mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not so sure I'd agree the SREFs have it coming north look at the 700mb RH....it's sliding off the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+21UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+MEANSPRD&pname=700_rh&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i'd almost sooner look at sref than nam at this range but mainly because i sorta want a mean right now till the models lock in a bit more. would have to see indiv members tho to at least know how the camps line up. given early stream interaction it seems like the sref would want to fall more in the gfs camp. i'd say you're right..w/o see individual members the mean suggests many of them are going to have more northern stream involvement like the gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i'd almost sooner look at sref than nam at this range but mainly because i sorta want a mean right now till the models lock in a bit more. would have to see indiv members tho to at least know how the camps line up. given early stream interaction it seems like the sref would want to fall more in the gfs camp. The NAM and SREFs both end at the critical point when the low either gets shunted due east or keeps heading NE. Should be really interesting this time tomorrow. Tonight will still be chaos, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not so sure I'd agree the SREFs have it coming north look at the 700mb RH....it's sliding off the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Not sure why we're doing this in the Banter thread, but yes, I think you're right. Look at all the spread over us, however! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not sure why we're doing this in the Banter thread, but yes, I think you're right. Look at all the spread over us, however! lol I didn't even notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i'd say you're right..w/o see individual members the mean suggests many of them are going to have more northern stream involvement like the gfs... Mitch might be right on this run but it seems it should try being further NW based on where the waves meet up etc. I wish the Euro was about to come out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looking at the 500mb...although the mean seems to phase, at least partially (and looks close to a full phase), there's still a lot of height spread BEHIND the mean trough axis for the northern stream s/w. To me that implies that a number of members have the s/w's not phase. Not as much spread on the southern s/w...I think that one is going to be pretty well modeled going forward since it's already on-shore. The northern s/w is still up in northern Canada/Alaska I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I secretly hope they do just because of negative posts like this Well you must secretly hope we do well too, because CTBlizz loves to talk sh*t about us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 To expand on Ian's and Chris' dialogue, sometimes I think noobs get scared to ask and learn for fear of getting beat up a bit. I probably could have learned things alot faster if I stepped up and asked "stupid questions" more often. And I'm not saying stupid in the literal sense. Like the post last night where someone asked how to read the gfs 850 temp spaghetti map. Once you understand what your looking at it makes a huge difference learning other things. I would like to have a running thread in the ma sub-forum where people can ask any weather model related question and get a real answer without fearing getting embarassed or made to look stupid for asking. I know the main forum has the met 101 thread but alot of us stay home so to speak because we're more comfortable here. Just a thought but I personally would like to be able to ask specific questions from time to time and I like helping and teaching others too. It's not like I have deep knowledge or anything but I know enough stuff to help new folks and there are some things I really want to understand better (like how to accurately read a sounding). If enough people are interested, we should start a thread for general model or weather questions and see if it brings value to our subforum. If it doesn't work it can quietly dissappear into the dead threadyard. I think your thread idea is a good one...and if Ian is alright with it, I wouldn't mind giving it a trial run tonight (i got some free time tonight (long weekend starts tonight) mainly a thread where newcomers and others can come and ask questions about the 0z guidance and available mets/others can address the questions? It's up to the leadership...if not tonight...it's something i wouldn't mind participating in or seeing occur in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If it snows then it better ****ing snow. **** the take what I can get camp, I'm in the go hard or go home camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't even know where you are actually lol but I was referring to I95 is there life outside of it? Nope, you and the others should stay put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If it snows then it better ****ing snow. **** the take what I can get camp, I'm in the go hard or go home camp. go hard camp doesnt happen in winters like this....not in this air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nope, you and the others should stay put. good, I've never skied in my life,,,,really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nope, you and the others should stay put. Did you ever get the fourth wall installed on your AK outhouse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think your thread idea is a good one...and if Ian is alright with it, I wouldn't mind giving it a trial run tonight (i got some free time tonight (long weekend starts tonight) mainly a thread where newcomers and others can come and ask questions about the 0z guidance and available mets/others can address the questions? It's up to the leadership...if not tonight...it's something i wouldn't mind participating in or seeing occur in the future. Yeah. I had what seemed like a really dumb question about why a model was putting the storm east and OTS. A response to the post cleared this up but still I am not sure if I understood completely. So a thread something along the line of a learner's thread would be nice. I don't want to get in the way of a regular discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 where's Yoda....NAM is at 48 and I need to get his opinion on what the 51 hour panel will look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 where's Yoda....NAM is at 48 and I need to get his opinion on what the 51 hour panel will look like He only extrapolates to Hour 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I like the fact that the track guidance is so spread out....It is keeping us preoccupied so we can stave off the discussion about how even a perfect track will have precip type issues and may be mostly rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is my favorite weather model: Just thought y'all should know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I like the fact that the track guidance is so spread out....It is keeping us preoccupied so we can stave off the discussion about how even a perfect track