WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's funny because you were the one who started the discussion... With this complicated of a setup, spending one second on the NAM at 84hr+ is a giant waste of time. No sh*t, Sherlock. Who did you think I was defending. I didn't start a discussion of the NAM with any intent on trying to apply it to this storm. I just saw a map that looked markedly different from the other models and wondered what a mets thinking would have been if they had been presented with the same map. I was trying to learn something. Congratulations on being able to multi-quote, btw. Maybe next time you should actually try reading some of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 From HPC... THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN WHICH ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE NARROWER WINDOW FOR DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE NAM VERSUS THE OTHER REMAINING SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 No sh*t, Sherlock. Who did you think I was defending. I didn't start a discussion of the NAM with any intent on trying to apply it to this storm. I just saw a map that looked markedly different from the other models and wondered what a mets thinking would have been if they had been presented with the same map. I was trying to learn something. Congratulations on being able to multi-quote, btw. Maybe next time you should actually try reading some of them. The thing is, you shouldn't apply it to ANY storm or any other situation because it doesn't mean jack. You'll learn absolutely nothing from extrapolating the NAM (EDIT: or any other model for that matter). The quotes provide an attempt to try the impossible in an effort to answer your question. It's a worthless exercise regardless of what their answers were. Feel free to waste all your time wondering what could be instead of figuring out what is most likely. I'll do all of you a favor and just stop posting in this sub-forum. It's obvious that the weenies are steering the discussion towards fantasy and pointless conversation that does not get us any closer to anticipating what the storm will do. As much of an a-hole as I've been, I've had valid points that some of you have chosen to ignore in favor of going about your weenie business. Enjoy your peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW -- DT "GOOD SIZE SNOWSTORM LOOKING MORE and MORE LIKELY NORTHERN VA ... NW VA Northern half of SHENANDOAH VALLEY MD DE S NJ" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW -- DT "GOOD SIZE SNOWSTORM LOOKING MORE and MORE LIKELY NORTHERN VA ... NW VA Northern half of SHENANDOAH VALLEY MD DE S NJ" Oh boy...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think that is just his way of gently letting down all his followers in Richmond, who he has been hyping a potential storm to for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think that is just his way of gently letting down all his followers in Richmond, who he has been hyping a potential storm to for 2 weeks. He's already started dropping hints that this storm will be mostly rain for RIC metro ect. I'm not sure why at this stage considering the extreme inconsistencies with the models. The weenies are cliff-jumping on his page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 From HPC... THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN WHICH ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE NARROWER WINDOW FOR DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE NAM VERSUS THE OTHER REMAINING SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Fill in the blank: Most important 12z EURO run of_______________________. our lifetime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 He's already started dropping hints that this storm will be mostly rain for RIC metro ect. I'm not sure why at this stage considering the extreme inconsistencies with the models. The weenies are cliff-jumping on his page. Yeah, he's definitely begun the process of shedding weenies... Alright, in English, are we getting snow in Central Va over the weekend or not? where in central va ? RIC? PROBABLY not I'm not sure how you can say "probably not" for anyone at this point but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Aleet...cancel GFS because it sucks...aleet. He cancel the UKIE too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Fill in the blank: Most important 12z EURO run of_______________________. our lifetime? Of the universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 He cancel the UKIE too? The UKmet is not a carbon copy of the GFS and the low placement is further SE, it's somewhat of a compromise between the euro and the GFS but more towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the UKIE was also suppressed beyond recognition on its last run... soooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro is going to show the ultimate partial phase with -4 850's through the entire event in the ma and no snow for anyone north of central nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro is going to show the ultimate partial phase with -4 850's through the entire event in the ma and no snow for anyone north of central nj. I knew that from looking at the extrapolated NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I knew that from looking at the extrapolated NAM I nailed it from the 12z RUC. HRRR extrapolation is my next project. I'll keep you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I nailed it from the 