astarck Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Point and Click: Today: Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. High near 50. South wind between 9 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. BestForecast for DC: Wednesday Overcast with rain, then a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the afternoon. High of 63F. Winds from the SSE at 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Interesting as always, Bob. Thanks. Do you have the NAO numbers for the years as a whole? Obviously, NAO in winter means more to folks on the board than does NAO in summer, but it'd be interesting to see where the numbers stack up for whole years (or even the entire -NAO period in the 60s v., say, the last seven years). And when I say "interesting," I mean just in terms of curiosity. Ask and ye shall receive. It's not all that interesting really. Since the index is an oscillation, the more years you include the closer to zero you end up. On a monthly basis, the index averaged just about -.024 over the last 60 years. Pretty much neutral as it should be. Maybe a slight negative bias but it wouldn't take much to even it out. When you start looking at decadal stuff it does start to draw some interest though. Here is the monthly average NAO for each decade since the 50's: 50's: -.145 60's: -.226 70's: +.060 80's: +.125 90's: +.166 00's: -.052 The monthly 2010 decade average to date is -.366. If you look at it from a decadal perspective it appears that maybe the 2010 decade will end up as a general negative bias overall (just a guess). I supposre there is an argument that the cylce started in 2008 and the data lines up ok with the 2010 decade ytd avereage. 2008 through Jan 2012 (49 months) has averaged -.339. This past winter was quite anomalous though. Record setting stuff. At least a recent history record anyway. There are clear periods of bias with the NAO (and most other teleconnections I assume) but I'm probably not one to ask questions as to the whys and hows. The NAO isn't very stable so I should probably do this type of analysis with the AO and see what shakes out. That would probably tell a better picture of colder periods vs warmer periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Point and Click: Today: Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. High near 50. South wind between 9 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. BestForecast for DC: Wednesday Overcast with rain, then a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the afternoon. High of 63F. Winds from the SSE at 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible. Interesting. Both the RUC and NAM take us to near 60° by midnight. The NWS doesn't have that, they stick the temps on their hourly graph to around 50. However, by just throwing a high temperature out there, wunderground will certainly bust in most people's eyes because we aren't going to be anywhere near 63 during the daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I wonder what the record rainfall for Feb. 29 is and whether any of the airports are getting close/exceeding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I wonder what the record rainfall for Feb. 29 is and whether any of the airports are getting close/exceeding it. Good question. I'm more interested in snowfall for Feb 30th. We had a threat on the models that didn't pan out. Maybe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 12z GFS has measurable precip for every 12hr period from hour 204-384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 12z GFS has measurable precip for every 12hr period from hour 204-384 just think what might have happened if the NINA collapsed a month earlier....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 12z GFS has measurable precip for every 12hr period from hour 204-384 And every little bit of it as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Sky Harbor Airport, Duluth, MN KDYT 291613Z AUTO 06033G49KT M1/4SM UP OVC003 01/M01 A2947 RMK AO2 KDYT 291554Z AUTO 06036G49KT M1/4SM UP OVC003 01/M01 A2947 RMK AO2 KDYT 291533Z AUTO 05037G46KT M1/4SM UP OVC005 01/M01 A2946 RMK AO2 KDYT 291513Z AUTO 05038G48KT M1/4SM UP OVC005 01/M01 A2946 RMK AO2 KDYT 291453Z AUTO 06040G47KT M1/4SM UP OVC003 00/M01 A2947 RMK AO2 KDYT 291433Z AUTO 06037G46KT M1/4SM UP OVC005 01/M01 A2949 RMK AO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 In honor of the last day of met. winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Got about 2-2.5" here in POU today if I had to guess. Brings the total amount of snow I've seen in the past two winters combined (including both home and school) to like 16" I don't bother venturing into the NY/PA subforums, so I'll just post my shi tty photo taken from my dorm window in the banter thread. Heading home for 2 weeks tomorrow for Spring Break to enjoy the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Is canaanweather.4t.com officially gone now? I get a hosting site when I go there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 I feel silly waiting for the 00z GFS to get to 102 hrs so I can see our Sunday night clipper go poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 It's February 30th, where's my snow JI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 LWX has kept close tabs on this winter's lack of stickage and abundance of suckage. CLIMATE... PRELIMINARY CLIMATE STATS FOR THE 2011-12 METEOROLOGICAL WINTER /DEFINED AS DEC-FEB/... ...AVG TEMPS THIS METEOROLOGICAL WINTER... DCA...43.4F RANKS 3RD WARMEST WINTER ON RECORD /BEHIND 44.6F IN 1931-32 AND 44.3F IN 1889-90. BWI...40.7F RANKS 7TH WARMEST WINTER ON RECORD /45.3F IN 1931-32 IS THE WARMEST/...AND THE WARMEST WINTER SINCE 1949-50. IAD...40.1F RANKS WARMEST ON RECORD...WHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS WARMEST WINTER OF 39.8F SET IN 2001-02. ...SNOWFALL THIS METEOROLOGICAL WINTER... DCA...2.0 INCHES IS TIED WITH 2008-09 FOR THE 8TH LEAST SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD. THE LOWEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE 0.1 INCH SET TWICE IN 1972-73 AND 1997-98. IF NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS MEASURED THIS SPRING AT DCA...THEN THIS SEASON WOULD BE THE 3RD LEAST SNOWIEST ON RECORD /ONLY BEHIND 0.1 INCHES IN 1972-73 AND 1997-98/. BWI...1.8 INCHES IS THE 5TH LEAST SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD. THE