PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 it's not an inland runner--the low is well to the east of the Apps. I thought an inland runner ran up the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Will be tough to swallow if CT Blizz and ski mrg sneak out a HECS before we all go to spring. I secretly hope they do just because of negative posts like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I secretly hope they do just because of negative posts like this Too bad you'll miss it while in the weight room of a bottom-rung university doing squat thrusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Will be tough to swallow if CT Blizz and ski mrg sneak out a HECS before we all go to spring. if they look at surface temps and thicknesses, there's a fair bit of rain in that qpf and if this season has taught anyone anything, it's don't discount the models when they show a warm BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I thought an inland runner ran up the coastal plain. agreed. not a cutter but inland for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just so I'm on the same page: Inland runner = track east of the apps and west of the coast Apps runner = self explanatory Cutter = track to the west of the apps and going over any gl SE Barrel Wave = a ridiculous ficticious weather term that only a complete moron would try to defend the existence of on a weather forum or a mushy ground swell with little chance at a decent tube ride because the ec has a sandy bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Too bad you'll miss it while in the weight room of a bottom-rung university doing squat thrusts. Aww, its cute when you get personal. Really shows your nastiness and immaturity. Just like when you threaten to cry if SNE sees more snow than you. Also, for someone who whined about me talking about football so much, its funny you bring it up in a winter banter thread. Have you been on campus since the 1990's? Brand new buildings, huge revitalization, brand new football stadium, and a brand new indoor arena under construction. I'm really hurting here... P.S. We just won the CAA championship, CAA happens to be the undisputed best conference in 1AA. Pretty big accomplishment, first time ever, seems like a great time to be here. Stomped the likes of Delaware, Villanova, Richmond, Old Dominion this year. An AD dedicated to turning Towson 1A in football and a president that wants to make the university known well all around the country. Already made huge strides in the past few years. http://www.towsontigers.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=21300&id=764136&db_oem_id=21300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 just some general thoughts: I agree with most of what has been said and without limiting the discussion there really isn't a fix to some of the problems which are bothering a number of us. I can only use my own experience as an example, but when I first started posting here I literally thought I was better than anyone who didn't have a "red tag", I remember some of my greatest hits, such as "being a d-bag" to Ian about the DC split and the definition of heat wave, or just a couple of weeks being mean to zwyts over surface temperatures and precipitation type. It may have taken a bit but I realized that even with a "vast" knowledge of meteorology/atmospheric science (which doesn't translate into forecasting knowledge always), I had never really spent much time in the past 8 years forecasting, let along forecasting in this region. We have so much knowledge and talent here, from the mets on the board to people like Ian and zwyts, whose local knowledge and drive to learn about something that they didn't go to school to learn about is just staggering. I had a need to be "regarded" by the community for my knowledge, but I realized I was the problem because if I can't meaningfully explain to someone new to the field or a hobbyist why they may be going about it wrong, then I'm not doing any good. And while demeaning them made me feel knowledgeable (in my own head), it was mean spirited and selfish. To all those bothered by some of the same things that bother me (the JMA, DGEX etc..), we have the most powerful filter, something a message board can't supply, our knowledge, I look at Ji posting the JMA and I enjoy it, because its comedy and I know to filter it out, extrapolating the NAM, it's crazy but I don't think anyone does it as a legitimate exercise, and even so I know its kinda crazy. Finally, a suggestion to the board, seeing that we have such a depth of knowledge here, and we have people who are so eager to learn, why are we not doing something about it? I suggest something like a nightly map discussion thread (even just during high-impact events) performed by a met or an amateur who is well versed in forecasting, where that person provides a short overview of the short-term and long-term forecast and provides a means to teach these eager hobbyists (i'm sure we could find a good rotation so that the responsibility gets spread around, I'm sure most would enjoying put such an analysis together). In general, lets turn that frustration into something meaningful and I bet everyone comes out of it a bit better. What's a bit funny about this board, very few know each other on a personal level and that's too bad because most of us would be great friends given that we love weather enough to follow a terrible winter like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ian you want to start a thread for the feb 27 18z Gfs event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Some people are seeing two different solutions, surpressed and rain. However I am seeing two identical solutions, no snow and no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Some people are seeing two different solutions, surpressed and rain. However I am seeing two identical solutions, no snow