mappy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 True...but we also really havnt had a system yet this winter, capable of doing what this one may do.... And what is this system capable of doing exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ill give it till 00z tonight before panic sets in you mean for the rest of us, since you're already there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 considering that this one needs the same kinds of "things that need to happen" as every other system this winter, it's exactly like the rest of them. anyone who is banking right now on a huge storm this weekend, or even meeting advisory level snow criteria, is delusional. Thanks for the morning uplift, trix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 And what is this system capable of doing exactly? Hopefully marking the end of winter by raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hopefully marking the end of winter by raining. Did winter ever really begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Blizzard coming repeal seatbelt laws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I missed hr90 on the NAM, who has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 I missed hr90 on the NAM, who has it? EPIC BLIZZARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The weatherman on DC's Channel 4 this morning said something to the effect that winter weather lovers are now curled up in the fetal position and crying. Warministas RULE! oops, shouldn't have said that, one of the GFS 300-hour fantasies might actually come true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Blizzard coming repeal seatbelt laws It's funny. I look at the 84 hr NAm which we probably shouldn't be talking about anyway and see a pattern that looks like it would keep the low suppressed to the south. I go in and read the model thread and see someone say how good it looks. The giant vortex over eastern canada says no not that the NAM's depiction of it will be right. I think I'm getting jaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 And what is this system capable of doing exactly? Given my baseline for this ****ty winter is that snow/ice fest of 1.5" a few weeks back, I am kinda hoping it can give me enough actual snow to cover the grass for the first time this year. It may be capable of that. Or, you know, more likely flakes in the air that don't accumulate. Or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 EPIC BLIZZARD Awesome! The force must be on the NAMs side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There was an actual conversation about extrapolating the NAM in the real discussion thread? Wow. No there was not. There was one person asking a question about a hypothetical look to a 500 map and trying to learn something about forecasting off of a 500 map. Not one time did anyone imply that there was any belief in it being correct. But, hey, what the heck. It's almost impossible to believe some members of the Mid Atlantic sub thread acting like ***holes. Whowouldathunkit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Sucks that we will have to depend on the TDWRs for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's funny. I look at the 84 hr NAm which we probably shouldn't be talking about anyway and see a pattern that looks like it would keep the low suppressed to the south. I go in and read the model thread and see someone say how good it looks. The giant vortex over eastern canada says no not that the NAM's depiction of it will be right. I think I'm getting jaded. i still like you. your opinion of the lolNAM at 84 hr is better than any other opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ill give it till 00z tonight before panic sets in And you'll do the same thing tomorrow, and Friday. It was just yesterday that you were blasting about how we should know on Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 No there was not. There was one person asking a question about a hypothetical look to a 500 map and trying to learn something about forecasting off of a 500 map. Not one time did anyone imply that there was any belief in it being correct. But, hey, what the heck. It's almost impossible to believe some members of the Mid Atlantic sub thread acting like ***holes. Whowouldathunkit? You're getting too riled up lol. Calm yourself! - You are seemingly matching the man in your avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 And you'll do the same thing tomorrow, and Friday. It was just yesterday that you were blasting about how we should know on Tuesday night. You are not the person who should be lecturing Ji about changing his mind on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i still like you. your opinion of the lolNAM at 84 hr is better than any other opinion. Thanks. But no opinion of the nam at that time range is worth much. Today is another golf day. I do think I'm getting jaded as I'm having a harder time getting interested in the threads but that might just be because this winter has been so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's funny. I look at the 84 hr NAm which we probably shouldn't be talking about anyway and see a pattern that looks like it would keep the low suppressed to the south. I go in and read the model thread and see someone say how good it looks. The giant vortex over eastern canada says no not that the NAM's depiction of it will be right. I think I'm getting jaded. I'll send snow pics from Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 No there was not. There was one person asking a question about a hypothetical look to a 500 map and trying to learn something about forecasting off of a 500 map. Not one time did anyone imply that there was any belief in it being correct. But, hey, what the heck. It's almost impossible to believe some members of the Mid Atlantic sub thread acting like ***holes. Whowouldathunkit? Thank you. I have been mostly lurking for years now, and love this board. I have more respect for Wes than for any other forecaster on here. His point about the strength of the vortex in Eastern Canada is well-taken. That's one of the reasons why I posed my post in the form of a question (and why I explicitly explained as a caveat that I KNOW that we can't take the 84h NAM seriously) - to get model/feature analysis from people like Wes who are professionals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks. But no opinion of the nam at that time range is worth much. Today is another golf day. I do think I'm getting jaded as I'm having a harder time getting interested in the threads but that might just be because this winter has been so bad. it will be spring (or really spring) soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 No there was not. There was one person asking a question about a hypothetical look to a 500 map and trying to learn something about