Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If people want to learn about how to read and analyze a 500mb chart, they should go online and read about it OR get the Northeast Snowstorm books. Extrapolating the NAM is NOT a worthwhile way to learn about how H5 works or the atmosphere as a whole. If you are serious about learning, don't weenie up a thread in the process, actually learn and make an effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks. But no opinion of the nam at that time range is worth much. Today is another golf day. I do think I'm getting jaded as I'm having a harder time getting interested in the threads but that might just be because this winter has been so bad. Thank you. I have been mostly lurking for years now, and love this board. I have more respect for Wes than for any other forecaster on here. His point about the strength of the vortex in Eastern Canada is well-taken. That's one of the reasons why I posed my post in the form of a question (and why I explicitly explained as a caveat that I KNOW that we can't take the 84h NAM seriously) - to get model/feature analysis from people like Wes who are professionals. It's funny because you were the one who started the discussion... With this complicated of a setup, spending one second on the NAM at 84hr+ is a giant waste of time. Towson and others - the best lesson learned here is not to expect a useful lesson from the 84 hour NAM.....and leave it at that. When you have this many red-taggers telling you that, likely time to listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Biggest 12z GFS run since the 18z GFS yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Towson and others - the best lesson learned here is not to expect a useful lesson from the 84 hour NAM.....and leave it at that. When you have this many red-taggers telling you that, likely time to listen. I hope someone told RaleighWx that he wasted his time posting this... SOme things to note from the NAM. 1. The NAM is closest to the Canadian through 72-84 hours when compared with the GFS/ECMWF. 2. It is slower and more amplified with the southern stream system. At 84 hours it has a 1003mb low over SW Louisiana. The 6z GFS at 90 hours had it over south-central GEorgia, the 00z ECMWF at 96 hours had it near Mobile Bay, the 00z GGEM at 96 hours had it slightly further east than the NAM just south of the LA central coast. From the 6z GFS ENsemble members, it looked most like members p002, p005, p008, and p 010. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/06zf090.html 3. Also the NAM is much quicker with the northern stream cold front when compared with the GFS and ECMWF at the same time. The front is passing through central Virginia at 00z Sunday and pushing southeast. The area of low pressure will likely ride this front so to speak. If you extract out the 6z GFS Ensemble members and look at the Canadian, one would expect the 12z NAM would likely end up threatening at least, KY/TN/VA/northern NC with snow. It will be interesting to see if the 12z models trend slower/stronger with the southern stream system, and quicker with the cold front moving into the NOrtheast this saturday. Because god forbid we talk about models. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I hope someone told RaleighWx that he wasted his time posting this... Because god forbid we talk about models. Sigh. You are being swarmed by the hive. Just give it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You are being swarmed by the hive. Just give it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Anyone got news on the extrapolated NAM ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think the most amusing part about the 84hr nam disco is that it happens every single year. same argument / same outcome. There are alot of these types of discos that happen every year and get hashed out the exact same way. We could probably be more efficient and just dig up and link the threads from eastern 6 years or longer ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Anyone got news on the extrapolated NAM ensembles? Millz has it I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Maybe we can have a daily designated weenie-smasher to yell at the weenies who post anything other than analysis of the Euro (or maybe the GFS)? That would keep the banter thread much less cluttered. K thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Millz has it I believe... Nope, the hive swarmed me... I have been stung Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 he didn't extrapolate it. he explained how it lined up with past runs and other models. big distinction. the issue isn't talking about the models. it is posting endless posts of dumb stuff. one thing should be clear from reading even just THIS banter thread: the 84 NAM is essentially meaningless. if you've been reading a lot of the board then you'd know that its accuracy is in the shorter range, not out there. He didn't extrapolate it? What's this then? "The area of low pressure will likely ride this front so to speak." "If you extract out the 6z GFS Ensemble members and look at the Canadian, one would expect the 12z NAM would likely end up threatening at least, KY/TN/VA/northern NC with snow." Quick, someone head over to the SE thread and yell at him! ;-) Trixie, I've been reading the board for years. Enough to know the weenie basics, at least. I KNOW that the 84h NAM isn't reliable. I can't repeat that enough times, apparently. But we've spent how many posts and hours discussing the 150h GFS in the last couple of days - how is that accuracy working out for us? Discussing models is a big part of this board, and someone should be able to make one post asking about the features on the 84h NAM without getting yelled at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 When the mob crew is around even if you are 1000% right they could care less, they get their jollies by thinking they are so powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 He didn't extrapolate it? What's this then? "The area of low pressure will likely ride this front so to speak." "If you extract out the 6z GFS Ensemble members and look at the Canadian, one would expect the 12z NAM would likely end up threatening at least, KY/TN/VA/northern NC with snow." Quick, someone head over to the SE thread and yell at him! ;-) Trixie, I've been reading the board for years. Enough to know the weenie basics, at least. I KNOW that the 84h NAM isn't reliable. I can't repeat that enough times, apparently. But we've spent how many posts and hours discussing the 150h GFS in the last couple of days - how is that accuracy working out for us? Discussing models is a big part of this board, and someone should be able to make one post asking about the features on the 84h NAM without getting yelled at. Ignore Trixie she is like a bad case of hemroids that no matter what you can not get rid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Trixie, I've been reading the board for years. Enough to know the weenie basics, at least. I KNOW that the 84h NAM isn't reliable. I can't repeat that enough times, apparently. But we've spent how many posts and hours discussing the 150h GFS in the last couple of days - how is that accuracy working out for us? Discussing models is a big part of this board, and someone should be able to make one post asking about the features on the 