Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[bluewave]

Yes, the UKMET is concerning.

My guess is that the GFS comes further north and the Euro just a little south for a compromise

MA storm solution.

[NEG NAO]

My guess is that the GFS comes further north and the Euro just a little south for a compromise

MA storm solution.

below the mason/dixon line solution and mainly an inland snow event down there - closer to the coast too warm - actually a week from now places like Richmond - Baltimore and DC might have more snow so far then NYC for the season

[SnowGoose69]

You are right - we have yet to see 2 or more consistent runs in a row - until then...................

Also check out this mornings DGEX the storm is crawling up the coast and only reaches the NC Coast at 168 hours and after that heads due east

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06168.gif

In a very ugly pattern like this and in La Ninas its not unusual to see crazy model volitility. Even last winter we were hard pressed to get 2 Euro runs in a row beyond Day 3 or 4 that were the same on the idea of a storm. Its remarkable how much better the longer range model consistency tends to be in El Nino winters or when there is a relatively stable patttern with blocking. The 95-96 winter was a pretty good example, the forecast models then were nowhere near as good as now yet most events were very well forecast inside 48 hours and many were seen beyond 5 days.

[Sundog]

My guess is that the GFS comes further north and the Euro just a little south for a compromise

MA storm solution.

Let's think about this for a minute. If we've already called it a mid Atlantic snowstorm at 140 hours, do you think the people in the mid Atlantic are jumping for joy that they are the bullseye at a lead time of 7 days?

It's easy to dismiss a storm when we are assuming it won't be hitting us, but the areas that are supposedly going to get hit get no comfort from a compromise of the GFS and Euro when the storm is a full week away.

I'd say there a better chance this thing doesn't produce anything for anyone the way the ridge is rolling east on the UKMET. But that would be fitting for winter of 2011-2012, so par for the course.

[jm1220]

below the mason/dixon line solution and mainly an inland snow event down there - closer to the coast too warm - actually a week from now places like Richmond - Baltimore and DC might have more snow so far then NYC for the season

In a Nina like this, that would just be obscene. The SNE thread would go thermonuclear if that happened.

And yeah, it would absolutely suck for us too. God help us if we had to live through another 2/6/10, again during a NINA.

[NEG NAO]

In a very ugly pattern like this and in La Ninas its not unusual to see crazy model volitility. Even last winter we were hard pressed to get 2 Euro runs in a row beyond Day 3 or 4 that were the same on the idea of a storm. Its remarkable how much better the longer range model consistency tends to be in El Nino winters or when there is a relatively stable patttern with blocking. The 95-96 winter was a pretty good example, the forecast models then were nowhere near as good as now yet most events were very well forecast inside 48 hours and many were seen beyond 5 days.

agree - also - what is your expert opinion about the setup and the chances of this thing being able to phase properly and make it all the way up the coast to the northern mid atlantic at least ?

[SnowGoose69]

agree - also - what is your expert opinion about the setup and the chances of this thing being able to phase properly and make it all the way up the coast to the northern mid atlantic at least ?

If the disturbance in the West is as strong as many models show now this won't even make the northern MA. That disturbance needs to be weaker or delayed to allow more ridging, even if that ridging is more eastward than you might normally want to see it. The 00Z Euro was so odd in that it phased the southern stream wave with some rogue piece of energy that shot SEward out of central Canada. The 06Z GFS did indeed show that same piece of energy but did not phase it. There is almost no way to know this far out if that northern disturbance will exist, much less if the timing will work. Once again, we may need perfect timing, not so much because of the Atlantic this time but because of the Pacific.

[bluewave]

Let's think about this for a minute. If we've already called it a mid Atlantic snowstorm at 140 hours, do you think the people in the mid Atlantic are jumping for joy that they are the bullseye at a lead time of 7 days?

It's easy to dismiss a storm when we are assuming it won't be hitting us, but the areas that are supposedly going to get hit get no comfort from a compromise of the GFS and Euro when the storm is a full week away.

I'd say there a better chance this thing doesn't produce anything for anyone the way the ridge is rolling east on the UKMET. But that would be fitting for winter of 2011-2012, so par for the course.

I think that the storm signal is there for some portions of the East to snow from this.

You''ll notice that we got our storm back in January right after the NAO bounced

off it's lows.

