ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Low confidence prediction: Models converge on a general track idea by 0z runs tomorrow night...... Then they slowly jog north and west on Friday and Saturday... by Saturday afternoon models are printing out a general 0.5 - 0.75" for DC metro.... Of rain or snow is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Those clown maps sure do make a weenie happy. If it was 24 or 36 hours out my weenie might be a little more excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We've probably seen the most extreme solutions already so it safe to say that 0z will bring a brand new set of ideas. It's probably also safe to say that the euro is too far s&e and the gfs is too far n&w. I like zwyts' low confidence forecast alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well you must secretly hope we do well too, because CTBlizz loves to talk sh*t about us. i hope everyone just gets along to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Can't edit from my phone. 0z will prob NOT bring a new set of ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I agree and don't think we'll know but the NAmis not a bad solution. Too phased might give a GFS solution. It's a fine line the models have to tread. The northern shortwave has to get ahead of th esouthern one intially but not be so strong that it shoves the low track south. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro shift north tonight. Wes is trying to get me to stay up late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wes is trying to get me to stay up late. Yup looks like a 2 a.m bedtime for most tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Shes coming. Euro gfs comprimise i mentioned today for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 good luck getting 10:1 to verify that map. chop in half or so? i think this run supports the rates needed especially if it comes around then or even a little earlier should it be right. would like to see a more energetic 500 passage but it's a good one. maybe snow the consistency of jan 26 last yr... hot and soupy., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm gonna go with 0.00" final call, next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cmc is nice for you folks. Move the southern boundary to include more of va and it's similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cmc is nice for you folks. Move the southern boundary to include more of va and it's similar. Cmc was nice, especially for RIC proper. I'd assume things will be NW of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 final call lol..i remember that storm. Was 50 degrees at noon...snow fell at night and in the morning when i woke up...i was shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 DT just issued a *RUT ROH RAGGY* for the GGEM and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ..stop posting....just stop...your posts are terrible Shame you can't ban me here, then you would be less annoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Probably, i remember looking at the NOAA average snowfall map and i thought they averaged 4-5" more than us. And i annoyed Matt for no reason then. Assuming you live slightly west of me, your average is about 25-26" according to this map. Leesburg apparently gets 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Assuming you live slightly west of me, your average is about 25-26" according to this map. Leesburg apparently gets 23. I am in that circle that the guy in Pikesville circled the other day so i am a bit southwest of you. So i still get more than Leesburg, that is nice to know. Now i do not have to resent Ji anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Assuming you live slightly west of me, your average is about 25-26" according to this map. Leesburg apparently gets 23. The death valley of Frederick. I felt like we were eternally screwed while living there. Yet you look back at storm maps and see the massive accumulations in 96, 03 and the 2010 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It will be a clipper by tonight... either that or a rain soaked apps runner. Either way... this is not happening. It is 2012 and this S%@! is not happening. (this is the Banter thread so please don't 5 post me LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm now worrying about something going wrong today too. I love the concensus in the models right now. Can we hop in a time machine to Sat night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 06Z GFS is by far the closest thing we've had to model porn recently. Cold with heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 06Z GFS is by far the closest thing we've had to model porn recently. Cold with heavy precip. From Valley low to mountain high. Hope we haven't peaked too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thanks to the red taggers and learned amatuers for the good discussion related to the model runs last night. That was interesting reading this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The death valley of Frederick. I felt like we were eternally screwed while living there. Yet you look back at storm maps and see the massive accumulations in 96, 03 and the 2010 storms. we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Our reaction based on last nights runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol..i remember that storm. Was 50 degrees at noon...snow fell at night and in the morning when i woke up...i was shocked It was so warm out here that day, I remember playing pick-up b-ball outdoors that afternoon (Sunday) and into the late evening. We only stopped once it got too dusk. Someone mentioned a forecast of snow that night, and the rest of us thought they were crazy. Incredibly, the snow started only a couple hours after the cloulds moved in, and it snowed HARD. It was right up there w/ the heaviest snow I've ever seen. We ended up with 14 inches, and most of it was gone by that afternoon; it must've been near 50 that day. At least we got one day off school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro snowfall maps - snow only, there would be some precip to fall before it changes to snow. Timing 15z - 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 are those above maps showing snow rate? If so, is that inches/hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6Z GFS... most of WV takes a big hit Too early to be in the target though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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