WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well...that was fun for 6 hours. Back to standard Mid-Atlantic snow lovers operating procedures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 #confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That it is. I'm planning on being in Harrisonburg this weekend. Sounds about right. Really don't have to go too much further west than Charlottesville before you get into a good area....maybe 30-45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 #confluence #FAITHINTHEFLAKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 #FAITHINTHEFLAKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #itneversnowsindcanymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sounds about right. Really don't have to go too much further west than Charlottesville before you get into a good area....maybe 30-45 minutes. According to the Euro cancel my earlier statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 why is everyone so caught up in dictating conversation nonstop.. there is no real pbp here. people can mention models in this thread. idk but it's pretty annoying...too many tight wraps here. if i was a mod here, i'd be more annoyed with the people that keep telling the mods to do a better job than i would be with the other posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In the majority of scenarios where the fine folks in central and southern VA were in the bullseye at this range with us fringed, at game time they were reporting rain or sleet with us under warnings for heavy snow. I am just a weenie but there is little doubt in my mind that will be what we see develop 24 hours out on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the only issue is the euro has been south more than it's been north. it's possible the north runs were hiccups. im not going to pretend i have any solid idea of what will happen--no one does imo. i could give scenarios but that's a lot of typing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is going to be wild. Mitch even mentioned 3/2009. That would really just about sum this winter up for me. If Virginia gets a 3/2009 again, and I get the same results, I hope everyone who gets snow is without power for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In the majority of scenarios where the fine folks in central and southern VA were in the bullseye at this range with us fringed, at game time they were reporting rain or sleet with us under warnings for heavy snow. I am just a weenie but there is little doubt in my mind that will be what we see develop 24 hours out on the models. I hope so, but this is only 2.5 days away.......it's not like we're 5 days out. If we don't get a nice northward shift by tomorrow afternoon, then we may be screwed. And it would be fitting since other awful winters like 01-02 and 72-73 had a good southern snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In the majority of scenarios where the fine folks in central and southern VA were in the bullseye at this range with us fringed, at game time they were reporting rain or sleet with us under warnings for heavy snow. I am just a weenie but there is little doubt in my mind that will be what we see develop 24 hours out on the models. I just posted this in the main thread but it's good banter too. I would estimate (with no hard data) that 3 out of 4 times the models jog south @ 72 the final solution ends up further N. Same applies in reverse when they jog N. Maybe 1 out of 4 times is ends up being further south (could be lower than that too. I try to forget N jogs and rain storms in winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's be honest, we're not going to have a real good handle on this until sometime Saturday. Anything between now and then is just a good guess and not necessarily an educated one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is going to be wild. Mitch even mentioned 3/2009. That would really just about sum this winter up for me. If Virginia gets a 3/2009 again, and I get the same results, I hope everyone who gets snow is without power for a month. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm riding the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm riding the 18z NAM This is about the right time to start watching the nam. Prob not till 0z but if 18z looks better than the 12z euro, I'm riding it for a full 8 seconds, wrasslin' it to the ground, and hog-tying it ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I am the default "weather guy" among my work colleagues and friends/family (thanks to this place) and just got peppered with questions from one such about the huge nor'easter she heard was coming. I gently said best guess (she lives in York) would be an inch or two of wet snow at this point in time (if anything at all). She responded at how that was disappointing given that Foot's Forecast is apparently talking about this massive storm. Oh Foot's, how you amuse. It isn't 09/10 anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm riding the 18z NAM I'm riding it with a whip until it bucks me off. Then I'll jump on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm riding it with a whip until it bucks me off. Then I'll jump on the GFS. looks like a full on ma rodeo in the works. with all the pent up demand for a "real" tracking session, this place is going to be on tilt for the next 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Really. Dual pol update during the storm.... WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Really. Dual pol update during the storm.... WTF There are other radars available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ooh, the weenie life raft has been inflated--"poorly initialized" lol- and we're quick to jump to the immediate conclusion that because of this the euro should have been further north if it was initialized properly......well, what about further south? Glass half full is much more fun though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I smell at Dec 26th repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I smell at Dec 26th repeat dec 26 had a massive anomalous northern stream trough. not really that kind of setup this time. could get similar results i guess except that this will miss north of here it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I smell at Dec 26th repeat How dare you mention such things!! lol Honestly, that was the biggest stinger for me. I'm getting older now so my longterm memory isn't as good as it used to be. I have such vivid memories of how bummed I was when it was pretty clear we were in for a major bustola. My sis lives in manahattan and she texts me something like "oh my god it's snowing so hard I can't see the building next door. We must have a foot already. how much did you get?". ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 dec 26 had a massive anomalous northern stream trough. not really that kind of setup this time. could get similar results i guess except that this will miss north of here it seems. i was mainly just upping my post count in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 dec 26 had a massive anomalous northern stream trough. not really that kind of setup this time. could get similar results i guess except that this will miss north of here it seems. Which was the part thing about DEC 26th that sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ooh, the weenie life raft has been inflated--"poorly initialized" HPC are weenies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i said that? I think he was saying that based on their bull'ish forecast posted above and not based on anything you said, though I could be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 HPC are weenies? They over react that way alot. Funny that they said it would be Friday before we knew anything. Amazing that it seems that that will be the case. Edit: It is perfectly clear from the HPC discussion that they are not impressed with the EC intitialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.