Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[tornadojay]

the current pattern also has a lot of intracacies. There are a ton of unique shortwaves and subtleties in the pattern that have huge effects downstream if they are even modeled slightly incorrect.

[Dsnowx53]

the current pattern also has a lot of intracacies. There are a ton of unique shortwaves and subtleties in the pattern that have huge effects downstream if they are even modeled slightly incorrect.

Probably why there is even more ensemble spread than usual, even for day 5-6.

[tornadojay]

Probably why there is even more ensemble spread than usual, even for day 5-6.

yea.. i mean, just look at the forecasted 500 mb pattern on the GFS for the first 36 hours. It is an utter mess of a pattern.

[bluewave]

the current pattern also has a lot of intracacies. There are a ton of unique shortwaves and subtleties in the pattern that have huge effects downstream if they are even modeled slightly incorrect.

Yeah, too much has to go right under such a busy looking map.

[Dsnowx53]

yea.. i mean, just look at the forecasted 500 mb pattern on the GFS for the first 36 hours. It is an utter mess of a pattern.

Yeah, there are so many shortwaves with so little space between them - model mayhem. I suppose in some ways that's good because it means it's certainly not impossible we could find a way to get a phase - perhaps even with a shortwave that's not currently modeled right now since this pattern clearly supports active shortwaves. That being said, the mess out west really bothers me. I don't want to solely rely on a phase in a winter where timing a phase has been difficult.

[Chris L]

A little less confluence and that was a top 5 KU. We had a beautiful moisture influx coming over the top of a dome of arctic air.

I always call that event PDII Jr. Look at NARR -- you can see it best there.

John, it was going to smoke PD II rather easily, it was more like January '96, sfc low, dynamics were much stronger in 2010 than 2003. If I recall, '10 bombed to 986 mb, 03 was in the 1000's mb. Some of the totals exceeded PD amounts quickly...

The airmass in 2010 was not all that cold compared to '03, and even a bit more moisture in 2010 was seen on the models than in 2003, for some locations.

[Edge Weather]

The low down in the Gulf looks much more impressive on this run at 105 hrs. than on the previous run at the same time.

[Dsnowx53]

This run is ejecting the southern stream energy faster, so we won't have the worst case scenario of the northern stream running way ahead of the southern stream and torching us.

[Edge Weather]

1008mb over the Florida panhandle at 114 hrs. Looks good. Don't know how far up it will be able to come though.

[earthlight]

I guess you can say this run is an improvement, but the GFS still has a terrible upper air set up for most interests on the east coast.

[Edge Weather]

Well, it is not going to make it far enough up the coast, but this run is WAY better than the previous run.

[Dsnowx53]

I guess you can say this run is an improvement, but the GFS still has a terrible upper air set up for most interests on the east coast.

We weren't close to a phase. But ejecting the southern stream energy out quicker is a key, and given how progressive we are out west, I don't see why it wouldn't eject quicker. We need a phase euro style, but the GFS doesn't have nearly the northern stream activity that the euro does.

[Zir0b]

Well, it is not going to make it far enough up the coast, but this run is WAY better than the previous run.

This run is about 400 miles away from giving NYC flurries, not sure how its "way better"

[jm1220]

John, it was going to smoke PD II rather easily, it was more like January '96, sfc low, dynamics were much stronger in 2010 than 2003. If I recall, '10 bombed to 986 mb, 03 was in the 1000's mb. Some of the totals exceeded PD amounts quickly...

The airmass in 2010 was not all that cold compared to '03, and even a bit more moisture in 2010 was seen on the models than in 2003, for some locations.

That was such an incredibly hard storm to watch. You could pretty much go for a swim off the south shore and go out half a mile, and double your snow. That northernmost band which gave Philly over 20" sat literally just offshore for hours.

[mattinpa]

This run is about 400 miles away from giving NYC flurries, not sure how its "way better"

06z GFS didn't even have an organized storm. GFS shifting the precip to almost DE almost is definitely a big shift. Still can't take OTS off the table, and the GFS still needs some things improved to get big snow - but if the other models look better than I think the GFS is catching on.

