yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ugh, don't ever put the UKMet Model in the same sentence as the DGEX. K. Thanks. (yes, I realize I just did) Its a joke We all should know that the DGEX is nothing really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Its a joke We all should know that the DGEX is nothing really Oh it's something alright. It actually does serve a purpose though, as it's primary motivation was to have high resolution guidance to fill the 5 (or 2.5?) km NDFD forecast grids beyond day 3. It was supposed to be sort of like a downscaled GFS, particularly to help fill the forecast grids out west. I don't think it was never designed/intended to be a real NWP forecast tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 NAM S shortwave looks much stronger at 84 than GFS at 90...saw that in SE thread. Thought I read that we need that stream to be stronger so the N stream doesn't squash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This photo currently on the cover of MSNBC and shows an image from Europe right now - Tuesday afternoon. Now, perhaps that system will circle the globe and hit us next week and save our winter? I never post I only lurk but in light of latest model news perhaps a bit of cheer. link: http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/14/10407742-romania-digs-out-from-15-feet-of-snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This photo currently on the cover of MSNBC and shows an image from Europe right now - Tuesday afternoon. Now, perhaps that system will circle the globe and hit us next week and save our winter? I never post I only lurk but in light of latest model news perhaps a bit of cheer. link: http://photoblog.msn...15-feet-of-snow Damn and i am going to be in Bucharest on Mar 10th. I wish i could have gone a month earlier, beautiful sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Here are Rob Guarino's updated odds for our storm : CHANCE OF 3-6" OF SNOW BALT-NYC 24% CHANCE OF 6"+ OF SNOW BALT-NYC 15% CHANCE OF 12"+ OF SNOW BALT-NYC 9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 NAM S shortwave looks much stronger at 84 than GFS at 90...saw that in SE thread. Thought I read that we need that stream to be stronger so the N stream doesn't squash it. It's best to leave the NAM competely alone for another 2 days. Trust me on this. Been there, done that. Stick exclusively to the globals until the vorts are clearly on US soil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Of course I'm hoping that tonight's and tomorrow's runs build on a more amped system but I have plenty reservations. I hope you have reservations for dinner tonight and you are not planning on watching the 0Z model runs or it may be your last happy valentine's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I hope you have reservations for dinner tonight and you are not planning on watching the 0Z model runs or it may be your last happy valentine's day. Actually, just getting ready to head out in a few. We made an early reservation because it's a school night. I'll be quietly clicking my phone later tonight when nobody's looking. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Actually, just getting ready to head out in a few. We made an early reservation because it's a school night. I'll be quietly clicking my phone later tonight when nobody's looking. lol It is like that commercial that shows this guy checking a game on his phone because he has the fast new service from verizon i think it is, and his girlfriend looks far from happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Here are Rob Guarino's updated odds for our storm : CHANCE OF 3-6" OF SNOW BALT-NYC 24% CHANCE OF 6"+ OF SNOW BALT-NYC 15% CHANCE OF 12"+ OF SNOW BALT-NYC 9% Divide all those by at least 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I am not a mathematical genius but is -1% a statistical probability. It is when you live in the ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Divide all those by at least 10. I will take then 0.9% for 12" please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It is when you live in the ma. I thought he wrote dwindle those by 10, then i saw he said divide so i deleted my post and re answered him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I thought he wrote dwindle those by 10, then i saw he said divide so i deleted my post and re answered him. That's ok, -1% is still probably a fair assessment of our chances of a big event. Then again, there was a point in my life when I thought winning the lottery was 50/50. You either win or you don't. I guess our weekend blizzard is 50/50 too based on that methodology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Divide all those by at least 10. How does one come up with a 24 percent chance anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 How does one come up with a 24 percent chance anyway? It's what you get when you take the sum of the past 4 Euro runs and divide it by stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Annnd the GFS keeps the dream alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I like this run of the GFS......... next up on the GFS Wheel of Fortune --------- Ohio Valley Runner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Annnd the GFS keeps the dream alive! I told you it would be the euro that would do it and I was wrong. Never discount the 18z suite. You think I would know better. It happens every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think a storm that had a period of +SN after a rain/non-accumulation start and dropped 2.7" at DCA and a general 3-6" for DC metro would cause massive jubilation and looting. That is my high-side expectation. Maybe like Calgary after the Stanley Cup Loss, except there was anger there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 How does one come up with a 24 percent chance anyway? I wish i knew, you could probably ask him on his website if you really want to know . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 i have to say the cwg facebook football game snowstorm thing is pretty lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i have to say the cwg facebook football game snowstorm thing is pretty lame looks to be a high scoring game at least...where's the defense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z bufkit is .34 of rain for the "event" at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Lets ride the DGEX since it is such a great model: http://www.emc.ncep.....totsnow192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Lets ride the DGEX since it is such a great model: http://www.emc.ncep.....totsnow192.gif Wow - DGEX sure is great theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 solid 12-15 for DC metro from the DGEX.... good herb growing around Wintergreen this year evidentally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Lets ride the DGEX since it is such a great model: http://www.emc.ncep.....totsnow192.gif Per request. All of the information regarding the GEFS upgrade (including all of the testing that was done, presentations, etc.) can be found here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yzhu/html/imp/201109_imp.html There is way too much to go through, so to summarize as best I can: Slight improvement in ensemble mean forecast skill (500 heights, 850 Ts, etc.) Pretty significant improvements to T2m and W10m Overall improvement to verification in tropical skill metrics Improved probabilistic guidance (higher scores for things that measure ensemble usefulness, reliability, sharpness, etc.) Significantly improved ensemble spread (and improved spread/skill relationship) Significantly improved TC tracks (better calibrated spread, lower ensemble mean error) The only real negative I've heard thus far is that the GEFS has inherited some of the operational GFS cold bias (particularly for northern latitudes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z bufkit is .34 of rain for the "event" at IAD I will never understand the point of micro-analyzing surface temps and other minutiae 5+ days out when the major features are literally moving hundreds of miles between runs yet I see it over and over again. The whole "taken verbatim" thing is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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