yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just a tad difference between 06z at 75 and 12z at 69 in regards to the QPF field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Randy and Ian have not answered yet but i am curious to know if we get 30" from now till the end of winter will he at least be allowed back in for a week to crow about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ah what the heck...... low over LA is 3mb stronger, hp to the N is 2mb stronger @ 1026 and heaviest precip is further N into NC @ 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Adam also said he wouldn't have gone with that high of totals however Actually, I think there will be a 6-12 swath somewhere, I just wouldn't put it right over Philly at this time. The more I've looked at things today, the more I like I-81 in VA/WV/MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually, I think there will be a 6-12 swath somewhere, I just wouldn't put it right over Philly at this time. The more I've looked at things today, the more I like I-81 in VA/WV/MD That is not what you said earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Until Ian makes the rule or says otherwise, my vote is for model talk to go in the model thread...even if it is a model on his naughty list. generally i think so. tho imo people can post whatever they want here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually, I think there will be a 6-12 swath somewhere, I just wouldn't put it right over Philly at this time. The more I've looked at things today, the more I like I-81 in VA/WV/MD Oh lord you just made Winterwxluvr change his pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Randy and Ian have not answered yet but i am curious to know if we get 30" from now till the end of winter will he at least be allowed back in for a week to crow about it. if we get 30" of snow then bb might be onto something.. it would be unprecedented just about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 figured.. not sure why we need everything in one thread. i don't personally care to see the panel by panel model discussion most of the time. i'll just continue mainly posting in the banter thread. at least it's not randomly moderated. Jesus, people are so picky lol... and im not talking about you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually, I think there will be a 6-12 swath somewhere, I just wouldn't put it right over Philly at this time. The more I've looked at things today, the more I like I-81 in VA/WV/MD Those higher elevation spots look pretty good actually. Agreed. That area near the VA/MD border looked nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Until Ian makes the rule or says otherwise, my vote is for model talk to go in the model thread...even if it is a model on his naughty list. Model discussion should be in the model thread, if it needs to be deleted, you will take care of it with that itchy delete finger of yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 if we get 30" of snow then bb might be onto something.. it would be unprecedented just about. Only time will tell but i think Vegas would give you 1000 to 1 odds on that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 if we get 30" of snow then bb might be onto something.. it would be unprecedented just about. It was a pure weenie call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 if we get 30" of snow then bb might be onto something.. it would be unprecedented just about. Or it could be dumb luck. All of us have had it now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jesus, people are so picky lol... and im not talking about you subforums killed the superthread. lolz. it's all about numbers... a lot of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Those higher elevation spots look pretty good actually. Agreed. That area near the VA/MD border looked nice. Sucks you left Hagerstown Randy, i assume you are going to your sister's for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It was a pure weenie call it's also extremely unlikely unless we get it all in this storm. if we get this storm it's probably it as far as good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it's also extremely unlikely unless we get it all in this storm. if we get this storm it's probably it as far as good ones. Wasn't Matt saying last night that the Euro wanted to do it again next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually, I think there will be a 6-12 swath somewhere, I just wouldn't put it right over Philly at this time. The more I've looked at things today, the more I like I-81 in VA/WV/MD I thought you were my friend Too far W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wasn't Matt saying last night that the Euro wanted to do it again next weekend? maybe havent looked/seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 maybe havent looked/seen Yes he did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I just posted late run nam analysis in the model thread. Please.....don't 5 post me. I get one get out of jail free card because I've been on my best behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Here is JB's whole conversation from this morning: "aspects of the weekend storm. The euro ensemble is directly on top of my track and the snow amounts are shown here. Please remember a storm like this is more likely to correct north than south as modeling is notorious for having too much northern branch in addition the water IS VERY WARM OFF THE EAST COAST, another factor that may aid in a shift north, but probably no more than 50 miles. This storm should go NORTH of Cape Hatteras but SOUTH of Norfolk. The storm is near MSY at 18z Sat and near the Mouth of the Chesapeake 18z Sunday. This is a pattern recognition event, with little wiggle room south and a bit more north. I want to emphasize you are not seeing a trend yet, nor is the faulty input yesterday causing the GFS shift south. Why would the euro shift north the way it has if it were. Its simply the modeling trying to get a hold of the players, listed 2 days ago and hone in. The argument for further north is 3 fold 1) most storms come further north on the east coast in Positive nao 2) The models look very strange in the great lakes in front running maxes 3) The southern system should be stronger, and pump the ridge more in front of it In any case l the 3 inch area runs through the big cities of I-95 from va north. with a 6 inch swath in there. I have had this track from the get go and think if I am going to move it, it will be north but not by all that much ( 50-75 miles. Again the euro ENSEMBLES have shifted and come to me, so confidence that I am identifying the right problem at least and the model is starting to see it is high. The 18z position Sunday is the Euro The water is very warm off the east coast! Heavy rains 1-2 inches near the track and severe weather is likely in the warm sector sat and sun" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I like where the 84 hr NAM snow map points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yes he did I think Ian meant he did not see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I just posted late run nam analysis in the model thread. Please.....don't 5 post me. I get one get out of jail free card because I've been on my best behavior. I did too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Model discussion should be in the model thread, if it needs to be deleted, you will take care of it with that itchy delete finger of yours Maybe Ellinwood can moderate the Banter thread, but I'm not going to unless someone say something very inappropriate (i.e., that breaks the broader board rules). I'd just prefer not to go to the Banter thread for the NAM and the Model thread for the GFS and back and forth. Wasn't Matt saying last night that the Euro wanted to do it again next weekend? 0z Euro is pretty active storm-wise. Has a big cutter mid next week and then another coastal Day 9-10 plus another storm developing over the Rockies at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe I am your good luck charm up here.. I just moved from North Carolina to MD for an internship. Hope this model trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe Ellinwood can moderate the Banter thread, but I'm not going to unless someone say something very inappropriate (i.e., that breaks the broader board rules). I'd just prefer not to go to the Banter thread for the NAM and the Model thread for the GFS and back and forth. 0z Euro is pretty active storm-wise. Has a big cutter mid next week and then another coastal Day 9-10 plus another storm developing over the Rockies at the same time. model run dissection should be over there but ppl can comment on whatever they want here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I like where the 84 hr NAM snow map points. Snow hole just over Howard County? I'm throwing that out. Invoking Ian/zwyts level NAM rage on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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