SpartyOn Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 98 was freakish. It was a true perpetual Fall. Gotta give el niño props. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 MKE morning AFD.. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUMMAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. MODELS NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT YET ON PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THERMAL PROFILE. GFS BRINGS A WEAKENED AREA OF QPF ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN PRECIP CORRIDOR MUCH FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE 850 BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER JET CORE. NAM MUCH THE SAME. MEANWHILE THE GEMNH AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A MORE IMPRESSIVE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF SURFACE TRACK IS PRETTY PRIME LOOKING WITH A QUICKER CHANGEOVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE GEMNH TRACK IS INTO EXTREME NE IL WHICH FAVORS THE NW CWA FOR THE STEADIER SNOW BAND WITH A SLOWER CHANGEOVER IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THE FAVORABLE LOW TRACK WITH SRN WI MORE IN LINE FOR A DECENT SNOWFALL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FAVORABLE TRACK AND MAINTAINING A COLDER PROFILE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO THERE WOULD NOT BE AS MUCH WARM AIR TO OVERCOME. THERMAL PROFILE IS QUITE WORRISOME. IF ECMWF IS DEAD ON WITH TRACK AND PROFILE...THERE/S POTENTIALLY ENOUGH LIQUID TO WARRANT AN EVENTUAL WATCH/WARNING SCENARIO IN SRN WI...ANY OTHER SOLUTION AND HEADLINE CONFIDENCE BECOMES MUDDIED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 MKE morning AFD.. Watching the shorter range hi-res models like the NMM and ARW are going to be pivotal. If they pick up a stronger baroclinic zone with a decent colder profile, then there might be something to that Euro solution. When the Euro's on its own within 60 hours, I'm just not sure I feel very confident in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol @ MKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This whole winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This whole winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol @ MKE 7 2 offsuit.... All in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol @ MKE A little jealously, eh? No, right now I'm thinking an inch or two of backside snow for here, which is what the new 12z GFS seems to indicate. Someone in S Wisconsin away from the lake may get a tad more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looks like the 12z GEM is still on the northern side of the rest of the tracks. Looks like the potential for a southern WI snow back into the eastern 1/2 of IA snow is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looks like the 12z GEM is still on the northern side of the rest of the tracks. Looks like the potential for a southern WI snow back into the eastern 1/2 of IA snow is there. Do you have images by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 A little jealously, eh? No, right now I'm thinking an inch or two of backside snow for here, which is what the new 12z GFS seems to indicate. Someone in S Wisconsin away from the lake may get a tad more. this is a non-event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 this is a non-event For Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 For the Midwest. FYP http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/eplumes/index.php?PRM=3hrly-SNO&NNC=&SID=MKE&INC=ALL&RT=09&max=&min= ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Do you have images by chance? from: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 FYP http://www.spc.noaa....&RT=09&max== ouch THE ECMWF SURFACE TRACK IS PRETTY PRIME LOOKING WITH A QUICKER CHANGEOVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE GEMNH TRACK IS INTO EXTREME NE IL WHICH FAVORS THE NW CWA FOR THE STEADIER SNOW BAND WITH A SLOWER CHANGEOVER IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THE FAVORABLE LOW TRACK WITH SRN WI MORE IN LINE FOR A DECENT SNOWFALL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FAVORABLE TRACK AND MAINTAINING A COLDER PROFILE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO THERE WOULD NOT BE AS MUCH WARM AIR TO OVERCOME. THERMAL PROFILE IS QUITE WORRISOME. IF ECMWF IS DEAD ON WITH TRACK AND PROFILE...THERE/S POTENTIALLY ENOUGH LIQUID TO WARRANT AN EVENTUAL WATCH/WARNING SCENARIO IN SRN WI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 THE ECMWF SURFACE TRACK IS PRETTY PRIME LOOKING WITH A QUICKER CHANGEOVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE GEMNH TRACK IS INTO EXTREME NE IL WHICH FAVORS THE NW CWA FOR THE STEADIER SNOW BAND WITH A SLOWER CHANGEOVER IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THE FAVORABLE LOW TRACK WITH SRN WI MORE IN LINE FOR A DECENT SNOWFALL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FAVORABLE TRACK