12z RUC. HRRR extrapolation is my next project. I'll keep you posted. You should see what the 320 hr SREF has. Whooo boy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The thing is, you shouldn't apply it to ANY storm or any other situation because it doesn't mean jack. You'll learn absolutely nothing from extrapolating the NAM (EDIT: or any other model for that matter). The quotes provide an attempt to try the impossible in an effort to answer your question. It's a worthless exercise regardless of what their answers were. Feel free to waste all your time wondering what could be instead of figuring out what is most likely. I'll do all of you a favor and just stop posting in this sub-forum. It's obvious that the weenies are steering the discussion towards fantasy and pointless conversation that does not get us any closer to anticipating what the storm will do. As much of an a-hole as I've been, I've had valid points that some of you have chosen to ignore in favor of going about your weenie business. Enjoy your peace. Ellinwood, you're missing the point. I don't care that much what happens this weekend. Sure I'll watch with interest like everyone else, but I can't change it. I saw a map that looked different from the other maps that I was seeing. It made me curious to know what someone who really knew something might think if they saw the same map. Forget that it was the NAM at 84 hours. Pretend it was a 500mb initialization map. I thought when I saw it, that, if I were to venture a guess, I'd have guessed a storm in the lower MS valley moving up to the ky/tn/mo border area and then weakening and maybe transfering to the coast in a similar fashion to the storm a couple of weeks ago. I still don't know if that would have been a reasonable guess as nobody ever answered the question. Instead, everyone focused on slapping down the question simply because the map I was curious about came from the 84hour nam. You very well know that I respect your opinion and that of every met here. You contribute more than I do. If anybody should stop posting its me. I just enjoy being here. I'm a naturally curious person by nature, and that is the total extent of why I was asking about the 500map that the nam showed last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm diggin the midlo/ian pbp. Honestly, I'm relieved that it isn't showing a wrapped up rainer and the gl low has gone away. This is very very important for us down here. I kinda doubted the gfs solution because it was just phasing so perfectly and it seemed unlikely. Still makes a weenie nervous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You should see what the 320 hr SREF has. Whooo boy!!! The long range short range ensemble forecast LRSREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm gonna stay out of the model thread after what I think was a good post. Ji is gonna go crazy on the no precip and then all the talk about the surface is going to start. I am very encouraged about the run and my points about the hp placement n of the lakes building down are valid. Probably a total weenie statement here but we all know the precip is going to head n&w. With the surface being so marginal, we want the coast to take a similar path off the coast but just slightly more north. If sne gets a good snow out of this then we're going to be pretty much all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 sitting on the n side of precip is great unless it doesn't come north. they don't always come north. the pattern this year still argues for a fringe or a miss to the south imo.. despite any positives of current. im still about 70/30 no snow of note imby.. maybe 65/35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 not one model gives us snow right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 not one model gives us snow right now hr 120 on the nam did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 sitting on the n side of precip is great unless it doesn't come north. they don't always come north. the pattern this year still argues for a fringe or a miss to the south imo.. despite any positives of current. im still about 70/30 no snow of note imby.. maybe 65/35. agreed. I don't want to imply that I think our odds of getting snow are high. Absolutely not the case. However, if we are going to get ANY snow we need somthing similar to the euro to get us there and not the gfs. All I really want is 2-4" anyway. Seems like reasonable weenie hope unless this entire thing turns into a mess in the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If we keep talking about surface temps 4.5 days out based on the euro's known warmista depiction of them I may go out in the shed and just end it What do you mean here? And why was this post in the model thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What do you mean here? And why was this post in the model thread? Are you the PR police on this board? Between this comment and what you said to ravensrule the other day I'm beginning to wonder. You know full well what I meant there. And it was meant to go in banter. Im dazed and confused and the threads all look alike these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 DT thinks the Euro precip shield is "too weak." How dare he question the king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What do you mean here? And why was this post in the model thread? It isn't your job to police the model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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