the front dropping thru prior to the storm. The 18Z gfs and 00Z nam really delivered and the rgem looks enough like the nam to think it would too. That to me is a bigger deal than simply having a wet nam as it would give us some stickage and if they wetted up maybe more than I originally thouught could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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