Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[earthlight]

Also, check out the energy diving due south through the Plains at 108 hr. Nice signal.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/f108.gif

[supermeh]

12z GFS ensemble individuals:

[Isotherm]

OK - I'll say what's on everyone's mind right now. This is exactly where we want it at this stage in the game, 5 days in advance. At the veyr least we can be thankful we're not tracking a storm that's progged to cut inland or through the Lakes, as that would have an extremely low chance of trending SE given it's a La Nina year. The fact that the SE ridge has been underforecast all winter is somewhat comforting given the current placement of the storm; additionally, I'd say a large chunk of our "good" ones, started off as NC/VA hits 4-5 days out in time.

This is a bone of hope on Valetine's Day.

Now the more negative side of things --

1) The lack of storng blocking does hurt our chances for significant nern/sern stream interaction and phasing. It can be done, but the less than stellar pattern in both oceans could very well lead to a less than stellar solution for us

2) The short wave hitting the west coast and deamplifying the ridge immediately to its east is obviously an important aspect in this forecast, and needs to be watched. I have hope that it can be sampled better since we're far out in time, but there's also a possibility that current modelling is correct in the idea of an out to sea storm.

So all in all - work needs to be done, but I have cautious optimism with this one

[pazzo83]

Also, there isn't any real cold air on our side of the globe. Anywhere.

Sub zero temps are WAY up in Canada right now.

[Dsnowx53]

The GGEM drives the Pacific energy so far south that it allows the ridge axis to build again near the Rockies.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/f120.gif

Having it become so meridional also helps to slow the flow down in general, thus the ridge axis is more amplified AND further west. I don't think that evolution is that far fetched. There is a decent jet streak off the PAC coast, but I wouldn't say it's a roaring one.

[earthlight]

The Euro looks pretty horrible so far compared to last nights run. There is a poorly timed trough swinging through the Great Lakes right as our storm was attempting to amplify.

[earthlight]

This run gets the northern stream involved too...phasing at 114...but the trough over the Lakes won't let it come up the coast.

[Dsnowx53]

The trough in the west on this run is more broad and progressive than 0z, which helps to swing things eastward.

[earthlight]

GEFS received a pretty big upgrade today. Began with the 12z run.

More info:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-47gefs_reincrease_aab.htm

[Dsnowx53]

GEFS received a pretty big upgrade today. Began with the 12z run.

More info:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-47gefs_reincrease_aab.htm

I didnt realize they updated the physics scheme on the OP GFS as well. Pretty cool.

[WeatherFox]

This run gets the northern stream involved too...phasing at 114...but the trough over the Lakes won't let it come up the coast.

Lets save this map and compare to future ones to see if we trend in the right direction for NY snow lovers.

[ag3]

Euro ensemble mean is well north of the operational. The mean brings moderate precip into NYC.

[MJO812]

Euro ensemble mean is well north of the operational. The mean brings moderate precip into NYC.

It's not that far off from something bigger

[tmagan]

UKIE through hour 144 off the French site:

http://www.meteociel...h=144&archive=0

Here is a better site for the UKMET:

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na〈=en

[atownwxwatcher]

0.25" -- goes as far north as the Pennsylvania Maryland border.

That is from the ECM 12 Z means

Also the 12 Z means is SE of last nights 00z means...

[MJO812]

0.25" -- goes as far north as the Pennsylvania Maryland border.

That is from the ECM 12 Z means

Also the 12 Z means is SE of last nights 00z means...

Moderate precip gets up to NYC. It just barely gets up to there. Much further north than the op run but a little bit south of last night's mean.

[WeatherFox]

Voice of reason says to wait until two days before this event before making a forecast. But I understand your passion so proceed as normal.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Voice of reason says to wait until two days before this event before making a forecast. But I understand your passion so proceed as normal.

Yeah I agree, it's only Tuesday.

[blizzardof09]

Voice of reason says to wait until two days before this event before making a forecast. But I understand your passion so proceed as normal.

We all know this storms track is gonna change many more times till its actually on the east coast. We still got like 5 days till this storm if not more its gonna change again.

[Snow_Miser]

:lol:

The DGEX gives our area a moderate to heavy snowstorm.

Wow is that a lot of snow.

[jm1220]

:lol:

The DGEX gives our area a moderate to heavy snowstorm.

http://www.meteo.psu...ST_18z/f144.gif

From not one flake north of Cape May to rain as far north as Atlantic City in one run. Nice!!

[Snow_Miser]

From not one flake north of Cape May to rain as far north as Atlantic City in one run. Nice!!

I don't want to derail the legitimacy of this thread by discussing one run of the DGEX verbatim, but it shows VERY heavy precipitation, and since 850 mb temperatures are cold enough, and surface temperatures and thicknesses are marginal there, I'm guessing it's probably snow in Atlantic City. Probably rain in Cape May though.

[Guest Patrick]

Somewhat troubling (as troubling as you can be from this far out on the DGEX, no less) is the tighter gradient on the north end of things...

:lol:

The DGEX gives our area a moderate to heavy snowstorm.

Wow is that a lot of snow.

[Snow_Miser]

Through hour 81 of the 18z GFS, the northern stream is digging more than it was in 12z. Not sure if it will make a difference for the outcome of the storm yet or not.

[supermeh]

Talk about drastic differences in one run of the GFS. At 93 hours there is a lot more northern stream interaction with the southern vort.

[Kaner587]

Through hour 81 of the 18z GFS, the northern stream is digging more than it was in 12z. Not sure if it will make a difference for the outcome of the storm yet or not.

I hate speculating before the model gets out into the timeframe but this is much more amped then 12z....at 93 low coming ashore just west or new orleans

[Kaner587]

I hate speculating before the model gets out into the timeframe but this is much more amped then 12z....at 93 1008mb low coming ashore just west or new orleans. Phasing looks like it starts occurring at that timeframe.

[SnowGoose69]

Somewhat troubling (as troubling as you can be from this far out on the DGEX, no less) is the tighter gradient on the north end of things...

That DGEX run is giving me flashbacks...

[Snow_Miser]

Talk about drastic differences in one run of the GFS. At 93 hours there is a lot more northern stream interaction with the southern vort.

Should be very interesting to see what the GFS does after this.

However, this further goes to show you that one solution is DEFINITELY NOT set in stone.

[SnowGoose69]

The 18Z GFS looks like its gonna be congrats Buffalo unless it makes a hard right as well