LOWEST SNOWFALL TOTAL WAS 0.5 INCHES IN 1949-50. IF NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS MEASURED THIS SPRING AT BWI...THEN THIS SEASON WOULD BE THE 3RD LEAST SNOWIEST ON RECORD /ONLY BEHIND 0.7 INCHES IN 1949-50 AND 1.2 INCHES IN 1972-73/. IAD...3.1 INCHES IS THE 5TH LEAST SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD. THE LOWEST SNOWFALL TOTAL WAS 0.3 INCHES IN 1972-73. IF NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS MEASURED THIS SPRING AT IAD...THEN THIS SEASON WOULD BE THE 3RD LEAST SNOWIEST ON RECORD /ONLY BEHIND 2.2 INCHES IN 1972-73 AND 2.6 INCHES IN 2001-02/. OTHER MISC WINTER STATS... THE DAILY MAX TEMP WAS ABOVE FREEZING AT DCA ON ALL BUT ONE DAY THIS WINTER. ONLY SIX OTHER WINTERS ON RECORD HAD ONE OR NO DAYS THAT THE DAILY TEMPERATURE FAILED TO BREAK THE FREEZING MARK /1931-32 AND 1997-98 WHERE THE ONLY WINTERS THAT NEVER HAD A FREEZING DAY/. REALLY COLD DAYS THIS PAST WINTER WERE RARE. AT DCA...DAILY TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5F OR MORE BELOW NORMALS OCCURRED ON 7 DAYS THIS ENTIRE WINTER /1 IN DEC...4 IN JAN AND 2 IN FEB/. AT BWI...ONLY 6 DAYS AVERAGED 5F OR MORE BELOW NORMAL /1 IN DEC...4 IN FEB AND 1 IN FEB/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 LWX has kept close tabs on this winter's lack of stickage and abundance of suckage. Those stats really drive home how bad this winter was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Unreal. At least it is time to put it to bed and get ready for spring. Next winter is sure to be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 So it's official..........this winter was warmer than 01-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Mods please close this thread for the good of us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 A little something to end our winter with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Our long national nightmare is finally over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I said on New Year's Day that we had a decent shot at the least snowiest winter ever and I got laughed at. It wasn't such a far fetched idea after all, was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 it can only get better next year (he says w/o conviction, but with Cubs fan type hope) http://www.cpc.ncep....3/glbSSTSea.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 it can only get better next year (he says w/o conviction, but with Cubs fan type hope) http://www.cpc.ncep....3/glbSSTSea.gif Ugh.........based on what I know, we want a west based el Nino if we want cold and snow, not east based. But I guess any Nino is better than another Nina or a neutral which follows a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Ugh.........based on what I know, we want a west based el Nino if we want cold and snow, not east based. But I guess any Nino is better than another Nina or a neutral which follows a Nina. I was looking at that and I wouldn't consider that (if true, of course) east or west based per se (I'm looking at the last panel) not too much different than 09/10 http://www.osdpd.noa....12.31.2009.gif classic east based would be 97/98 monster http://www.osdpd.noa....12.30.1997.gif I think we root for a NINO of some kind and hope for the best I don't want to see another NINA until at least 13/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I was looking at that and I wouldn't consider that (if true, of course) east or west based per se (I'm looking at the last panel) not too much different than 09/10 http://www.osdpd.noa....12.31.2009.gif classic east based would be 97/98 monster http://www.osdpd.noa....12.30.1997.gif I think we root for a NINO of some kind and hope for the best I don't want to see another NINA until at least 13/14 Pretty much agree. Weak nino would be the best we can hope for. Neutral may not be that bad though. The "nina hangover" effect prob wouldn't be that big of a deal because the majority of this winter didn't behave like a classic nina at all. We had some ok storm tracks this year. It was very unusual to have virtually no cold air to work with at all. How can you have bl issues in prime time climo with a decent hp in se canada? We had a hard core +ao/nao winter. Enso took a back seat to that. I'd take an enso neutral with volitile teleconnections next year with no complaints. Maybe we get lucky this summer and avoid having long stretches on 95 and humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Pretty much agree. Weak nino would be the best we can hope for. Neutral may not be that bad though. The "nina hangover" effect prob wouldn't be that big of a deal because the majority of this winter didn't behave like a classic nina at all. We had some ok storm tracks this year. It was very unusual to have virtually no cold air to work with at all. How can you have bl issues in prime time climo with a decent hp in se canada? We had a hard core +ao/nao winter. Enso took a back seat to that. I'd take an enso neutral with volitile teleconnections next year with no complaints. Maybe we get lucky this summer and avoid having long stretches on 95 and humid. like I mentioned earlier in this thread (I believe), normal or below summer temps is the consolation prize of a NINO if nothing else that's why weather-wise, 3/1/09-2/28/10 will never be beat in these parts, never.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 like I mentioned earlier in this thread (I believe), normal or below summer temps is the consolation prize of a NINO if nothing else that's why weather-wise, 3/1/09-2/28/10 will never be beat in these parts, never.... absolutely agree. that was one of the best summers I can remember, and then followed by one of the best winters. unfortunately, since then we've consecutively gone through two of the worst summers in human history, as well as two of the most miserable winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Our long national nightmare is finally over. However, with baseball season just around the corner, we still have to endure a long "Nationals" nightmare!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I am not a Nats fan (Reds fan actually), but do not sleep on the Nats this year. They are legit. I think they could be a .500 team easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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