and no snow. You're consistent if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 just some general thoughts: I agree with most of what has been said and without limiting the discussion there really isn't a fix to some of the problems which are bothering a number of us. I can only use my own experience as an example, but when I first started posting here I literally thought I was better than anyone who didn't have a "red tag", I remember some of my greatest hits, such as "being a d-bag" to Ian about the DC split and the definition of heat wave, or just a couple of weeks being mean to zwyts over surface temperatures and precipitation type. It may have taken a bit but I realized that even with a "vast" knowledge of meteorology/atmospheric science (which doesn't translate into forecasting knowledge always), I had never really spent much time in the past 8 years forecasting, let along forecasting in this region. We have so much knowledge and talent here, from the mets on the board to people like Ian and zwyts, whose local knowledge and drive to learn about something that they didn't go to school to learn about is just staggering. I had a need to be "regarded" by the community for my knowledge, but I realized I was the problem because if I can't meaningfully explain to someone new to the field or a hobbyist why they may be going about it wrong, then I'm not doing any good. And while demeaning them made me feel knowledgeable (in my own head), it was mean spirited and selfish. To all those bothered by some of the same things that bother me (the JMA, DGEX etc..), we have the most powerful filter, something a message board can't supply, our knowledge, I look at Ji posting the JMA and I enjoy it, because its comedy and I know to filter it out, extrapolating the NAM, it's crazy but I don't think anyone does it as a legitimate exercise, and even so I know its kinda crazy. Finally, a suggestion to the board, seeing that we have such a depth of knowledge here, and we have people who are so eager to learn, why are we not doing something about it? I suggest something like a nightly map discussion thread (even just during high-impact events) performed by a met or an amateur who is well versed in forecasting, where that person provides a short overview of the short-term and long-term forecast and provides a means to teach these eager hobbyists (i'm sure we could find a good rotation so that the responsibility gets spread around, I'm sure most would enjoying put such an analysis together). In general, lets turn that frustration into something meaningful and I bet everyone comes out of it a bit better. What's a bit funny about this board, very few know each other on a personal level and that's too bad because most of us would be great friends given that we love weather enough to follow a terrible winter like this. This is a good post. I realize we all are at different levels and years ago things I find annoying today I might have even been heavily involved in. It's all perhaps part of learning. Problem for someone like me is "doing my job" here I can't really filter people out at least using the filter tool. I'm sure I come off as a jerk to some people by cutting straight to the point that some things are total exercises in futility, but I say most things I say because I've learned from experience. I don't get how we can't talk about surface temps at 100 hours out but we can talk about the NAM at the end of its run and beyond when time and time again we've seen that there is little point to it. They're easily as ludicrous as eachother if not moreso on the NAM stuff. Part of my issue is how much I have learned from these boards. Some of the conversation goes so far off into a realm of wishcasting and/or bad science it's hard to even read. I don't want to have to go through that to catch a nugget in one of every 40 posts. I know some of the reaching is simply because we've been so screwed and everyone wants to get at least one good snow. It might still be a good idea not to lump everything into one large thread. I know I've mentioned that in the past and it's partly my fault for not trying to implement it since. But I still think there is an argument ot have like a "model talk" thread and then a more general "forecasting/discussion" thread. There are plenty of us who don't need to read the thoughts of everyone every model run on every panel in the model. Not to mention the secondary and third string models. And yes, I think he vast majority of us would get along splendidly in person -- as seen at conferences etc. Forecasting and the like is argumentative by nature as very few of us have the exact same thougts on a situation and we're usually wedded to them fairly strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Saturday Night Overcast with a chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain showers. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of snow 70% with accumulations up to 9 in. possible. Anyone know if this is a new product, this is the wunderground forecast for york, pa area. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I was thinking about what chris87 said. It's funny when I look at the model runs I start wondering what Ji, Ian, mitchnick, WxUSAF, Wes and the rest of the cast are thinking. I can remember the days when DT used to post and then leave vowing never to post again after Ji made him angry only to return under a different name...stupid but entertaining... and there was a guy that used to say "how much for Philly".... Even Cosgrove used to post and get into it with DT It is amazing how all these people I have never met are so in my brain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Saturday Night Overcast with a chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain showers. