yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:33 PM, Ian said: sweet.. a good time for me to make my return home. I will analyze it by street if you want me to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:32 PM, yoda said: I will have the 18z RGEM in like 2 mins The 18Z RGEM is your new weenie model to hug. It looks amped up 12Z NAM style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:35 PM, baroclinic_instability said: The 18Z RGEM is your new weenie model to hug. It looks amped up 12Z NAM style. The RGEM seems to always show the snowiest solution possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:36 PM, PhineasC said: The RGEM seems to always show the snowiest solution possible. Then thats the one we should hug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:36 PM, PhineasC said: The RGEM seems to always show the snowiest solution possible. put your faith in the short range models bro...this is why they were built..for 24-36 hour forecasting. In NAM,RGEM i trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:31 PM, Ian said: ddweatherman sees some problems with the 18z gfs ddweatherman algorithm: IF >GFS is solid hit THEN >NO errors in model or int. IF >GFS further south <AND/OR> >GFS shows sharp cutoff >SOUTH of ddweatherman THEN >GFS has int. errors OR convective feedback OR missing ROAB data OR GFS node infected by ILOVEYOU virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:37 PM, H2O said: Then thats the one we should hug I'm having a threesome with the NAM and RGEM for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:34 PM, yoda said: I will analyze it by street if you want me to... By property line if at all possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:36 PM, PhineasC said: The RGEM seems to always show the snowiest solution possible. A very general bias amongst the RGEM is it has a tendency to be very "amped" under stronger magnitude systems although the bias isn't as bad as the NAM sometimes. It can be highly useful with very intense systems (think Groundshog Day Feb 1 2011...it was the best guidance within day 2). I do, once again, under general guidelines, think thr RGEM is a much better numerical model than the NAM, but it is prolly a bit too intense here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:37 PM, Ji said: put your faith in the short range models bro...this is why they were built..for 24-36 hour forecasting. In NAM,RGEM i trust Going down with the ship. Admirable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:38 PM, stormtracker said: ddweatherman algorithm:IF>GFS is solid hitTHEN>NO errors in model or int.IF>GFS further south<AND/OR>>GFS shows sharp cutoff >SOUTH of ddweathermanTHEN>GFS has int. errors OR convective feedback OR missing ROAB data OR GFS node infected by ILOVEYOU virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:37 PM, yoda said: FWIW, 18z RGEM (only goes out to 48) 36 hrs -- 1003 mb L SW MS 42 hrs -- 999 mb L NW AL 48 hrs -- 998 mb extreme SE TN with what looks to be a transfer going on No need to say FWIW anymore, yoda. You are gonna post em regardless. It's cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:38 PM, stormtracker said: ddweatherman algorithm: IF >GFS is solid hit THEN >NO errors in model or int. IF >GFS further south <AND/OR> >GFS shows sharp cutoff >SOUTH of ddweatherman THEN >GFS has int. errors OR convective feedback OR missing ROAB data OR GFS node infected by ILOVEYOU virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 LOL who am I kidding, the GFS is going to look horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:39 PM, H2O said: No need to say FWIW anymore, yoda. You are gonna post em regardless. It's cool I forgot to compare to 12z so that Randy knows every single mile it moved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:39 PM, H2O said: No need to say FWIW anymore, yoda. You are gonna post em regardless. It's cool He should mix it up a little with the occasional "BTW" or "FYI." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, the RGEm does look like it would be a solid blow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:38 PM, stormtracker said: ddweatherman algorithm: IF >GFS is solid hit THEN >NO errors in model or int. IF >GFS further south <AND/OR> >GFS shows sharp cutoff >SOUTH of ddweatherman THEN >GFS has int. errors OR convective feedback OR missing ROAB data OR GFS node infected by ILOVEYOU virus. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:40 PM, stormtracker said: FWIW, the RGEm does look like it would be a solid blow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:40 PM, PhineasC said: He should mix it up a little with the occasional "BTW" or "FYI." i shall try that with the 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:41 PM, H2O said: You see what I did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:40 PM, stormtracker said: FWIW, the RGEm does look like it would be a solid blow here. i solid blow is better than 1" of sadness, amirite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:40 PM, stormtracker said: FWIW, the RGEm does look like it would be a solid blow here. dont all models look like that at 48 before they transfer... fall apart and dry up like Marcus _ _ _ _ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 At least Yoda can take his ribbing in stride, I'll give him that much. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:42 PM, Ian said: i solid blow is better than 1" of sadness, amirite? Indeed. It's either 4" or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:40 PM, stormtracker said: FWIW, the RGEm does look like it would be a solid blow here. Once it hits the confluence it will straight up blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:25 PM, Ian said: we won't have 10:1 ratios thru the event.. maybe in solid banding etc (should it occur). so i think to get to 4-5" we'd need like .6-.75" qpf or something. that seems a pretty far stretch based on the euro and gfs. not to say it's impossible but it seems unlikely. Ooops, you caught my typo...I meant 2.4 - 3.5. I fully expect error-laden snow though. Make no initialized mistake about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i like how yesterday psuhoffman was like "yo yo north trend not for sure" but now he's remembering how a model fringe can end in a solid pounding and he's joined with the north wishers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:42 PM, Ji said: dont all models look like that at 48 before they transfer... fall apart and dry up like Marcus _ _ _ _ I lol'd. I think that may be our longest running inside joke ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 9:44 PM, stormtracker said: I lol'd. I think that may be our longest running inside joke ever. unfortunately...our longest running outside joke is mountain high...valley low. We actually pretty much live in Death Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.