Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 if we get 30" of snow then bb might be onto something.. it would be unprecedented just about. Or it could be dumb luck. All of us have had it now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jesus, people are so picky lol... and im not talking about you subforums killed the superthread. lolz. it's all about numbers... a lot of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Those higher elevation spots look pretty good actually. Agreed. That area near the VA/MD border looked nice. Sucks you left Hagerstown Randy, i assume you are going to your sister's for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It was a pure weenie call it's also extremely unlikely unless we get it all in this storm. if we get this storm it's probably it as far as good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 it's also extremely unlikely unless we get it all in this storm. if we get this storm it's probably it as far as good ones. Wasn't Matt saying last night that the Euro wanted to do it again next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually, I think there will be a 6-12 swath somewhere, I just wouldn't put it right over Philly at this time. The more I've looked at things today, the more I like I-81 in VA/WV/MD I thought you were my friend Too far W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wasn't Matt saying last night that the Euro wanted to do it again next weekend? maybe havent looked/seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 maybe havent looked/seen Yes he did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I just posted late run nam analysis in the model thread. Please.....don't 5 post me. I get one get out of jail free card because I've been on my best behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Here is JB's whole conversation from this morning: "aspects of the weekend storm. The euro ensemble is directly on top of my track and the snow amounts are shown here. Please remember a storm like this is more likely to correct north than south as modeling is notorious for having too much northern branch in addition the water IS VERY WARM OFF THE EAST COAST, another factor that may aid in a shift north, but probably no more than 50 miles. This storm should go NORTH of Cape Hatteras but SOUTH of Norfolk. The storm is near MSY at 18z Sat and near the Mouth of the Chesapeake 18z Sunday. This is a pattern recognition event, with little wiggle room south and a bit more north. I want to emphasize you are not seeing a trend yet, nor is the faulty input yesterday causing the GFS shift south. Why would the euro shift north the way it has if it were. Its simply the modeling trying to get a hold of the players, listed 2 days ago and hone in. The argument for further north is 3 fold 1) most storms come further north on the east coast in Positive nao 2) The models look very strange in the great lakes in front running maxes 3) The southern system should be stronger, and pump the ridge more in front of it In any case l the 3 inch area runs through the big cities of I-95 from va north. with a 6 inch swath in there. I have had this track from the get go and think if I am going to move it, it will be north but not by all that much ( 50-75 miles. Again the euro ENSEMBLES have shifted and come to me, so confidence that I am identifying the right problem at least and the model is starting to see it is high. The 18z position Sunday is the Euro The water is very warm off the east coast! Heavy rains 1-2 inches near the track and severe weather is likely in the warm sector sat and sun" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I like where the 84 hr NAM snow map points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yes he did I think Ian meant he did not see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I just posted late run nam analysis in the model thread. Please.....don't 5 post me. I get one get out of jail free card because I've been on my best behavior. I did too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Model discussion should be in the model thread, if it needs to be deleted, you will take care of it with that itchy delete finger of yours Maybe Ellinwood can moderate the Banter thread, but I'm not going to unless someone say something very inappropriate (i.e., that breaks the broader board rules). I'd just prefer not to go to the Banter thread for the NAM and the Model thread for the GFS and back and forth. Wasn't Matt saying last night that the Euro wanted to do it again next weekend? 0z Euro is pretty active storm-wise. Has a big cutter mid next week and then another coastal Day 9-10 plus another storm developing over the Rockies at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe I am your good luck charm up here.. I just moved from North Carolina to MD for an internship. Hope this model trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe Ellinwood can moderate the Banter thread, but I'm not going to unless someone say something very inappropriate (i.e., that breaks the broader board rules). I'd just prefer not to go to the Banter thread for the NAM and the Model thread for the GFS and back and forth. 0z Euro is pretty active storm-wise. Has a big cutter mid next week and then another coastal Day 9-10 plus another storm developing over the Rockies at the same time. model run dissection should be over there but ppl can comment on whatever they want here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I like where the 84 hr NAM snow map points. Snow hole just over Howard County? I'm throwing that out. Invoking Ian/zwyts level NAM rage on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Jb's latest snow map: @BigJoeBastardi: Here is snow map for weekend. No changes on storm tracks, models will waffle but I wont.. yet http://t.co/ZqNNXjJf He must be showing porn because I can't access the map from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 He must be showing porn because I can't access the map from work. It's from Twitter and alot of work places block it. It has us in the 6" area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wasn't Matt saying last night that the Euro wanted to do it again next weekend? yes he did mention another storm on Euro for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It is a pretty good run, looks very similar to the 06Z gfs to me though the latter would start as rain. Would be a sloppy snow but would be our biggest snow this year if either verified. The models do seem to be converging towards a solution though I wouldn't be surprised by a hiccup or two. I am starting to feel we are going to see a snowstorm that can completely cover the grass this winter, but would like to see Wes give us his 'feeling giddy' approval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I am starting to feel we are going to see a snowstorm that can completely cover the grass this winter, but would like to see Wes give us his 'feeling giddy' approval. looks that way for most or all of us .. I'm gathering my camera gear and charging up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks that way for most or all of us .. I'm gathering my camera gear and charging up. About time you got to use your Christmas gift, i was starting to feel like it would be 2013 before you had a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 About time you got to use your Christmas gift, i was starting to feel like it would be 2013 before you had a chance. Well he'd probably have gotten to use it anyway during severe season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wasn't Matt saying last night that the Euro wanted to do it again next weekend? You have to wonder if we could potentially entering our much hoped for "little winter period". MJO is into phase 1 and forecast to make it to 2 before fizzling. It's been forecast to fizzle since phase 7 so who really knows. DTK (i'm pretty sure) made an awesome response to my mjo post a couple days ago about the lag effect. The NAO responds about 15 days after MJO phase 7 and 8-1-2 is generally colder on the EC. I don't know nearly enough about this stuff to make any type of lr prediction but you gotta wonder what's in store over the next couple of weeks. Euro is pointing towards more storminess already. I'm going to keep a close eye on the nao. If that damn thing goes negative AND we have split flow like we're having now AND we have cold air.......yikes. I shouldn't even be bringing this stuff up. Where's bb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's from Twitter and alot of work places block it. It has us in the 6" area. Thanks, I got it. The students here taught me how to circumvent the system. Future hackers ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I am starting to feel we are going to see a snowstorm that can completely cover the grass this winter, but would like to see Wes give us his 'feeling giddy' approval. That about sums up this winter - getting an event that will cover the grass. You took the words out of my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Where's bb? bbanned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I've been saying I would be happy with one storm that gave us enough to let me take my boys out for a bit of fun in the snow. I'm hoping this is the one. out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks that way for most or all of us .. I'm gathering my camera gear and charging up. I'm going to be in Canaan this weekend, and will be taking my camera. So even though I hope this area gets slaughtered while I'm gone, I hope there's enough left for the valley up there to get some residual stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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