aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 D to the T is mighty aggressive with his first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like Barry Farms could see 3 to 6, while Mt Pleasant sees 2 to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 D to the T is mighty aggressive with his first guess You have to be liking the 4-8" for Leesburg even if there is basically no chance that is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 DT gives me 4-8 even though he still owes me for the 3-6 he forecasted for my area last weekend that totaled up to .25". lol his call's a bit weird in spots (like the 3-6 -- maybe more --- going to the coast) but overall i guess it's not a horrible place to start and fairly close to hpc experimental guidance. maybe he intentionally put the bubble north on that zone just east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would take 3 to 5 and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 awfully close to the pink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is a complex setup, luckily we have great pro forcasters in our region like StormChaserChuck that can sort it all out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is my best guess, I guess you could call me bullish with the storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is my best guess, I guess you could call me bullish with the storm too. You don't have to post your map in multiple threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You don't have to post your map in multiple threads. Does it show up on both? I'm new on this so I don't know exactly how it works here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Does it show up on both? I'm new on this so I don't know exactly how it works here... 2 threads. One model disco the other is for general chit chat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The maps being posted are not instilling any confidence for me. A touch early for serious "guesses," i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The maps being posted are not instilling any confidence for me. A touch early for serious "guesses," i think. You've misunderstood DT...he posts a guess...then a "serious" guess...then a "final" guess...then a call..."serious" call...first call...second call...final call...call revision (after storm ends). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The maps being posted are not instilling any confidence for me. A touch early for serious "guesses," i think. I'll make sure to post mine later. That should seal it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Kinda ironic tomorrow's Latin phrase on my calender: Alea iacta est! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I bet the 00Z tonight edges back north. Some are acting like the GFS and Euro are hundreds of miles away OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
843wx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is where Winter in Virginia has been this year. http://www.highknoblandform.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You've misunderstood DT...he posts a guess...then a "serious" guess...then a "final" guess...then a call..."serious" call...first call...second call...final call...call revision (after storm ends). I'll make sure to post mine later. That should seal it for you. lol DT is one thing but the weenie maps are another. It's almost as if some people feel an event is more impending if enough of us that at this point have clue nada make a map. So, yes, go at it Waterboy! I want to feel better about my chances. I'll give you my address so as to make sure I'm in the purple portion, ie, the 8-12" on your map legend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I bet the 00Z tonight edges back north. Some are acting like the GFS and Euro are hundreds of miles away OTS. I kinda got that impression too (people thinking that the globals were at odd with each other). When you break them down, they are quite close in their solutions. Especially @ 500. Focusing exclusively on the precip shield placement is bad analysis imo. We'll see what happens with 0z but I was encouraged by the 18z gfs slowing the system down and being colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I will be drunk for the 00Z suite and plan to make tons of off-topic posts no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Kinda ironic tomorrow's Latin phrase on my calender: Alea iacta est! I can't read latin at all but I can take a guess. Does it say "The MA is royally screwed and enjoy your sun angle and high clouds"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Kinda ironic tomorrow's Latin phrase on my calender: Alea iacta est! By tomorrow afternoon, it probably will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Damn, I was hoping after a few beers things had improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I agree that the temp profile has improved, but the precip amounts are noticeably lighter. My concern is that we just can't seem to get a good 2-4/3-6 inch snow around here anymore. We either get blitzed or we wind up with < 1 inch crap. I would love a moderate snow event, but the trends have been for less precip and any further south trend gets us to fringe state. Here's to hoping for a better model day tomorrow. MDstorm I know this is OT but I hope you are just referring to this year. Otherwise I'm afraid you have forgotten last January and then 09-10...we can certainly get good solid events. Just harder in a Nina. It's not like we will never get that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 when, again, does the 0Z NAM come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I will be drunk for the 00Z suite and plan to make tons of off-topic posts no matter what happens. I'm going to be ****faced.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I can't read latin at all but I can take a guess. Does it say "The MA is royally screwed and enjoy your sun angle and high clouds"? Yes It actually means the die has been cast, said by Caesar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Is it cool if I start a snow total guess/maps thread? Anyone else for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Is it cool if I start a snow total guess/maps thread? Anyone else for this? I'm guessing most of the weenie guesses could go in here. Might make it a good place to put all the generally weeniefied and crappy maps into. Although, maybe a tad early for people to start going map crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I might make a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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