[mahk_webstah]

In a very ugly pattern like this and in La Ninas its not unusual to see crazy model volitility. Even last winter we were hard pressed to get 2 Euro runs in a row beyond Day 3 or 4 that were the same on the idea of a storm. Its remarkable how much better the longer range model consistency tends to be in El Nino winters or when there is a relatively stable patttern with blocking. The 95-96 winter was a pretty good example, the forecast models then were nowhere near as good as now yet most events were very well forecast inside 48 hours and many were seen beyond 5 days.

95-96 was a la nina

[tornadojay]

I think that the storm signal is there for some portions of the East to snow from this.

You''ll notice that we got our storm back in January right after the NAO bounced

off it's lows.

I believe some of our biggest snow storms have come from transitions off of NAO lows.. although this transition might be a little more subtle.

[SnowGoose69]

95-96 was a la nina

It was, but an extremely weak one and there was dual blocking both in the N PAC near AK and in the Atlantic, that made the pattern alot more stable and easier for the models to handle given there was no Pac energy constantly blasting into the West.

[bluewave]

I believe some of our biggest snow storms have come from transitions off of NAO lows.. although this transition might be a little more subtle.

It would probably have been game on for us without that trough knocking down the ridge out west.

[SnowGoose69]

Speaking of model consistency, its amazing how consistent the DGEX has been run to run on this possible event, with the 06Z one this AM its about 6-8 straight runs right now with more or less the same idea on the low

[jm1220]

It would probably have been game on for us without that trough knocking down the ridge out west.

And the last one could have been impressive if the southern stream wasn't so fast and strung the storm out to sea before the northern stream could dive in.

There are always so many if's this winter that destroy storm chances even when conditions are otherwise okay.

[bluewave]

And the last one could have been impressive if the southern stream wasn't so fast and strung the storm out to sea before the northern stream could dive in.

There are always so many if's this winter that destroy storm chances even when conditions are otherwise okay.

The same thing happened last December with the OTS storm before the Boxing Day blizzard. The southern stream got going

to far south and east for us. It goes to show how we eventually cash in with a long duration blocking episode as

compared to weak and transient episodes this winter.

[Weathergun]

The same thing happened last December with the OTS storm before the Boxing Day blizzard. The southern stream got going

to far south and east for us. It goes to show how we eventually cash in with a long duration blocking episode as

compared to weak and transient episodes this winter.

There was a huge low off the West Coast, that messing up the wavelengths, with that OTS storm. It was keeping the West Coast ridge, from being more amplified.

[jm1220]

The same thing happened last December with the OTS storm before the Boxing Day blizzard. The southern stream got going

to far south and east for us. It goes to show how we eventually cash in with a long duration blocking episode as

compared to weak and transient episodes this winter.

Agreed. Blocking is key here. The northern stream was forced to nose dive then due to the massive block to its east, and force a phase that brought us a blizzard. With no block, the northern stream would likely have stayed detached, and 12/26/10 would have been a nonevent.

[blizzardof09]

Its going to be that pacific wave that is gonna be the killer with this storm. It has to slow down its progress and not be so strong. We got time for this to work to our advantage but were really threading the needle here. Hopefully by thursday we'll have a better idea of whats going on.

[PB GFI]

Until NOAA pulls a better sampling of the upper air data this week from the system progged into the west coast in day 5 .

The models will be all over the place .To get your solution gona have to figure out the speed of the west coast weekend system .

Hate looking at model runs with steep gradients , reminds me of Feb 2009

where we got a foot of snow in Colts Neck and I was hunkered down in Brooklyn and we saw a few flakes .

[Chris L]

Until NOAA pulls a better sampling of the upper air data this week from the system progged into the west coast in day 5 .

The models will be all over the place .To get your solution gona have to figure out the speed of the west coast weekend system .

Hate looking at model runs with steep gradients , reminds me of Feb 2009

where we got a foot of snow in Colts Neck and I was hunkered down in Brooklyn and we saw a few flakes .

You mean February 2010?

[PB GFI]

You mean February 2010?

Yes so painful Ive chosen to forget the date

[bluewave]

Until NOAA pulls a better sampling of the upper air data this week from the system progged into the west coast in day 5 .

The models will be all over the place .To get your solution gona have to figure out the speed of the west coast weekend system .