forecasting off of a 500 map. Not one time did anyone imply that there was any belief in it being correct. But, hey, what the heck. It's almost impossible to believe some members of the Mid Atlantic sub thread acting like ***holes. Whowouldathunkit? It's funny because you were the one who started the discussion... Speaking of the nam, how would that play out? Isn't that look getting close to the look of two weeks ago? It almost looks like it would send a storm way west at least initially. Somebody give their interpretation. I'd like to learn something here. Extropolating the nam is really pointless. But it would suggest a further north track.. but the kicker will eventually send it ene..... I don't expect a low to go to far north givent he 50/50 low. I expect it would still go ene because of the set up in the Atlantic. Things of note... unless it takes longer to eject out allowing the 50/50 low to escape and relax the flow out east. That would mess up a lot of things really. But that really stretching things. x.x; The huge vortex over eastern canada probably won't be moving fast enough to allow the southern stream to cut to the lakes based on the NAM. It is a really strong vortex. I actually disagree some about the nam. The upper low over eastern canada is huge and would really have to get out of the way to allow the low to track northeast very quickly. Big vortex usually are slower to move but as you say, at 84 hrs trying to extrapolate a model is pretty hard unless your only going to try to predict the next 12 hrs or so and then you have to hope the NAM has a decent forecast. It's just a hypothetical. Forget that it's the nam. I just wanted to see if I was reading what it showed correctly and if I could predict what it might do under those conditions. I wasn't suggesting it was correct. Yea both features are strong on the Nam. The southern system and the low up north. You can tell just based on how cold the NAM is compared to the GFS at the same time period out east. But... why we discussing the 84 hour nam again? With this complicated of a setup, spending one second on the NAM at 84hr+ is a giant waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks. But no opinion of the nam at that time range is worth much. Today is another golf day. I do think I'm getting jaded as I'm having a harder time getting interested in the threads but that might just be because this winter has been so bad. This winter has been very tough on us all. Everytime it looked as if change was right around the corner it went poof! I feel your pain too. Just know that your words carry plenty of weight with many here(even if it is not what we want to hear or read). I rather you be here to temper things. You've been right about 100% of the time so far this winter IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's funny. I look at the 84 hr NAm which we probably shouldn't be talking about anyway and see a pattern that looks like it would keep the low suppressed to the south. I go in and read the model thread and see someone say how good it looks. The giant vortex over eastern canada says no not that the NAM's depiction of it will be right. I think I'm getting jaded. I'm keeping no expectations and hoping for luck. At this pt in the season wasting another week endlessly tracking seems to have little reward. Plus ppl are holding on to every last hope to salvage winter. The sun feels nice today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'll put it this way... the only thing that you learn from extrapolating the NAM is that you don't extrapolate the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If people want to learn about how to read and analyze a 500mb chart, they should go online and read about it OR get the Northeast Snowstorm books. Extrapolating the NAM is NOT a worthwhile way to learn about how H5 works or the atmosphere as a whole. If you are serious about learning, don't weenie up a thread in the process, actually learn and make an effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks. But no opinion of the nam at that time range is worth much. Today is another golf day. I do think I'm getting jaded as I'm having a harder time getting interested in the threads but that might just be because this winter has been so bad. Thank you. I have been mostly lurking for years now, and love this board. I have more respect for Wes than for any other forecaster on here. His point about the strength of the vortex in Eastern Canada is well-taken. That's one of the reasons why I posed my post in the form of a question (and why I explicitly explained as a caveat that I KNOW that we can't take the 84h NAM seriously) - to get model/feature analysis from people like Wes who are professionals. It's funny because you were the one who started the discussion... With this complicated of a setup, spending one second on the NAM at 84hr+ is a giant waste of time. Towson and others - the best lesson learned here is not to expect a useful lesson from the 84 hour NAM.....and leave it at that. When you have this many red-taggers telling you that, likely time to listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Biggest 12z GFS run since the 18z GFS yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Towson and others - the best lesson learned here is not to expect a useful lesson from the 84 hour NAM.....and leave it at that. When you have this many red-taggers telling you that, likely time to listen. I hope someone told RaleighWx that he wasted his time posting this... SOme things to note from the NAM. 1. The NAM is closest to the Canadian through 72-84 hours when compared with the GFS/ECMWF. 2. It is slower and more amplified with the southern stream system. At 84 hours it has a 1003mb low over SW Louisiana. The 6z GFS at 90 hours had it over south-central GEorgia, the 00z ECMWF at 96 hours had it near Mobile Bay, the 00z GGEM at 96 hours had it slightly further east than the NAM just south of the LA central coast. From the 6z GFS ENsemble members, it looked most like members p002, p005, p008, and p 010. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/06zf090.html 3. Also the NAM is much quicker with the northern stream cold front when compared with the GFS and ECMWF at the same time. The front is passing through central Virginia at 00z Sunday and pushing southeast. The area of low pressure will likely ride this front so to speak. If you extract out the 6z GFS Ensemble members and look at the Canadian, one would expect the 12z NAM would likely end up threatening at least, KY/TN/VA/northern NC with snow. It will be interesting to see if the 12z models trend slower/stronger with the southern stream system, and quicker with the cold front moving into the NOrtheast this saturday. Because god forbid we talk about models. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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