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2012 Winter Banter Thread #3


yoda

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And those are just the EURO and GFS?

Pretty much. I don't look at the UKMet but it's on that list as well. NAM's good inside of 48 if you know how to compensate for its biases.

EDIT: Knowing the ins and outs of 2-3 models and knowing how to compensate for their errors is many times better than trying to look at a half dozen models that you know very little about.

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After seeing the GFS kinda caved today, I have a sneaking suspicion that the euro holds serve with a coastal. It will likely wobble with the precip but the general idea may stay the same.

Is this going to be one of those weird times when the euro locks in and never really wavers much?

i think the euro locks in more than we might think.. we only care when there's green over our heads. the models are pretty good--better than they get credit for.

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So let me see if I have this right from the perspective of our sub-forum:

Euro: God

GFS: dumbas$ demi-god

NAM: the dumbas$ demi-god's stupid brother

GGEM: horse sh!t

Ukie: dog sh!t

JMA: anti-christ

DGEX/CRAS/BOM: gerbil sh!t

The Ukie is very good it is just not great with winter storms supposedly.

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My weenie rule is it can lose it for one run but more then that it is over.

the euro has done this at this range already this yr.. and everyone fell for it then as well. unfortunately the strung out passing to our south look fits pretty well despite any better signs. NOW we can go back to talking about how the models suck at this range at least. bipolarity meds for all.

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idk- i was kinda happy that the euro still shows a gom low.

Next step is to have it creep further n&w so we can say the trend is our friend. Then when it gets surpressed again we can say it's right where we want it at this stage. Then it comes back but still stays s&e and we can say I don't want to be in the bullseye at this range.

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the euro has done this at this range already this yr.. and everyone fell for it then as well. unfortunately the strung out passing to our south look fits pretty well despite any better signs. NOW we can go back to talking about how the models suck at this range at least. bipolarity meds for all.

At least it lost it now had it showed it for another 2 or 3 runs and then pulled the rug it would have gotten ugly in here.

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