needbiggerboat Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I will never understand the point of micro-analyzing surface temps and other minutiae 5+ days out when the major features are literally moving hundreds of miles between runs yet I see it over and over again. The whole "taken verbatim" thing is the worst. Your first clue should be "banter thread" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I will never understand the point of micro-analyzing surface temps and other minutiae 5+ days out when the major features are literally moving hundreds of miles between runs yet I see it over and over again. The whole "taken verbatim" thing is the worst. Why not note it if the precip itself is in question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Damn. I've been away for over two hours and this is all that I get? This sucks. I might as well read non-fiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Lets ride the DGEX since it is such a great model: http://www.emc.ncep.....totsnow192.gif Wow - DGEX sure is great theater solid 12-15 for DC metro from the DGEX.... good herb growing around Wintergreen this year evidentally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just moved up to Laurel/Bowie area from WNC, hope I can break the no-snow mojo for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Folks I'm willing to bet one of the models takes this through the Ohio valley at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Folks I'm willing to bet one of the models takes this through the Ohio valley at 12z NOGAPS already took care of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 NOGAPS already took care of that. 0z NAM looked like it might.... One of the risks of phasing too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just moved up to Laurel/Bowie area from WNC, hope I can break the no-snow mojo for this winter welcome, but I'm not certain you're going to do too much better up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Per request. All of the information regarding the GEFS upgrade (including all of the testing that was done, presentations, etc.) can be found here: http://www.emc.ncep....201109_imp.html There is way too much to go through, so to summarize as best I can: Slight improvement in ensemble mean forecast skill (500 heights, 850 Ts, etc.) Pretty significant improvements to T2m and W10m Overall improvement to verification in tropical skill metrics Improved probabilistic guidance (higher scores for things that measure ensemble usefulness, reliability, sharpness, etc.) Significantly improved ensemble spread (and improved spread/skill relationship) Significantly improved TC tracks (better calibrated spread, lower ensemble mean error) The only real negative I've heard thus far is that the GEFS has inherited some of the operational GFS cold bias (particularly for northern latitudes). Thanks DTK i appreciate it, and i also appreciate you summarizing it for me so i can learn more and easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just moved up to Laurel/Bowie area from WNC, hope I can break the no-snow mojo for this winter Welcome good to have you here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 While some were bemoaning the 12z runs, I still held hope because it was suppressed. But now I don't think there's any way it recovers. Only banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 If this becomes a huge storm for NYC and SNE... I will be very unhappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If this becomes a huge storm for NYC and SNE... I will be very unhappy I'm ready to call it a year. Let them frolic in mud. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 While some were bemoaning the 12z runs, I still held hope because it was suppressed. But now I don't think there's any way it recovers. Only banter. Based on one GFS run? Seriously? Talk about panicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Okaaay, did I make any reference to its viability? No. I just said we would normally have the forum hopping right now. And you write it off.. I say it's finally a depiction from an operational run of this possible outcome which we have been describing for a few days... and from a 00z run inside 120hrs. That's at least noteworthy NE weenies are out in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 While some were bemoaning the 12z runs, I still held hope because it was suppressed. But now I don't think there's any way it recovers. Only banter. Might be premature hopelessness. The solution grab bag will likely continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 NE weenies are out in full force. If Boston gets 2 feet and we get an inch of rain i am going to go postal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Based on one GFS run? Seriously? Talk about panicking. Nah. It's an accumulation of non-events. I never expected this winter to be good or even great, but if we can't manage better than the crappy winters of the '70's, then I'd just assume move on. I'd be shocked if this one comes back in our favor, and my guess is that you've seen enough too. I could be wrong, but I think people like you also know the writing is on the wall. No big deal and I'm not bitter. But I've been in one relationship too many where one or the other hung on too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If Boston gets 2 feet and we get an inch of rain i am going to go postal. I think we all share similar sentiments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There may potentially be another window for something in the last 5 days of the month too. Dropping those breadcrumbs baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If this becomes a huge storm for NYC and SNE... I will be very unhappy I said a while back the classic cap to a winter like this is to watch SNE get a HECS and then a chilly, wet spring arrives in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nah. It's an accumulation of non-events. I never expected this winter to be good or even great, but if we can't manage better than the crappy winters of the '70's, then I'd just assume move on. I'd be shocked if this one comes back in our favor, and my guess is that you've seen enough too. I could be wrong, but I think people like you also know the writing is on the wall. No big deal and I'm not bitter. But I've been in one relationship too many where one or the other hung on too long. To be honest, I'm indifferent about this storm. If it happens, great, I'll be happy. If not, then whatever. With the setup we have, the GFS will make some pretty drastic changes with each run, until we figure out how/if any phase happens, and how it would be affected by the strength of the 50/50 low and other features. Small changes in timing can lead to huge differences at the surface, so by no means will I take this as a linear trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I've seen this story enough times to know how it plays out, when a primary low starts showing up around ohio, it's game, set, match for the DC area - no matter how good the model runs were prior to that. Now, as always I'll hope it's wrong with this development, but boy this is more of a dagger than when these systems are slightly suppressed on a model run. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I said a while back the classic cap to a winter like this is to watch SNE get a HECS and then a chilly, wet spring arrives in the MA. ct blizz doesnt deserve a 2'+ storm.. hopefully they get screwed too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 im having so much fun in the spc tornado database i may never come out -- not sure how it took me so long to get in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 im having so much fun in the spc tornado database i may never come out -- not sure how it took me so long to get in there Oh you will come out when a run shows 1' for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Oh you will come out when a run shows 1' for DC. i'd probably have to be shocked by it occurring as i'd never believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 ct blizz doesnt deserve a 2'+ storm.. hopefully they get screwed too He already had one in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 He already had one in October shouldnt you be posting the ggem somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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