AND MAINTAINING A COLDER PROFILE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO THERE WOULD NOT BE AS MUCH WARM AIR TO OVERCOME. THERMAL PROFILE IS QUITE WORRISOME. IF ECMWF IS DEAD ON WITH TRACK AND PROFILE...THERE/S POTENTIALLY ENOUGH LIQUID TO WARRANT AN EVENTUAL WATCH/WARNING SCENARIO IN SRN WI... which is why I lol'd @ MKE, taking the entire model spread under 38 hours out, and you get less than an inch for MKE. Non-Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 THE ECMWF SURFACE TRACK IS PRETTY PRIME LOOKING WITH A QUICKER CHANGEOVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE GEMNH TRACK IS INTO EXTREME NE IL WHICH FAVORS THE NW CWA FOR THE STEADIER SNOW BAND WITH A SLOWER CHANGEOVER IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THE FAVORABLE LOW TRACK WITH SRN WI MORE IN LINE FOR A DECENT SNOWFALL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FAVORABLE TRACK AND MAINTAINING A COLDER PROFILE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO THERE WOULD NOT BE AS MUCH WARM AIR TO OVERCOME. THERMAL PROFILE IS QUITE WORRISOME. IF ECMWF IS DEAD ON WITH TRACK AND PROFILE...THERE/S POTENTIALLY ENOUGH LIQUID TO WARRANT AN EVENTUAL WATCH/WARNING SCENARIO IN SRN WI... Not a good sign when a model is by itself but I'd probably rather have the Euro by itself than anything else. I've seen it win in some of those situations...conversely I've also seen it fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 not a single one of these looks anything like a winter storm for the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 which is why I lol'd @ MKE, taking the entire model spread under 38 hours out, and you get less than an inch for MKE. Non-Event. The model spread you posted was just ensemble WRF style models, no ECMWF or GFS. 12z GFS improved, whatever the 12z ECMWF does is key. If it continues to be persistent and the GFS is trending towards it, that's a strong signal that this could be an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The model spread you posted was just ensemble WRF style models, no ECMWF or GFS. 12z GFS improved, whatever the 12z ECMWF does is key. If it continues to be persistent and the GFS is trending towards it, that's a strong signal that this could be an event. the GFS didn't trend towards crap, this is a non-event that might drop 2 sloppy inches in a think stripe at best. The subtitle of first legit widespread snow of the season is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 not a single one of these looks anything like a winter storm for the midwest P004 anyone? Given this will likely be at night, that could still be an advisory event; certainly I agree there's basically no chance of a warning event for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 P004 anyone? Given this will likely be at night, that could still be an advisory event; certainly I agree there's basically no chance of a warning event for anyone. Or even 006 or 009. Although P004 is the best for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 the GFS didn't trend towards crap, this is a non-event that might drop 2 sloppy inches in a think stripe at best. The subtitle of first legit widespread snow of the season is ridiculous. Hey, I'll take anything I can get. If I get 2" of heavy wet snow, I'll take it and run this winter. Gets us close if not right to the 20" mark if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Kiss of death: HM going with 3-6" for the SE third or half of Wisconsin and 6-12" for parts of extreme N Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z euro following seasonal trends, south, weaker, less cold sector qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Kiss of death: HM going with 3-6" for the SE third or half of Wisconsin and 6-12" for parts of extreme N Lower Michigan. People still follow him??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z euro following seasonal trends, south, weaker, less cold sector qpf. Not by a ton though. So the question is whether it will continue trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hey, I'll take anything I can get. If I get 2" of heavy wet snow, I'll take it and run this winter. Gets us close if not right to the 20" mark if that happens. lol...I got a little excited earlier in the week when local meteorologists said "we could get up to 4 inches" for the Thursday event...I thought that sounded like a lot of snow....for this winter, it is! Besides 1 surprise lake effect event, I have yet to get more than 3 inches (if that) from any "storm" this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z euro following seasonal trends, south, weaker, less cold sector qpf. lol. Its about 5 of your curly chest pubes from being the same as 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 EURO shows a 1-4" band of snow from Davenport to Alpena about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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