Hate looking at model runs with steep gradients , reminds me of Feb 2009

where we got a foot of snow in Colts Neck and I was hunkered down in Brooklyn and we saw a few flakes .

The other storm to remember from that March was the St. Patrick's Day 09 Euro snowstorm that never was.

There was a big thread back on the old forum about that one that the Euro finally backed off of.

[earthlight]

If modeled relatively accurately, the upper air pattern has the potential for a mid atlantic snowstorm. They can get away with even a light to moderate event if the pacific isn't amplified like crazy.

The northern stream interaction that the Euro shows could make this a moderate to major snowstorm as the amplitude increases tremendously. The Euro obviously also had a very strong southern stream energy -- because the surface low got down to almost 980 hPa without any closed 500mb trough.

That being said -- I dont think we are going to see absolutely nothing out of this. The modeling over Eastern Canada this year has been horrific -- each time a Polar Vortex, or a piece of it, has been modeled to drop over the Northesst and stay there for days (as it is here)... it has not done so. If that modeling bias is real this season, and it comes into play with this storm, we could see some pretty significant jumps northward over the next few days.

Either way this is a big chance for the east coast. Think about it this way -- we've been held to one or two runs the entire game. Ite late in the game now, and we've got two guys on and nobody out.

[earthlight]

You mean February 2010?

A little less confluence and that was a top 5 KU. We had a beautiful moisture influx coming over the top of a dome of arctic air.

I always call that event PDII Jr. Look at NARR -- you can see it best there.

[Brian5671]

A little less confluence and that was a top 5 KU. We had a beautiful moisture influx coming over the top of a dome of arctic air.

I always call that event PDII Jr. Look at NARR -- you can see it best there.

This is what troubles me about the weekend system--even if it comes, there's no arctic air to attack-just stale continental air which is not really that cold. Almost reminds me of a March type setup where it would be a heavy wet slop.

[LocoAko]

Until NOAA pulls a better sampling of the upper air data this week from the system progged into the west coast in day 5 .

The models will be all over the place .To get your solution gona have to figure out the speed of the west coast weekend system .

Hate looking at model runs with steep gradients , reminds me of Feb 2009

where we got a foot of snow in Colts Neck and I was hunkered down in Brooklyn and we saw a few flakes .

Yeah, there's really no data being sampled at all over the Pacific in any capacity......

[earthlight]

Yeah, there's really no data being sampled at all over the Pacific in any capacity......

It is really sparse over some areas, man. Especially over some areas of the N Pacific into parts of Canada -- the infamous boxing day shortwave which came roaring south through the Plains was in a relative raobs "void" for three days.

[Sundog]

Yeah, there's really no data being sampled at all over the Pacific in any capacity......

While there is some data being collected obviously, I think his point is valid in that sampling is poor enough where we really can't know for sure how that Pacific low will transpire as game time approaches. Look at 12/26 for example. The data was sparse over Canada and it screwed up the forecasts, and that's over land, not a vast ocean.

[LocoAko]

It is really sparse over some areas, man. Especially over some areas of the N Pacific into parts of Canada -- the infamous boxing day shortwave which came roaring south through the Plains was in a relative raobs "void" for three days.

Raobs, yes. My point was just that there is an immense amount of satellite data from the Pacific integrated into the models. IIRC, the majority of sounding data ingested into the models is via satellites. To act like the models don't have a clue due to a lack of weather balloons for most cases doesn't seem to be a real concern. I know radiosondes are important and only help, of course, but I don't agree with calling it a "data void".. I am feeling I'm arguing more semantics at this point, though. lol.

[earthlight]

Raobs, yes. My point was just that there is an immense amount of satellite data from the Pacific integrated into the models. IIRC, the majority of sounding data ingested into the models is via satellites. To act like the models don't have a clue due to a lack of weather balloons for most cases doesn't seem to be a real concern. I know radiosondes are important and only help, of course, but I don't agree with calling it a "data void".. I am feeling I'm arguing more semantics at this point, though. lol.

Agree. I don't think it's right to act like they don't have a clue either. But I have seen enough cases of poor sampling...or whatever it might be...from shortwaves/energy in the regions where there are huge spaces between raobs...to believe that there can be a concern for inaccuracies when there are important pieces of the pattern there.