A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol. Its about 5 of your curly chest pubes from being the same as 0z mine are pretty thick, enjoy your slushy inch, take pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I just hope the far North NAM isn't right. Most times this winter, it has been right on for snow amounts in this area a day before the "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 mine are pretty thick, enjoy your slushy inch, take pics! Pretty much what was expected at best all along - just like mke has been forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 FYP http://www.spc.noaa....&RT=09&max== ouch Cool site - had not seen that prior to your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z nam clown map anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 IWX... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 PCPN TYPE IS STILL SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THIS EVENT ASTHERMAL PROFILES ALOFT SUPPORT LARGE DENDRITE FORMATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 3C TO 5C WARM NOSE IN THE 900 TO 950MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD MELT MOST PCPN. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG LIFT AND DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING...HAVE CONCERNS THAT WET SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST WITH MORE COOLING THAN IS BEING ADVERTISED BY ANY MODEL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BEYOND NEAR TERM PERIODS. NEIGHBORS TO WEST AND NORTH IN DEEPER COLD AIR REMAIN ALL RAIN SO WILL HOLD STEADY FOR NOW BUT WATCH THERMAL FIELDS CLOSELY NEXT FEW RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18Z Nam "follows" the Euro by being wetter. Nice... Also nice little excerpt from South Bend AFD.. PCPN TYPE IS STILL SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THIS EVENT AS THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT SUPPORT LARGE DENDRITE FORMATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 3C TO 5C WARM NOSE IN THE 900 TO 950MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD MELT MOST PCPN. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG LIFT AND DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING...HAVE CONCERNS THAT WET SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST WITH MORE COOLING THAN IS BEING ADVERTISED BY ANY MODEL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BEYOND NEAR TERM PERIODS. NEIGHBORS TO WEST AND NORTH IN DEEPER COLD AIR REMAIN ALL RAIN SO WILL HOLD STEADY FOR NOW BUT WATCH THERMAL FIELDS CLOSELY NEXT FEW RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18Z Nam "follows" the Euro. Nice... Also nice little excerpt from South Bend AFD.. That looks like more precip. in the "cool sector" of the "event"....here's hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 And the GFS comes in slightly wetter as well on the northern fringes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 MKE puts out first snowfall map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 MKE puts out first snowfall map! lol...I've seen them put out a number of "1 inch" snow maps this winter. So sad that's what it's become this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well, might as well be in the sweet spot even if it's weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like the NAM is a little bit colder on the northern edge. 850mb temperatures down from 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This Winter is so sad that the Nam decided to cry all over the great lakes region with this storm. It feels the pain too. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This Winter is so sad that the Nam decided to cry all over the great lakes region with this storm. It feels the pain too. haha Lol, good one! Seems like the northern stream energy gets more involved this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Lol, good one! Seems like the northern stream energy gets more involved this run. Yes it is quite a bit stronger but again lets see if the other 0z model guidance has a similar solution. I like the storm after this. If you look at 84 hours (500mb vort maps) you'd notice a cut off with decent vort energy across the S/W with another decent energy wave across the PNW and a weak trough across the region reminisce of the last storm. Whether that can possibly become the first decent negatively tilted storm of the year remains unknown but IMO that has alot of potential. Lets hope it can phase with that energy wave across the PNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 low level temps still too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yes it is quite a bit stronger but again lets see if the other 0z model guidance has a similar solution. I like the storm after this. If you look at 84 hours (500mb vort maps) you'd notice a cut off with decent vort energy across the S/W with another decent energy wave across the PNW and a weak trough across the region reminisce of the last storm. Whether that can possibly become the first decent negatively tilted storm of the year remains unknown but IMO that has alot of potential. Lets hope it can phase with that energy wave across the PNW. Yeah, I see what you mean @ 84hours. That would likely be a Monday event about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, I see what you mean @ 84hours. That would likely be a Monday event about. DGEX shows a nice hit from that. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yes it is quite a bit stronger but again lets see if the other 0z model guidance has a similar solution. I like the storm after this. If you look at 84 hours (500mb vort maps) you'd notice a cut off with decent vort energy across the S/W with another decent energy wave across the PNW and a weak trough across the region reminisce of the last storm. Whether that can possibly become the first decent negatively tilted storm of the year remains unknown but IMO that has alot of potential. Lets hope it can phase with that energy wave across the PNW. Yeah, NAM would be interesting beyond 84 hours. It slows down the southern stream much more so than other OP models, which might give it a chance to phase with that s/w over BC. 18z GEFS yesterday also had a similar look. Haven't seen any other model indicate the same potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GFS weaker and slower than NAM. Models still have some problems to work on in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You win this round Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 A nice wash all the salt and grime off the roads event for eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GEM trended south. Any further south, I'll be high and dry here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You win this round Alek. Alek was playing with smart money, seasonal trends. Weaker/South/Less QPF in cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i was going to do an ECMWF QPF list since we're inside 24hrs, but it's not even worth it...just look at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i was going to do an ECMWF QPF list since we're inside 24hrs, but it's not even worth it...just look at the GFS. Barring a miracle, looks like a substantial failure for the Euro at < 48 hours. Don't see that very often, but I guess it being out on a limb was a sign to take its prior solution with extreme caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i was going to do an ECMWF QPF list since we're inside 24hrs, but it's not even worth it...just look at the GFS. Looks like next to nothing for precip here. Almost completely dry in Wisc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Been busy all day, but wanted to show this 6hr snow total from the 00z NAM although temps still seem too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Been busy all day, but wanted to show this 6hr snow total from the 00z NAM although temps still seem too warm. Haha, 00Z Euro has around 0.08 QPF, a drastic cut from the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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