will have precip type issues and may be mostly rain.... So you're saying this will be a very typical Nina storm for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I like the fact that the track guidance is so spread out....It is keeping us preoccupied so we can stave off the discussion about how even a perfect track will have precip type issues and may be mostly rain.... haha...it's like the day 5 hurricane track....as long as we're in the cone we aren't concerned with actual details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I like the fact that the track guidance is so spread out....It is keeping us preoccupied so we can stave off the discussion about how even a perfect track will have precip type issues and may be mostly rain.... Or dream about a Euro/GFS blend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think we need to start a winter banter thread that is banter only ....no model discussion and also start a witty winter banter thread then one that contains no humor just serious banter and then probably one that contains a combo of banter and hearty winter soup recipes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How sweet would it be if there was an 18Z euro that initialized around 7pm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How sweet would it be if there was an 18Z euro that initialized around 7pm.... Forecaster continuity hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm feelin an 0z gfs run that comes right in between the 18z gfs and 12z euro. It's a realistic hunch too. 500 energy is more complicated than just about anything we've seen this year. People can say whatever they want about the gfs being awful or out to lunch. I think it's doing just fine. This puzzle won't be resolved until sometime on saturday. The swings will keep getting smaLler from here on out tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think your thread idea is a good one...and if Ian is alright with it, I wouldn't mind giving it a trial run tonight (i got some free time tonight (long weekend starts tonight) mainly a thread where newcomers and others can come and ask questions about the 0z guidance and available mets/others can address the questions? It's up to the leadership...if not tonight...it's something i wouldn't mind participating in or seeing occur in the future. Sounds good. Also, I did graduate with a degree in Meteorology from PSU in 2001, but since then became an environmental consultant then a Fed (not NOAA). So, I don't have a red tag on these boards, and I don't feel I should. Meteorology has evolved quite a bit from when I graduated in 2001, and frankly I don't remember a fraction of what I learned in that 4 years, since I haven't been using it professionally. Sometimes, I think too much attention is paid to the red tags, some of which I believe are questionable red tags, and those without red tags are somehow looked down upon by some. Red tags seem to get a bye when they post "banter" in the model threads, while the non-redtags get scrutinized to no end, and I don't think that's fair. I've learned a ton from not only the red tags, but also some die hard hobbyists, who know more about forecasting than I would ever hope to know. If you read through the posts, and you are somewhat bright, you can quickly figure out who has a clue and who doesn't. I'm also the first to admit that I'm a snow weenie, as many of those here are. Even the Red Tags fall into that weenie blinder mode from time to time, and it's a fine line for a met - since we all like active interesting weather. All-in-all, I think creating a thread for those who want to learn and ask questions without the fear of weenie bashing is a great idea! I also think the banter thread should be used by all weenies (you all know who you are) to go ahead and vent frustrations and provide comic relief - we can all try to keep it professional in the storm threads. Myself included, but the banter thread is there for folks to have the side bar conversations, and I think most are using it the way I think a "banter" thread should be used. May I also recommend a pinned thread for Wes to post his thoughts on storm threats. He's the most skilled forecaster here, IMHO, and I get frustrated searching through the threads for his take on new information. Any chance Wes could have a permanent pinned thread? I think we all could benefit from his vast knowledge and experience. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sounds good. Also, I did graduate with a degree in Meteorology from PSU in 2001, but since then became an environmental consultant then a Fed (not NOAA). So, I don't have a red tag on these boards, and I don't feel I should. Meteorology has evolved quite a bit from when I graduated in 2001, and frankly I don't remember a fraction of what I learned in that 4 years, since I haven't been using it professionally. Sometimes, I think too much attention is paid to the red tags, some of which I believe are questionable red tags, and those without red tags are somehow looked down upon by some. Red tags seem to get a bye when they post "banter" in the model threads, while the non-redtags get scrutinized to no end, and I don't think that's fair. I've learned a ton from not only the red tags, but also some die hard hobbyists, who know more about forecasting than I would ever hope to know. If you read through the posts, and you are somewhat bright, you can quickly figure out who has a clue and who doesn't. I'm also the first to admit that I'm a snow weenie, as many of those here are. Even the Red Tags fall into that weenie blinder mode from time to time, and it's a fine line for a met - since we all like active interesting weather. All-in-all, I think creating a thread for those who want to learn and ask questions without the fear of weenie bashing is a great idea! I also think the banter thread should be used by all weenies (you all know who you are) to go ahead and vent frustrations and provide comic relief - we can all try to keep it professional in the storm threads. Myself included, but the banter thread is there for folks to have the side bar conversations, and I think most are using it the way I think a "banter" thread should be used. May I also recommend a pinned thread for Wes to post his thoughts on storm threats. He's the most skilled forecaster here, IMHO, and I get frustrated searching through the threads for his take on new information. Any chance Wes could have a permanent pinned thread? I think we all could benefit from his vast knowledge and experience. Thanks Chris's idea is super. I think it's a great idea. Not only does it teach it also has potential to help during big events. One thing I do when I want to find certain people's thoughts - do a forum search on name, then click find content. Do it on "posts only" and you'll get them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I love it when the weenies in the discussion thread are like 3 frames behind the rest of the posters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 where's Yoda....NAM is at 48 and I need to get his opinion on what the 51 hour panel will look like he is probably in the NE, NYC or the SE. forum copying posts to paste here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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