wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 at first glance the 12z Euro is a warning criteria event for DVN/cycloneville but the boundary layer is too warm. Much will probably depend on what time of day the storm comes through and if there is any dynamic cooling. If it's at night and there's dynamic cooling, I'm guessing a surface temp of 1 or 2C can be overcome if the 850s are below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Northern lower looking good on the Euro...0.5-0.6 QPF range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Euro is further south..maybe a trend?...Chicago looks good at hr 72>? Boundary layers are warm, but the Low does track Chicago-Lower Michigan- then N/E.. It looked to be more like south of DVN-N Indiana (maybe S Bend?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It looked to be more like south of DVN-N Indiana (maybe S Bend?). Track is SE Kansas to South Bend to Owen Sound, ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 euro with pretty close to a text book perfect laf to se mi cutter snow storm for here. to bad its the winter of 2011/12 - and it will be something else a good bit different at 0z anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 lol @ the NAM already begining the inevitable trend towards the same seasonal crap we've been seeing since October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nice And as Skilling always says 50-100 miles north of the H5 Low is usually where the best snows are.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z nam looks really good! LOLI think this is the trend.. the low will end up further S/E..Maybe we we get lucky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The afternoon AFD at IND says we're done. Not unexpected given the models the past few days and the trend of this winter in general. LATER IN THE WEEK...LOW LEVEL TEMP/THICKNESSES HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER...AND NOW APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP FALLING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Anyone know what the 12z GFS ensembles look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nice And as Skilling always says 50-100 miles north of the H5 Low is usually where the best snows are. marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 After reading APX's AFD, 18Z runs depict a major screw-over for therm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Quad Cities nws thinks this system could end up even farther south than today's model runs. If so, this will be a complete miss for CR through Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Quad Cities nws thinks this system could end up even farther south than today's model runs. If so, this will be a complete miss for CR through Wisconsin. Yeah, I'm just about ready to expect a dry forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday; maybe a few flurries, if low level temps cooperate. Of course, this is hopefully wrong, and perhaps just a knee-jerk reaction to the usually erratic 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Quad Cities nws thinks this system could end up even farther south than today's model runs. If so, this will be a complete miss for CR through Wisconsin. that has been the trend all winter and not only will it trend south, cold sector precip will fade as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The afternoon AFD at IND says we're done. Not unexpected given the models the past few days and the trend of this winter in general. Not sure we ever really had a chance since this came into "reliable" model range. Only question is how cold the rain will be and how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Still looks like mainly a rain event for the QCA. May get a little snow at the tail-end, but not expecting much from this system. Pretty typical for this season. The more significant storm systems have had a tendency to be rain makers in this area. Still agree with this from yesterday. As many others have already mentioned boundary layer temps are just too warm through much of the deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 1-2". Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Im at WGN to talk Skilling down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Im at WGN to talk Skilling down. From what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 From what? He is kinda liking the snow threat with this and talking up the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 He is kinda liking the snow threat with this and talking up the GEM. He is a bit of a snow weenie (in a good way, giving it its due attention) at heart from my limited knowledge. That being said, perhaps he has a point, although the GEM hasn't exactly been snow friendly through most of its runs for this storm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 He is kinda liking the snow threat with this and talking up the GEM. you need to set him straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Maybe Tom Skilling will be right! At this point we need to hope for some dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 He is kinda liking the snow threat with this and talking up the GEM. Well the track of the 12z GGEM is fine. It's the lack of cold enough air that's sorely lacking. Alas, he's the degreed meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm hoping for Wisconsin to steal this one, could happen at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I certainly wouldn't write off the upcoming system Wed-Thu. That is one of those systems that can throw some surprises. If some of the model depictions of qpf are correct and we get a surprise bit of cooling in the boundary layer and a good track at 500/850mb on the system it can certainly snow like crazy somewhere. I think this system does, in deed, have a few surprises up its sleeve. I am not gonna give up on this one. We gotta get one of these to pull through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 0z GFS sped the timing up enough to start the precip as snow Wed. night for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah, the lack of phasing is killing this one for Wisconsin and Iowa. A decent warm front and weak cold front behind it. A nice representation of this winter. Yeah, it's really too bad. The new RGEM continues to show a boiling BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 EGH.....EW.....UGH....This system is starting to look like S$%T.....Moral of this winter..NEXT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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