84h NAM without getting yelled at. I know you were writing to Trixie but if you look up at my last post you will see a good response to this. The issue is that that you asked a question - it's the fact that if you wanted to learn about a 500mb map or another kind of map questions should be asked. But what you did is you prefaced your post by saying that the frame on the model looked "good" and then proceeded to ask. If you are unsure, just ask, as long as you don't inject weenie banter into your posts, people will generally be more willing to answer your questions. If you haven't already tried them - I would suggest the COMET modules. They are an excellent learning tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 it was in the model discussion thread. it contributed nothing and essentially asked what we could expect if? the 84 hour NAM panel were to be? extrapolated. if that kind of stuff has to be posted at all, it should be posted in the banter thread. Just give it a rest already, when you become a mod you can scold people and move their posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Everyone step away from the keyboard for just a second and take a chill pill.... we all want the same thing.... no need to bash each other.... we're mature adults here. I've never seen so much badgering in a winter weather forum before. Being used to the SE thread, we never had this type of mob mentality. I don't understand where it stems from. Be nice folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 One thing that I think a lot of the newbies and weenies are missing is this - There is not ONE simple way that a scenario on a model will proceed if the model were to run farther. There are so many different ways that something could evolve even in a similar situation. Some of the folks on here are asking the red taggers to tell them how it would play out when the red taggers themselves may not know. Given a nearly identical frame on a model, the next frame will play out differently. There isn't a good way to say "oh the 84hr NAM showed this so that means if we had 90 it would show this" - in reality, there's many ways those 6 hours could play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Everyone step away from the keyboard for just a second and take a chill pill.... we all want the same thing.... no need to bash each other.... we're mature adults here. I've never seen so much badgering in a winter weather forum before. Being used to the SE thread, we never had this type of mob mentality. I don't understand where it stems from. Be nice folks. I think it stems from having people demand far too much out of meteorology as a whole. There are people who want straight answers on how something WOULD progress if it were run for another 6 hours when that simply is not possible (or smart). It also stems from people who are originally NICELY told to read more and post less not taking the advice and continuing the flood the threads with weenie banter (not directed at any one person). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I've gotten away from extrapolating the NAM. I've found exptrapolating the RUC much more challenging and rewarding. 12z looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks. But no opinion of the nam at that time range is worth much. Today is another golf day. I do think I'm getting jaded as I'm having a harder time getting interested in the threads but that might just be because this winter has been so bad. I find a day on the water out of Homosassa or Crystal River in FLA does wonders for my outlook....by April/May, the trout and a maybe some reds should be hot and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Got my rain wish on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Got my rain wish on this run 1-2" of rain... fooking rain.... I hope Leesburg gets the heavy rain so its drought is ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GFS clown maps give a good chunk of SNE and the NYC 'burbs 12-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 don't worry DT already has canceled the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I posted this in the main thread but let's be honest here, the gfs shows a big ugly and mean rainer for us but look at h5 @ hr 81: Is it really possible to nail these features @ 72+ hours away? Not a chance. Not saying it's not going to be a soaking rainstorm but having confidence in the solution is not a good idea. I'm sticking with the idea of a more ots idea and couple inches of snow on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I posted this in the main thread but let's be honest here, the gfs shows a big ugly and mean rainer for us but look at h5 @ hr 81: Is it really possible to nail these features @ 72+ hours away? Not a chance. Not saying it's not going to be a soaking rainstorm but having confidence in the solution is not a good idea. I'm sticking with the idea of a more ots idea and couple inches of snow on the fringe. Funny you grabbed 81hr. I was looking at that one too and comparing to the 0z run. big differences still run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm sticking with the idea of a more ots idea and couple inches of snow on the fringe. Certainly the purely southern stream storm that goes OTS is the most likely solution right now. Betting against a phase is a bet that you'll win more often than not. That said, I think the fact that many individual runs of each model have hit on a phase or partial phase at one point in the last several days shows that there is still a good chance for at least a partial phase. I'd very much like a solution that is a partial phase that brings the storm up the coast to at least near VA before going OTS. We'd still get fringed a bit, but would certainly be in play for a 2-4" or 3-5" event in that situation. I think the odds are much better right now that Sunday is partly cloudy rather than 35F with 1-2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Certainly the purely southern stream storm that goes OTS is the most likely solution right now. Betting against a phase is a bet that you'll win more often than not. That said, I think the fact that many individual runs of each model have hit on a phase or partial phase at one point in the last several days shows that there is still a good chance for at least a partial phase. I'd very much like a solution that is a partial phase that brings the storm up the coast to at least near VA before going OTS. We'd still get fringed a bit, but would certainly be in play for a 2-4" or 3-5" event in that situation. I think the odds are much better right now that Sunday is partly cloudy rather than 35F with 1-2" of rain. Look at us. Rooting against a phase? Is this what it's come to? lol If the gl low wasn't screwing everything up I would be rooting for a phase because we would have at the very least a 1025-1030hp sitting right where we need it. But noooooo, a stupid weak little area of lp cuts off our chances of a good cold air supply and we end up never standing a chance with the exception of "back end snow" and we know how that works around here. Back end snow can kiss my back end. Partial phase and no stupid gl low ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Aleet...cancel GFS because it sucks...aleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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