psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Do you remember any memorable southern storms that missed to the south? I can't remember any, but I don't tend to remember misses. The storm that I can't forget is march of 09. I can remember several "moderate" snowstorms that missed to our south and hit NC or southern VA in the last 15 years however its hard to pin down dates because I tend not to remember the misses with much detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I can remember several "moderate" snowstorms that missed to our south and hit NC or southern VA in the last 15 years however its hard to pin down dates because I tend not to remember the misses with much detail. Jan 02, Feb 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At least the GFS looks like it will not go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Bob Ryan - Adam's Snow Excitement Factor still holding at 2 for Sunday but track looking less and less like any big coastal @abc7news11 @adamcaskey Glad to see WJLA goes with one set of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Bob Ryan - Glad to see WJLA goes with one set of model runs. it's kinda common unfortunately. at least they don't have a snowstorm football game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 everything goes south.. "right where we want it" we are a positive bunch at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it's kinda common unfortunately. at least they don't have a snowstorm football game. I guess I just expected better out of a met who is largely considered a "God" by local lay people. It's irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's all going according to plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 everything goes south.. "right where we want it" we are a positive bunch at least it depends what you are looking for.....I like where I am sitting right now, but I am not looking for a grand slam or hail mary....these runs weren't great for people who may be looking for a big wrapped up noreaster with KU totals...I know on the GFS I am quite happy being on the northern stripe of deform and the slower start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I guess I just expected better out of a met who is largely considered a "God" by local lay people. It's irresponsible. well im not sure what people expect either.. we all make up our thoughts based of guidance or guidance + climo. i think perhaps a problem is the feeling that a 24/7 info feed is necessary. most media would probably be better off not updating their thoughts every 6 hours or even every 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it depends what you are looking for.....I like where I am sitting right now, but I am not looking for a grand slam or hail mary....these runs weren't great for people who may be looking for a big wrapped up noreaster with KU totals...I know on the GFS I am quite happy being on the northern stripe of deform and the slower start im certainly not looking for a ku either.. the smart call if you're so inclined is to run to nina snow climo knowing we don't get giant snowstorms in it, which is i think what you've done since i dont personally believe anyone can call a snow range 6 days out. im not saying our position is horrible.. i suppose spinning positive is more enjoyable than always looking for the downsides. i know what it takes and where we stand.. im just not sold yet i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 well im not sure what people expect either.. we all make up our thoughts based of guidance or guidance + climo. i think perhaps a problem is the feeling that a 24/7 info feed is necessary. most media would probably be better off not updating their thoughts every 6 hours or even every 12. I agree. I am old enough to remember when weather basically came out once a day -- at the 6 p.m. news. I also remember when 5 day forecasts could contain broad mentions of snow or rain up until a day or two before an event. Accumulation maps usually just appeared the night before a snow was to begin. Definitely some value in that. But that could certainly lead to some huge busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 im certainly not looking for a ku either.. the smart call if you're so inclined is to run to nina snow climo knowing we don't get giant snowstorms in it, which is i think what you've done since i dont personally believe anyone can call a snow range 6 days out. im not saying our position is horrible.. i suppose spinning positive is more enjoyable than always looking for the downsides. i know what it takes and where we stand.. im just not sold yet i guess. There's still a lot of uncertainty....My call was more for fun.... it was a low confidence edcuated guess..There was a lot more involved than just running Nina climo, but it is still just a wild guess.....I don't think anyone is spinning anything....I have been following models in this region for 10 years...There is no spin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 There's still a lot of uncertainty....My call was more for fun.... it was a low confidence edcuated guess..There was a lot more involved than just running Nina climo, but it is still just a wild guess.....I don't think anyone is spinning anything....I have been following models in this region for 10 years...There is no spin.... I posted a breakdown in the model thread but 18z gfs is clearly better for more snow and less rain than the 12z. The shift in the 32 degree 2m line is pretty drastic. I'm probably reading too far into it but it's hard to ignore. Just compare 2m @ 75-78 on 18z and 2m @ 78081 on the 12z and you'll see what I mean. I'll take less precip overall anyday in exchange for a subfreezing surface. 12z would prob have much more snow fall out of the sky but 18z would have more on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 There's still a lot of uncertainty....My call was more for fun.... it was a low confidence edcuated guess..There was a lot more involved than just running Nina climo, but it is still just a wild guess.....I don't think anyone is spinning anything....I have been following models in this region for 10 years...There is no spin.... i wasnt really referring to you re: spin. still it's fairly apparent from a number of folks. i know you know your stuff.. that's not what my comment meant re a d6 call/guess/whatever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 D to the T is mighty aggressive with his first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like Barry Farms could see 3 to 6, while Mt Pleasant sees 2 to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 D to the T is mighty aggressive with his first guess You have to be liking the 4-8" for Leesburg even if there is basically no chance that is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 DT gives me 4-8 even though he still owes me for the 3-6 he forecasted for my area last weekend that totaled up to .25". lol his call's a bit weird in spots (like the 3-6 -- maybe more --- going to the coast) but overall i guess it's not a horrible place to start and fairly close to hpc experimental guidance. maybe he intentionally put the bubble north on that zone just east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would take 3 to 5 and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i wasnt really referring to you re: spin. still it's fairly apparent from a number of folks. i know you know your stuff.. that's not what my comment meant re a d6 call/guess/whatever it is. Anyone who thinks a snowstorm is a lock is incorrigible at this point and not really worth our time I guess...I don't think there are many though....I think 90% of people know what we are dealing with and the huge bust potential....I honestly am not discouraged by the 12z/18z runs here....I think getting deform to flush central VA and miss us is pretty unusual....I feel pretty good that every model has QPF reaching well north of here..I absolutely could be wrong, but I expect a consenus jog north at some point and the precip shield to expand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 awfully close to the pink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is a complex setup, luckily we have great pro forcasters in our region like StormChaserChuck that can sort it all out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is my best guess, I guess you could call me bullish with the storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is my best guess, I guess you could call me bullish with the storm too. You don't have to post your map in multiple threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You don't have to post your map in multiple threads. Does it show up on both? I'm new on this so I don't know exactly how it works here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Does it show up on both? I'm new on this so I don't know exactly how it works here... 2 threads. One model disco the other is for general chit chat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The maps being posted are not instilling any confidence for me. A touch early for serious "guesses," i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The maps being posted are not instilling any confidence for me. A touch early for serious "guesses," i think. You've misunderstood DT...he posts a guess...then a "serious" guess...then a "final" guess...then a call..."serious" call...first call...second call...final call...call revision (after storm ends). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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