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Recent Dry Pattern


bluewave

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We have been recently experiencing a dry pattern around the region and along the East Coast.

So far NYC only has picked up 0.12 in of precipitation since February 1st. Many local spots were

drier than Central Park during January.

The driest months in NYC since 1980 have been during cold Pacific conditions like currently exist.

Precipitation/in...Month

0.18...8/95

0.44...7/99

0.48...9/05

0.58...1/81

0.58..12/80

0.59...6/99

0.59...8/81

0.66..10/01

0.68..10/00

0.80...3/06

0.83..12/89

0.83..12/85

0.93..2/09

Cold Pacific SST composite for above dates

Current Pacific SST

Since the drought ended during the first half of 2002, all dry intervals have been relatively brief for our area.

It will be interesting to see how long the dry conditions last this time around.

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another good thread Bluewave...so when you say cold Pacific conditions, you mean LA Nina's and not cold PDO I assume.

Thanks,the composite really covers both. The driest months here since 1980 have been neutral cold to cold ENSO.

Quite a few also on the cold side of the PDO.

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Good post Chris.

I don't think the Northeast is ready to transition into a predominately dry period, at least not yet. On a decadal time scale, the 1950s turned much drier across the Plains/Central US into the OH/TN valleys as the PDO entered its cold phase. However, the AMO was still warm through the 1950s, which allowed the East Coast to continue to receive plentiful pcpn. It wasn't until the 1960s that we really saw drought conditions take control in the Northeast, which was due in large part to the AMO flipping cold by the early/mid 60s. Not surprising that the 1960s were very dry w/ a -PDO and -AMO. Cold oceans --> less energy --> less upward motion --> less precipitation over the continent.

1950s, where we are now climatically IMO (around the mid 50s, several years into the PDO reversal).

30dfdvn.png

1960s, much drier in the NE

358cew9.png

Note the 1990s, a warm PDO and warm AMO yield a very wet picture...

25atai9.png

If I had to guess, I'd say we still have another 3-5 years before we begin entering much drier times in the Northeast. However, the upcoming 1-2 years will probably be less stormy than the past several years, which featured unprecedented, excessive wetness.

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Good post Chris.

I don't think the Northeast is ready to transition into a predominately dry period, at least not yet. On a decadal time scale, the 1950s turned much drier across the Plains/Central US into the OH/TN valleys as the PDO entered its cold phase. However, the AMO was still warm through the 1950s, which allowed the East Coast to continue to receive plentiful pcpn. It wasn't until the 1960s that we really saw drought conditions take control in the Northeast, which was due in large part to the AMO flipping cold by the early/mid 60s. Not surprising that the 1960s were very dry w/ a -PDO and -AMO. Cold oceans --> less energy --> less upward motion --> less precipitation over the continent.

1950s, where we are now climatically IMO (around the mid 50s, several years into the PDO reversal).

30dfdvn.png

1960s, much drier in the NE

358cew9.png

Note the 1990s, a warm PDO and warm AMO yield a very wet picture...

25atai9.png

If I had to guess, I'd say we still have another 3-5 years before we begin entering much drier times in the Northeast. However, the upcoming 1-2 years will probably be less stormy than the past several years, which featured unprecedented, excessive wetness.

Nice post Tom. The timing looks similar to the second year Nina back in early 2009.

We rebounded rather quickly from that one as we got into the mid-spring. It's

been an impressive wet run after the drought conditions improved mid way through

2002.

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