ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 long range nam is win win.. if it's good put it in the good camp. if it's bad, it's the long range nam. We have a winner, all jokes aside though this is starting to not look so great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think we should use the NAM as our final forecast. Face it DC...it's not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I thought it a pretty good post in terms or what he was saying about ninas. The northern stream tends to screw us in two different ways, each equally effective as teh northern stream is so active its hard to get things to phase if there is nay hint of a southern stream and if there isn't then things go to our north. agreed.. im not going to deny there is a long term tendancy for storms just to our south to sneak in as we get to gametime but even so it can't be assumed as fact "because it always happens". for one that's not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 psuhoffman has arrived just in time to break down the demise of the storm in epic detail run-by-run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 psuhoffman has arrived just in time to break down the demise of the storm in epic detail run-by-run. This looks like the pscrapu storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 And the GFS has begun. Good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EE rule. Better luck next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 agreed.. im not going to deny there is a long term tendancy for storms just to our south to sneak in as we get to gametime but even so it can't be assumed as fact "because it always happens". for one that's not true. Do you remember any memorable southern storms that missed to the south? I can't remember any, but I don't tend to remember misses. The storm that I can't forget is march of 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No, but there were a lot of Srefs members earlier today with the same solution. I don't think it changes anything from what I posted earlier. I was more or less posting what I thought it was going to do. I also am like JI, I want all my models to show a storm so I can write like I know what I'm talking about. You would be dangerous if you knew what you were talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 And the GFS has begun. Good timing. I was just about to say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 And the GFS has begun. Good timing. If it craps out we will then have no models showing a storm for DC north. Funny how quick the worm can turn in model-land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Damn nam dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS is going to go south. I feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS is going to go south. I feel it. A betting man would agree strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Do you remember any memorable southern storms that missed to the south? I can't remember any, but I don't tend to remember misses. The storm that I can't forget is march of 09. not necessarily off the top of my head but that doesnt mean much. for one a lot of the storms that missed to the south ended up rain or not a big deal because they did not phase on time etc. dec 26 sorta did.. it was a miller a i guess but it acted more like a miller b with strong redevlopment in a place that was not very good for us. but i think in general a storm that creeps too far north would be more memorable anyway as we'd first go through feeling like we were going to get it good, and it's running into colder air usually as it climbs in latitude so it's more likely to be snow, just to name a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 psuhoffman has arrived just in time to break down the demise of the storm in epic detail run-by-run. I have no "gut feelings" on this one actually. I have been really busy lately, and away skiing in Colorado until yesterday so I have not really been able to digest everything yet. I was just pointing out that our normal north trend is our friend feelings do not always work well in a Nina. My thoughts are supression is a much bigger risk then it going too far north but thats obvious, boundary tems suck so that wont help, and the northern stream flow sucks as you would expect in a Nina pattern. However, flukes do happen, Feb 2006 and March 2010 come to mind and this is getting into the time period where if we get a storm in a Nina seems to always be Mid Feb through Mid March so maybe we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Do you remember any memorable southern storms that missed to the south? I can't remember any, but I don't tend to remember misses. The storm that I can't forget is march of 09. I can remember several "moderate" snowstorms that missed to our south and hit NC or southern VA in the last 15 years however its hard to pin down dates because I tend not to remember the misses with much detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I can remember several "moderate" snowstorms that missed to our south and hit NC or southern VA in the last 15 years however its hard to pin down dates because I tend not to remember the misses with much detail. Jan 02, Feb 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At least the GFS looks like it will not go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Bob Ryan - Adam's Snow Excitement Factor still holding at 2 for Sunday but track looking less and less like any big coastal @abc7news11 @adamcaskey Glad to see WJLA goes with one set of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Bob Ryan - Glad to see WJLA goes with one set of model runs. it's kinda common unfortunately. at least they don't have a snowstorm football game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 everything goes south.. "right where we want it" we are a positive bunch at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it's kinda common unfortunately. at least they don't have a snowstorm football game. I guess I just expected better out of a met who is largely considered a "God" by local lay people. It's irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's all going according to plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I guess I just expected better out of a met who is largely considered a "God" by local lay people. It's irresponsible. well im not sure what people expect either.. we all make up our thoughts based of guidance or guidance + climo. i think perhaps a problem is the feeling that a 24/7 info feed is necessary. most media would probably be better off not updating their thoughts every 6 hours or even every 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it depends what you are looking for.....I like where I am sitting right now, but I am not looking for a grand slam or hail mary....these runs weren't great for people who may be looking for a big wrapped up noreaster with KU totals...I know on the GFS I am quite happy being on the northern stripe of deform and the slower start im certainly not looking for a ku either.. the smart call if you're so inclined is to run to nina snow climo knowing we don't get giant snowstorms in it, which is i think what you've done since i dont personally believe anyone can call a snow range 6 days out. im not saying our position is horrible.. i suppose spinning positive is more enjoyable than always looking for the downsides. i know what it takes and where we stand.. im just not sold yet i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 well im not sure what people expect either.. we all make up our thoughts based of guidance or guidance + climo. i think perhaps a problem is the feeling that a 24/7 info feed is necessary. most media would probably be better off not updating their thoughts every 6 hours or even every 12. I agree. I am old enough to remember when weather basically came out once a day -- at the 6 p.m. news. I also remember when 5 day forecasts could contain broad mentions of snow or rain up until a day or two before an event. Accumulation maps usually just appeared the night before a snow was to begin. Definitely some value in that. But that could certainly lead to some huge busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 There's still a lot of uncertainty....My call was more for fun.... it was a low confidence edcuated guess..There was a lot more involved than just running Nina climo, but it is still just a wild guess.....I don't think anyone is spinning anything....I have been following models in this region for 10 years...There is no spin.... I posted a breakdown in the model thread but 18z gfs is clearly better for more snow and less rain than the 12z. The shift in the 32 degree 2m line is pretty drastic. I'm probably reading too far into it but it's hard to ignore. Just compare 2m @ 75-78 on 18z and 2m @ 78081 on the 12z and you'll see what I mean. I'll take less precip overall anyday in exchange for a subfreezing surface. 12z would prob have much more snow fall out of the sky but 18z would have more on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 There's still a lot of uncertainty....My call was more for fun.... it was a low confidence edcuated guess..There was a lot more involved than just running Nina climo, but it is still just a wild guess.....I don't think anyone is spinning anything....I have been following models in this region for 10 years...There is no spin.... i wasnt really referring to you re: spin. still it's fairly apparent from a number of folks. i know you know your stuff.. that's not what my comment meant re a d6 call/guess/whatever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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