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of snow 70% with accumulations up to 9 in. possible. Anyone know if this is a new product, this is the wunderground forecast for york, pa area. LOL. I like that it gives me a pinpoint temperature for the sunday after this coming sunday Clear. High of 54F. Winds less than 5 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I was thinking about what chris87 said. It's funny when I look at the model runs I start wondering what Ji, Ian, mitchnick, WxUSAF, Wes and the rest of the cast are thinking. I can remember the days when DT used to post and then leave vowing never to post again after Ji made him angry only to return under a different name...stupid but entertaining... and there was a guy that used to say "how much for Philly".... Even Cosgrove used to post and get into it with DT It is amazing how all these people I have never met are so in my brain They still do on his FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ian you want to start a thread for the feb 27 18z Gfs event? HM says it has a chance so why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 To expand on Ian's and Chris' dialogue, sometimes I think noobs get scared to ask and learn for fear of getting beat up a bit. I probably could have learned things alot faster if I stepped up and asked "stupid questions" more often. And I'm not saying stupid in the literal sense. Like the post last night where someone asked how to read the gfs 850 temp spaghetti map. Once you understand what your looking at it makes a huge difference learning other things. I would like to have a running thread in the ma sub-forum where people can ask any weather model related question and get a real answer without fearing getting embarassed or made to look stupid for asking. I know the main forum has the met 101 thread but alot of us stay home so to speak because we're more comfortable here. Just a thought but I personally would like to be able to ask specific questions from time to time and I like helping and teaching others too. It's not like I have deep knowledge or anything but I know enough stuff to help new folks and there are some things I really want to understand better (like how to accurately read a sounding). If enough people are interested, we should start a thread for general model or weather questions and see if it brings value to our subforum. If it doesn't work it can quietly dissappear into the dead threadyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 if they look at surface temps and thicknesses, there's a fair bit of rain in that qpf and if this season has taught anyone anything, it's don't discount the models when they show a warm BL I don't know about Blizz's locale but if you're talking about mine the 18z GFS is a solid crushing, no rain. But, it's the 18z GFS, no reason to get apoplectic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If we get rain, I want everyone to get rain. I don't want the NYC, Phl, and S NE subforums cashing in with 2 ft snow. Selfish, I know. Actually C PA deserves a nice storm, they've gotten the shaft over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Why aren't we analyzing the 87 HR SREF's like the other subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't know about Blizz's locale but if you're talking about mine the 18z GFS is a solid crushing, no rain. But, it's the 18z GFS, no reason to get apoplectic. I don't even know where you are actually lol but I was referring to I95 is there life outside of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't even know where you are actually lol but I was referring to I95 is there life outside of it? About 10 people i think on the whole east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Why aren't we analyzing the 87 HR SREF's like the other subforums. looks moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks moist It sure does, i am of the mind if we are not going to get snow let's at least get a really powerful wind whipped rainstorm with trees falling and power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks moist looking at the 5H maps in motion, I just don't know how the storm could come that far north with that kicker on the west coast coming east right on the heels of our system maybe a met could explain it short of the kicker stopping http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+21UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+MEANSPRD&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Why aren't we analyzing the 87 HR SREF's like the other subforums. Our forum has been beat down. People are discouraged and afraid. It is hard to believe how dead it is given we have a shot (long shot) at our best storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It sure does, i am of the mind if we are not going to get snow let's at least get a really powerful wind whipped rainstorm with trees falling and power outages. 850 temps are OK at -2 to -3C surface....meh, same old story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looking at the 5H maps in motion, I just don't know how the storm could come that far north with that kicker on the west coast coming east right on the heels of our system maybe a met could explain it short of the kicker stopping http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M i'd almost sooner look at sref than nam at this range but mainly because i sorta want a mean right now till the models lock in a bit more. would have to see indiv members tho to at least know how the camps line up. given early stream interaction it seems like the sref would want to fall more in the gfs camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Our forum has been beat down. People are discouraged and afraid. It is hard to believe how dead it is given we have a shot (long shot) at our best storm of the year. evening is quiet.. people eat dinner and stuff. plus there are no models to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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