nw baltimore wx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 4:17 PM, Ian said: https://www.facebook...&id=54875673475 Well done. That's how rumors get started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 4:20 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Well done. That's how rumors get started. "Ian you are correct that the CRAS has not been right before. HOWEVER, I have noticed it is in systems like this when the CRAS is at its best." :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 4:24 PM, Ian said: "Ian you are correct that the CRAS has not been right before. HOWEVER, I have noticed it is in systems like this when the CRAS is at its best." :-/ At it's best and never right. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Wait to jump ship, JB just tweeted that we are getting 10 cold days in the east starting Thursday. That must mean the weekend system will be snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It'd be funny after all of this if the radar hallucinations ended up being correct and we got some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 5:07 PM, zwyts said: RUC gets DC and southern burbs into really good snow later....hmmmm hi res seem to be chiming in on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Out here expecting nada, really. But I hope DCA can squeak something out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The RUC reliability is mixed. I am not a good decision maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 5:09 PM, PhineasC said: It'd be funny after all of this if the radar hallucinations ended up being correct and we got some snow. well this initial band isn't a hallucination...the question is how far north does it go...its on a beeline towards charlottesville right now... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=fcx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This is classic: http://horizonweathe...ne-t383-75.html Ruggie and Justin Berk in the same camp . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well I spent some time and made and made an overlay of the 12Z NAM on the current radar, and it matches up quite well: It's slightly off, but it's the best I can do with paint.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Both the Euro and GFS want to take us to the mid-60s by the end of next week. So we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 6:37 PM, MN Transplant said: Both the Euro and GFS want to take us to the mid-60s by the end of next week. So we have that going for us. Good. End this miserable winter and FeBBruary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 6:38 PM, zwyts said: Ian and I are chasing....leaving at 2:30...any suggestions on route, elevation?, etc would be appreciate...not sure if we will go south or more southwest I'd head out I-66 to Rt 29 south and just keep driving until you get into the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 6:04 AM, Ian said: WinterWxLuvr will be less happy tomorrow morning than he was this morning. At least it will be consistent with south trend he was on top of from Fri night on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I like the fact that he doesn't give up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 6:38 PM, zwyts said: Ian and I are chasing....leaving at 2:30...any suggestions on route, elevation?, etc would be appreciate...not sure if we will go south or more southwest Snow falling up I 81 already about 20 miles south of Staunton (SHD). Either take andys suggestion or I 66 W to I 81 South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 6:38 PM, zwyts said: Ian and I are chasing....leaving at 2:30...any suggestions on route, elevation?, etc would be appreciate...not sure if we will go south or more southwest On 2/19/2012 at 6:41 PM, H2O said: I'd head out I-66 to Rt 29 south and just keep driving until you get into the good stuff. Agree, 29S to Culpepper and then follow the radar from there. edit - plus there's a nice backup on 95 right now near Dale City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 6:50 PM, MN Transplant said: Agree, 29S to Culpepper and then follow the radar from there. Good point or 29 to warrenton then take 211 over the top of skyline drive towards Luray and then cross the massanutten range, at least they get some elevation as they cross the skyline drive on 211 and then again on Massanutten mtn range on 211 before coming in to New Market. Then take 81S towards SHD or 81 N back home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Light snows now breaking out in Raphine, VA, exit 205, getting closer to Staunton, VA and some flurries in CHO now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Sheer force of will. C'mon baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 this thing is trending north just enough at the last minute...radar filling in a bit in west virginia...it might be a close call, but i think dc may get in on some action later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 6:54 PM, MN Transplant said: Sheer force of will. C'mon baby. Please verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 6:57 PM, NOVAForecaster said: Please verify.... Better to use the 1km reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 An epic week of lurkerdom... I'm glad there's a DC delegation heading to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 6:57 PM, 87storms said: this thing is trending north just enough at the last minute...radar filling in a bit in west virginia...it might be a close call, but i think dc may get in on some action later... Not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 7:05 PM, zwyts said: Thanks. I like the idea of culpeper and then maneuvering from there I like Staunton. You can catch a very nice cocktail and meal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 7:04 PM, MN Transplant said: Better to use the 1km reflectivity. Ok. It gets soooooooo close I can taste it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 7:14 PM, zwyts said: I think elevation may take too long and I don't think we need it. just a shot in the dark...but i'd target in a line from Fredericksburg to Charlottesville to Culpepper...good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On 2/19/2012 at 7:14 PM, zwyts said: I think elevation may take too long and I don't think we need it. upside is not huge.. if we can get into heavy snow for 2-3 hr it should be OK at least. heading culpeper way seems like a decent plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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