[Sundog]

That was such an incredibly hard storm to watch. You could pretty much go for a swim off the south shore and go out half a mile, and double your snow. That northernmost band which gave Philly over 20" sat literally just offshore for hours.

Dude 3 inches of snow in Breezy Point, NY and 15 inches on the other side of NY Harbor a few miles from the GSP. Just disgusting.

[CooL]

This run is about 400 miles away from giving NYC flurries, not sure how its "way better"

he' just looking at surface maps. Upper air on the gfs still remains very disjointed as the northern stream just flattens out through the lakes while the euro drives it southward through the plains.

[jm1220]

Dude 3 inches of snow in Breezy Point, NY and 15 inches on the other side of NY Harbor a few miles from the GSP. Just disgusting.

I had abut 2" of pure fluff that blew away later on that day. You could look south all that morning and see dark clouds from the mega snow band, to the north it was struggling to stay even thin overcast. Disgusting is right.

[WeatherX]

Differences between the GFS and UKM at 72 hours are pretty obvious in the Midwest FWIW

[ag3]

Looking at the awful French site graphics for the UKIE, I see not storm or a very weak one way offshore.

Unless something happened in between hours 120-144.

[Zir0b]

hmm looking at the day 3 map of the UKIE, it looked promising, unless the energy in the southwest was left behind

[ag3]

hmm looking at the day 3 map of the UKIE, it looked promising, unless the energy in the southwest was left behind

UKIE through hour 144 off the French site:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=144&archive=0

[PB GFI]

The one thing these gradient storms had in common was that they attacked cold air masses that were in place .

You are asking alot from this pattern to switch gears ,have a system deepen aloft in just the right spot and run it into marginal air . Mayb a new air mass appears on the models as we get closer , but as it is, we would have most likely have to depend on dynamic cooling

and thats a lot to ask in this garbage pattern .Im just not in love with the set up infront of it , so thats my 1 st hesitation , regardless of what

the models depict . good or bad .

[Brian5671]

The one thing these gradient storms had in common was that they attacked cold air masses that were in place .

You are asking alot from this pattern to switch gears ,have a system deepen aloft in just the right spot and run it into marginal air . Mayb a new air mass appears on the models as we get closer , but as it is, we would have most likely have to depend on dynamic cooling

and thats a lot to ask in this garbage pattern .Im just not in love with the set up infront of it , so thats my 1 st hesitation , regardless of what

the models depict . good or bad .

strongly agree!!!

[bluewave]

The one thing these gradient storms had in common was that they attacked cold air masses that were in place .

You are asking alot from this pattern to switch gears ,have a system deepen aloft in just the right spot and run it into marginal air . Mayb a new air mass appears on the models as we get closer , but as it is, we would have most likely have to depend on dynamic cooling

and thats a lot to ask in this garbage pattern .Im just not in love with the set up infront of it , so thats my 1 st hesitation , regardless of what

the models depict . good or bad .

The lack of a solid block to force the northern stream further south to phase with the southern stream

is really hurting us. Also notice that kicker coming into the west where the ridge should be.

great set up

[PB GFI]

The lack of a solid block to force the northern stream further south to phase with the southern stream

is really hurting us. Also notice that kicker coming into the west where the ridge should be.

great set up

Im prob just gunshy after last weekend . That last piece of western energy is the 500 lb gorilla here , theres always 1 variable in our equation thats either pans out or blow us up .

Im just gona wait another 2 days or so and i thnk that western piece gets sorted , I know it`s a punt ,

but sitting here today - it would just be guessing . and after blowin up last wknd - im short stacked to be all in . .

[earthlight]

The GEFS are pretty bad...they continue to have very little surface reflection and precipitation.

[Dsnowx53]

This is really bad. Lol.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA132.gif

[ag3]

12z ggem is not far away from affecting our area. Partial phase occurs a little too late for us, but its encouraging to see it with a fairly strong storm to our south:

[earthlight]

The GGEM drives the Pacific energy so far south that it allows the ridge axis to build again near the Rockies.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/f120.gif