Geos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The High Resolution NMM and ARW have taken after the NAM tonight with plenty of moisture on the "cold" side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Barring a miracle, looks like a substantial failure for the Euro at < 48 hours. Don't see that very often, but I guess it being out on a limb was a sign to take its prior solution with extreme caution. Much like last week ( except that went the other way and thus we got a surprise snow event) the models are struggling big time with the northern energy. In both cases though the northern energy has ended up stronger and further sw but this go around it killed our southern system and also why we look to be fighting BL temp issues. THAT has implications with that next piece of energy dropping in at around 90hrs or so. If the models are again doing the same ( chances are high that they are ) then it will probably change the outcome/track of that next juicy southern system coming in out of the sw. Not saying it will but the chances would be much better for that northern energy to pull up that southern system alot quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Much like last week ( except that went the other way and thus we got a surprise snow event) the models are struggling big time with the northern energy. In both cases though the northern energy has ended up stronger and further sw but this go around it killed our southern system and also why we look to be fighting BL temp issues. THAT has implications with that next piece of energy dropping in at around 90hrs or so. If the models are again doing the same ( chances are high that they are ) then it will probably change the outcome/track of that next juicy southern system coming in out of the sw. Not saying it will but the chances would be much better for that northern energy to pull up that southern system alot quicker. looks like the nam is doing exactly what you're saying here /\......albeit only out to 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 gfs same time frame. differences are pretty stunning. Even if you took a blend slightly still favoring the gfs you'd have a much more northern/western tracking system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Alek was playing with smart money, seasonal trends. Weaker/South/Less QPF in cold sector. We haven't had a single locked in event this year where you could look at it and say, this is happening the only thing to watch is track refinement. In this case, all models regardless of minor strength/track differences, severly dampened the wave as it moved east...we've seen this quite a few times and it has always trended this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The lack of systems with true organized low pressure centers this winter is quite amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The lack of systems with true organized low pressure centers this winter is quite amazing. The top meteorology professors at UW-Madison were discussing this yesterday. It's baffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The lack of systems with true organized low pressure centers this winter is quite amazing. The consistant split flown pattern has not helped or aided much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The lack of systems with true organized low pressure centers this winter is quite amazing. Yeah this is surprising, that being said, we don't want that to turn the corner in spring. Strong low pressures + severe weather season = look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Kind of crazy how almost every storm this winter that showed some promise to start with fizzles out as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Kind of crazy how almost every storm this winter that showed some promise to start with fizzles out as we get closer. Yeah for sure. There have been a few minor last minute surprises for the positive, but for the most part every system seems to slowly **** the bed as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 HRRR says we get some light rain around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 HRRR says we get some light rain around midnight. saw this coming a mile away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 We've had several storms with organized low pressures in the west and they fall apart as they pull out into the plains too this winter. Very odd. Never seen a winter like this before. Looks like a sloppy mix tonight or possibly even dry if the southern trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 saw this coming a mile away heh, like I said, I am embracing my rain for this system. The roads need a nice cleaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 We've had several storms with organized low pressures in the west and they fall apart as they pull out into the plains too this winter. Very odd. Never seen a winter like this before. Looks like a sloppy mix tonight or possibly even dry if the southern trend continues. persistent confluent flow ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 For the record, this was the storm of the century the GEFS were advertising about a 8 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 For the record, this was the storm of the century the GEFS were advertising about a 8 days ago. the GFS has decided to push the pattern chaning blockbust back to 300 hrs or so where it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:09 PM EST WEDNESDAY 15 FEBRUARY 2012. ------------------------------ --------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... FREEZING RAIN WARNING FOR: =NEW= OXFORD - BRANT =NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON =NEW= HALTON HILLS - MILTON =NEW= CALEDON =NEW= STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY =NEW= LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY =NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON =NEW= ORANGEVILLE - GRAND VALLEY - SOUTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY. FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA WILL HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN SOUTHWESTERN REGIONS OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY START AS FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW THEN CHANGE TO RAIN BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN CHANGE TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah for sure. There have been a few minor last minute surprises for the positive, but for the most part every system seems to slowly **** the bed as it gets closer. Actually, and you probably wont hear many admit it, but most of our 1"+ snow events this season in SE MI have actually overperformed (granted all but one were 1-3" events, the one last Friday being the tops at 3-5"). The only one that underperformed slightly was Jan 21st, all the others met or exceeded expectations (most exceeded). The big PROBLEM with that is we are taking things like getting 2" when you expected 1", and of course Fridays getting 3-5" when you expected 1-2". None of those feel-good stories of getting 8" when you expected 3" or something like that, because as has been mentioned, it has been unbelieveble the lack of a organized significant low pressure systems this winter. Small systems, clippers, sheared out waves, etc have made precip and snow frequent, but nothings been significant. Its not often in a region prone to cutters/hookers you can say winters biggest snowstorm came from a cold front lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A cold rain at 36° is falling now with fog. Looks like some good downpours out towards Cyclone's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The salt is washing away tonight. Quite foggy outside with moderate rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The salt is washing away tonight. Quite foggy outside with moderate rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The salt is washing away tonight. Quite foggy outside with moderate rain falling. Too cheap to pay for a 3 dollar car wash so atleast the rain is taking care of that. Depressing winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Too cheap to pay for a 3 dollar car wash so atleast the rain is taking care of that. Depressing winter I was actually thinking of the roads, but yeah the cars too! lol Yeah it is depressing and boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Picked up 0.27" of rain tonight. Very dense fog out there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not one drop of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I've had about 0.50" of 36° rain tonight! Boring! Quite foggy since the rain moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The first bus ride of the winter for the people of Cincinnati and Columbus and were about to crash like we did last year.. I sit at around 3-4 inches for the winter here in mid February.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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