nj2va Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I've missed seeing the words "dc crushed" in model threads. Just read it in the NYC forum. !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 1" of precip up to DCA (more just south) and cold system. We have about 85 minutes to enjoy this one. Raging heavy wet snow. It's the NAM at 63-72 so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is the nam run to get all weenies salivating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm ready for someone to tell me that the 72 hour nam is infinitely more reliable than the 84 hour nam. not really.. it's super bouncy in this range. maybe an avg of the last two runs heh. big diff off sref too.. op nam probably an outlier to at least some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 When Earthlight says mother of god, that is when you know 09/10 is happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is the nam run to get all weenies salivating. There's a drug for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is the nam run to get all weenies salivating. do you have a special model watching bib? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 not really.. it's super bouncy in this range. maybe an avg of the last two runs heh. big diff off sref too.. op nam probably an outlier to at least some degree. But like Mitch said the srefs do not use the 0Z data so they would not reflect it until the 3z or 9z srefs correct?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 not really.. it's super bouncy in this range. maybe an avg of the last two runs heh. big diff off sref too.. op nam probably an outlier to at least some degree. Yeah. I was kidding. I'm loving the budding bromances, but I ain't buying anyone flowers yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There's a drug for that. That is funny, careful Mapgirl may be offended and ream you out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS will go north and the Euro will go further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The non-banter thread is getting kind of hard to read at times. How many times can WinterWxLuvr say the same thing? lol Lots of people just repeating what others have already said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The best phrase on this board ever is "NOVA, DC, MD get crushed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 But like Mitch said the srefs do not use the 0Z data so they would not reflect it until the 3z or 9z srefs correct?. the other models might(?) be stabilizing. it's possible we're about to flip to consensus and the nam is leading the way but given how it usually performs im not sure it can be believed much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You just know that bullseye over CHO will drift north. Where is that weathervswife guy? I always love torturing him with thoughts of mixing while I get heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The non-banter thread is getting kind of hard to read at times. How many times can WinterWxLuvr say the same thing? lol Lots of people just repeating what others have already said. Dude, you need to give it a rest. Did it ever occur to you that sometimes people are posting at the same time? What is it you are expecting to read over there anyway? You waiting on somebody to tell you that tonights NAM is the solution you can hang your hat on? Put me on ignore if my posts offend you so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dude, you need to give it a rest. Did it ever occur to you that sometimes people are posting at the same time? What is it you are expecting to read over there anyway? You waiting on somebody to tell you that tonights NAM is the solution you can hang your hat on? Put me on ignore if my posts offend you so much. I had no problem with you until this winter. PM me if you have such an issue. You posted the same thought in different ways like 3 times in the main thread. We understand your thoughts... "Give it a rest" - I post far less than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the other models might(?) be stabilizing. it's possible we're about to flip to consensus and the nam is leading the way but given how it usually performs im not sure it can be believed much. If the GFS shows something even remotely similar then it might be time to start getting excited for a sizable storm. Plus not to sound like a weenie but i can almost guarantee that the higher qpf will move north in the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The clown maps show 10" DCA, Arlington, Alexandria. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 some people feel like they simply must post on every page even if they have absolutely nothing to say. we need a thread for just the good amateurs and mets to post stuff about the models where all crap is pruned. the other one can be for the pointless stuff. The funny thing is that I have never claimed to be a good forecaster. That's why the majority of the time I read. Honestly (this is not a dig against you) but you can be quite harsh sometimes. I do not understand when people lump me in with your terseness sometimes...I am generally very patient and easy going. I simply do not think that folks need to say "all solutions are on the table" in multiple posts over the course of like 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The clown maps show 10" DCA, Arlington, Alexandria. lol With the Nam you usally have to cut it in half but 5-6" is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I had no problem with you until this winter. PM me if you have such an issue. You posted the same thought in different ways like 3 times in the main thread. We understand your thoughts... "Give it a rest" - I post far less than you do. Check your post count. If you have a problem with me...deal with it. I have no idea what your issue is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the GFS shows something even remotely similar then it might be time to start getting excited for a sizable storm. Plus not to sound like a weenie but i can almost guarantee that the higher qpf will move north in the next 2 days. I'd be more willing to agree with that if this wasn't the nam from this far out. I'm going to wait for tonight's gfs and even the euro before I get myself really invested. That is funny, careful Mapgirl may be offended and ream you out. As far as this, I was trying to be subtle. . Me and Mapgirl are tight. We're going to go sledding together. Fozz too. And your village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 With the Nam you usally have to cut it in half but 5-6" is nothing to sneeze at. I'd take 2-4" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Check your post count. If you have a problem with me...deal with it. I have no idea what your issue is. Yeah...ok. Not overall count...plus, you can go ahead and subtract out all the posts I've made over the years in situations like this. I'm not going to fight with you. It's pretty clear you are solidified into your point of view and I respect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Stop fighting weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 the other models might(?) be stabilizing. it's possible we're about to flip to consensus and the nam is leading the way but given how it usually performs im not sure it can be believed much. Before either counting the NAm forecastrr and it's amounts ore totally dismissing them it's kind of nice looking for a consensus run on the strength of the 500h vort and where the confluence sets up. Heck the NAM has gone from a good hit, to nothing to a monster hit in the last three runs. That suggests the models still don't know how to handle the various impulses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah...ok. Not overall count...plus, you can go ahead and subtract out all the posts I've made over the years in situations like this. I'm not going to fight with you. It's pretty clear you are solidified into your point of view and I respect that. Look, peace, ok. I don't think I've posted anything that bad. Probably the most interesting thing about this whole storm to me is the variability of the whole thing. When I saw that 500 map on the NAM at 36, I knew (thought I did) that it was going to be vastly different. I guess I just got excited about being right for once. I am looking forward to what comes next. I wonder now if that vortex in the NE is just a bit faster to move out if this thing has a chance to go up the coast a bit. ???? I'm curious. It's not a sin. Remember its for fun. My thoughts on this storm will have zero bearing on what actually happens. It's been a sh*t winter, and I hope just this once we can all do a little celebrating. I hope it does get giddy in here. That means we are enjoying it. Anyway, I don't have an issue with you. I was just a bit perplexed as to why you had one with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Enough bickering, girls and boys. This was by far the best semi-fantasy run since 2010. Enjoy it and let's see how this pans out. 0Z GFS is on the door step. We have a long weekend with a Holiday on Monday and this is by far the most fun we have had all season finally tracking something. Grab a beer and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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