Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:05 PM, NE Balti Zen said: Yeah, not as good by 66. Scooting east with not too much qpf on that run at first glance. Tug of war between the north and south solutions. We'll see which one wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:05 PM, NE Balti Zen said: Yeah, not as good by 66. Scooting east with not too much qpf on that run at first glance. yep- the nam giveth and the gfs taketh. Could be trouble could be wrong. Who knows? Can't freak out at this point. Miller A's are fun and the finer details aren't nailed down until we're inside of 24 hrs. We're still clearly in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The south solution leaves a snow hole at my house. I'd lean that direction based on how this winter has unfolded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 crap. looks like a map update is in order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:09 PM, NE Balti Zen said: The south solution leaves a snow hole at my house. I'd lean that direction based on how this winter has unfolded... Forecasting persistence is a very real forecasting tool. The obivious ironic thing that can happen today is for the euro to look like the 12z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We need the EURO to at least hold on to what it had last night. If it gets worse than we might want to start being concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:11 PM, Bob Chill said: Forecasting persistence is a very real forecasting tool. The obivious ironic thing that can happen today is for the euro to look like the 12z nam. The Ukie sucked balls again at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I can hear the sound of hopes and dreams being crushed now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm waiting for somebody (Yoda maybe) to post the MM5 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:12 PM, mapgirl said: I can hear the sound of hopes and dreams being crushed now I almost need earplugs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 As much as I want to sugar coat is...I can't....gfs kinda sucked. Didn't like the shift in the lp track. That was the feature that was keeping me optimistic. All models had it in the same place even with variation in the precip shield. gfs definitely moved it s&w enough to scare the fringe out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ddweatherman is such a fricken weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:15 PM, Ian said: ddweatherman is such a fricken weenie The best was when Scott compared him to CTblizz and snowNH . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:15 PM, Ian said: ddweatherman is such a fricken weenie posting that the gfs appears error-laden in a model thread full of mets is an error-laden decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 According to Coastal's post in the model thread we are screwed, he says he does not see more than a 30 mile jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:12 PM, ravensrule said: The Ukie sucked balls again at 12Z. How much QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the euro sucks I'm going to have a hard time deciding what to eat for lunch. Zanax, prozac, or wellbutrin? hmmm....decisions decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:58 PM, ddweatherman said: Looks a little error laden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:21 PM, usedtobe said: How much QPF? .25 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:22 PM, MidlothianWX said: Alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:20 PM, ravensrule said: According to Coastal's post in the model thread we are screwed, he says he does not see more than a 30 mile jog. im not sure i'd believe that.. tho i doubt it will be huge at this pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:22 PM, ravensrule said: .25 for DC. T Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:24 PM, Ian said: im not sure i'd believe that.. tho i doubt it will be huge at this pt Well Baroclinic does not seem to agree with him and outside of Wes i trust him the most, so i will wait to head to the 14th st bridge until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:24 PM, usedtobe said: T Thanks Thats what we probably end up with in Baltimore . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:23 PM, ddweatherman said: Alright Just playing around man...we're all weenies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:27 PM, MidlothianWX said: Just playing around man...we're all weenies here. Awww did you hurt his feelings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:26 PM, ravensrule said: Thats what we probably end up with in Baltimore . My guess in Baltimore mostly cloudy with a flurry or two at this point. Yeah call me a weenie, but this is yet another suckerpunch from winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:24 PM, Ian said: im not sure i'd believe that.. tho i doubt it will be huge at this pt I said I think we are within a solution...maybe 30-50 mile difference on either side of the 12z solutions right now. Just to be clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The last time there were not errors on the modeling was leading up to Feb. 10, 2010. Everything after that..."error laden". For two years now. I am going to have dd write a stern letter entitled "Error Laden Models... Fix Them to Give Me Snow" to send to dtk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:28 PM, CoastalWx said: I said I think we are within a solution...maybe 30-50 mile difference on either side of the 12z solutions right now. Just to be clear. So basically our last hope is the Euro, if it does not come north you are saying we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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