MidlothianWX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Smells like a January 24th, 2000 redux, I'm not joking around either unless all of that precip is virga. DC is already in light returns... Not trying to be a downer or anything but I think you'll be surprised how quickly this thing wraps up and turns due E or ENE. Short range meso depictions have the ULL taking over within the next hour or two and scooting offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Smells like a January 24th, 2000 redux, I'm not joking around either unless all of that precip is virga. DC is already in light returns... It is all virga until down south of Dale City. Remember, LWX's radar is down, so the other WSR-88Ds that comprise the composite will be way up into the cloud. TDWRs are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 No northward shift in precip, sorry snow lovers. Current radar with 12Z NAM overlay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We are on route 3 near Lake of the woods. Steady snow. Big flakes. Around 35. Not sticking yet. Any suggestions/advice welcome. If you head southwest towards Gordonsville, there should be a heavier band moving through in about 30-40 minutes, should put down some accumulations and some large flakes. But there will be some clearing first so if you go there and the snow stops or becomes lighter don't think that it is over or I led you to the wrong place.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We are on route 3 near Lake of the woods. Steady snow. Big flakes. Around 35. Not sticking yet. Any suggestions/advice welcome. Head SW towards Charlottesville... there's a pretty nice band heading into Lynchburg right now that's coming northeast towards you. EDIT: What NOVA said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We are on route 3 near Lake of the woods. Steady snow. Big flakes. Around 35. Not sticking yet. Any suggestions/advice welcome. The Lynchburg/Roanoke/Blacksburg stuff is the main game, as far as I can tell. You might as well get a little further south if you guys aren't concerned about wasting too much time/gas on this trip. Maybe Mineral/Lake Anna. The RUC and HRRR both insist on this band becoming more easterly moving as the day goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Hmmmmmm HRRR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The Lynchburg/Roanoke/Blacksburg stuff is the main game, as far as I can tell. You might as well get a little further south if you guys aren't concerned about wasting too much time/gas on this trip. Maybe Mineral/Lake Anna. The RUC and HRRR both insist on this band becoming more easterly moving as the day goes on. Yup. get anywhere between Charlottesville and Lynchburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Hmmmmmm HRRR.... I love how the dividing line is the Potomac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yup. get anywhere between Charlottesville and Lynchburg. They can also let it come to them if they don't want to go that far. I think they can stay N of 64 and still see some good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsdomination09 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 very interesting Tony Pann..... newest post on fb tonight at 5.... uhh last post of the night... lwx radar is down but things are moving due north and the low is 150 miles north of where it should be... last fb post of the night. Snow starts in a few hours (aka long enough for him to gtfo lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Who was that guy locking in 3-6" for the Baltimore area yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Who was that guy locking in 3-6" for the Baltimore area yesterday? Tony Pann who is the 3rd string met on the local NBC channel here in Baltimore . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Who was that guy locking in 3-6" for the Baltimore area yesterday? Tony Pann who is the 3rd string met on the local NBC channel here in Baltimore . Berk was saying the same thing IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsdomination09 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 lol http://www.facebook.com/#!/tony.pann?sk=wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Tony Pann who is the 3rd string met on the local NBC channel here in Baltimore . Pretty sure he is number 2 behind Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Pretty sure he is number 2 behind Tom Correct. They wake Jon up when they need help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Tony Pann who is the 3rd string met on the local NBC channel here in Baltimore . Pann is usually very conservative. He is one of the better ones IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Pann is usually very conservative. He is one of the better ones IMO Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Jesus, they just dont know when to quit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Jesus, they just dont know when to quit Nope. Ive enjoyed my clouds today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nope. Ive enjoyed my clouds today. I debated sunscreen before my afternoon errands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I debated sunscreen before my afternoon errands Haha. I was getting depresses because I wouldn't see a flake. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Geez. Those pictures really bring me to the ledge. Ok. Sunscreen is good. We will need it. Where is Mapgirl's torch? Looking towards Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Should be a bunch of new Met positions opening up in Charm *cough* city come tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Intellicast weenie radar sure is purdy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...PORTIONS OF FAR NERN NC CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 192302Z - 200200Z SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SERN VA AND FAR NERN NC. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE BY 03-06Z. PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL EXIT OFF THE VA/NC COAST BY 06Z. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OFF THE NC/SC COASTLINE...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD TO A LOCATION OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BETWEEN 03-06Z. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK FROM NELY TO NLY OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NERN NC AND SERN VA. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES AN E-W ORIENTED ZONE OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING POSITIONED FROM CNTRL VA INTO SERN MD DURING THE EVENING. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE UVV/S ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 00-03Z...WITH WARM NELY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING LESS OF A FACTOR AS WINDS BACK TO NLY. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SATURATED ISOTHERMAL PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB DEPICTED IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS...SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 1-2 IN/HR DURING THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT. ..GARNER.. 02/19/2012 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH... LAT...LON 36247791 36927820 37817801 38167739 38027663 37067626 36597637 36277702 36247791 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsdomination09 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 wait so if Tony Pann and Justin Berk put me in their 3-6 range near baltimore.... and people are saying this looks like a bust should I tell all my friends only lyke 2-4" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spud Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 wait so if Tony Pann and Justin Berk put me in their 3-6 range near baltimore.... and people are saying this looks like a bust should I tell all my friends only lyke 2-4" ? You should tell them less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Man, with lwx radar being down i went ahead and looked at intellicast, accuwx, and weather channel interactive. I'm gonna get smoked. 1/24/2000 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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