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2012 Winter Banter Thread #3


yoda

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DT backing down...

"I have for the last few days of favored the flatter solution as a general overall outlook be cause of this particular winter pattern. The last two winters ...if you farted too loud you get a snowstorm the East Coast because the pattern allowed phasing... in fact it forced a lot of phasing or merging between the two jet streams. This result in a lot of big East Coast winter storms.

This winter as we all know has been a very mild winter because the main pattern or flow has been coming in from the Pacific not from Canada and the arctic regions. THUS for THIS possible event

I suspect that constant Pacific Jet stream energy will keep coming in from the West Coast pushing the Southern System on an easterly or eastern northeasterly track and not allowing it to turn up the coast."

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btw the gfs and the euro handle that energy almost exactly the same in the sw which i already checked as i figured that was on its way out sometime

The low up north is much stronger on the 12z Euro than it was on the 00z run. The GFS has had this strong low as well, which keeps the flow zonal

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DT backing down...

"I have for the last few days of favored the flatter solution as a general overall outlook be cause of this particular winter pattern. The last two winters ...if you farted too loud you get a snowstorm the East Coast because the pattern allowed phasing... in fact it forced a lot of phasing or merging between the two jet streams. This result in a lot of big East Coast winter storms.

This winter as we all know has been a very mild winter because the main pattern or flow has been coming in from the Pacific not from Canada and the arctic regions. THUS for THIS possible event

I suspect that constant Pacific Jet stream energy will keep coming in from the West Coast pushing the Southern System on an easterly or eastern northeasterly track and not allowing it to turn up the coast."

I guess like usual JB will be the last to fold and if by some mircale he is right he can claim he had those thoughts from over a week out and never wavered.

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btw the gfs and the euro handle that energy almost exactly the same in the sw which i already checked as i figured that was on its way out sometime

but you're breaking weenie rule# 3 by logically analyzing all relevant model data, because if a = b, then a =! b because b exhibits bias that backs up your fantasy.

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The low up north is much stronger on the 12z Euro than it was on the 00z run. The GFS has had this strong low as well, which keeps the flow zonal

more often than not that type of low is forecast too strong which is probably why there's room for it to lift north without a phase. but there are a number of reasons why the flow is mainly zonal.. i think the least likely solution is a big amped phased low off the coast.

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DT backing down...

"I have for the last few days of favored the flatter solution as a general overall outlook be cause of this particular winter pattern. The last two winters ...if you farted too loud you get a snowstorm the East Coast because the pattern allowed phasing... in fact it forced a lot of phasing or merging between the two jet streams. This result in a lot of big East Coast winter storms.

This winter as we all know has been a very mild winter because the main pattern or flow has been coming in from the Pacific not from Canada and the arctic regions. THUS for THIS possible event

I suspect that constant Pacific Jet stream energy will keep coming in from the West Coast pushing the Southern System on an easterly or eastern northeasterly track and not allowing it to turn up the coast."

now the storm will come back

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more often than not that type of low is forecast too strong which is probably why there's room for it to lift north without a phase. but there are a number of reasons why the flow is mainly zonal.. i think the least likely solution is a big amped phased low off the coast.

Oh I don't doubt that - was just stating what I saw from last night and today. Even with the phase something is needed for the storm to come north, otherwise it is OTS. The low up north at least provided something to bring it north.

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more often than not that type of low is forecast too strong which is probably why there's room for it to lift north without a phase. but there are a number of reasons why the flow is mainly zonal.. i think the least likely solution is a big amped phased low off the coast.

And the most likely solution to have an all snow event is to get fringed with an ots track. Getting all fired up into thinking we're going to have an amped coasted is not realistic but having the storm juicy enough to put down 2-4" on the nw fringe isn't all that unrealistic. at least I don't think it is.

If the precip comes in at night and starts as snow it will probably stay all snow. 2-4" ftw

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