Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[Dsnowx53]

Boxing day actually had somewhat of a rolling ridge. But it was already very amplified to begin with, and it rolled very slowly. The ridge axis was well east of Boise during the phasing - and was near Boise just a day prior. However the huge block allowed the flow to slow down and keep things amplified. Hopefully we can slow things down out west a bit.

[Isotherm]

There have been snow events with troughs or zonal patterns out west, 12/19/95 being one of them but generally you can forget about any sort of mega system without some sort of ridging out there.

Agree. It's difficult to get major amplification downstream w/o a ridge in the West. If that s/w can slow down, a weak ridge would be enough probably for this to turn the corner up the East Coast, given there's precip up to Norfolk as depicted.

[atownwxwatcher]

Ggem looks ots.

As does the UK

[bass28]

Pac collapsed on us tonight,hope its wrong.

[Dsnowx53]

0z GEFS is terrible. Lol

[Storm At Sea]

Pretty classic setup for a decent thump snow for NC and S VA. The trough axis is all wrong for an I-95 hit and the Pacific looks terrible.

[earthlight]

The Euro looks like it's trying to phase in a pretty significant piece of northern stream energy at 108 hr. The Pac and west coast look much worse though with the energy farther east and the ridge more progressive.

[earthlight]

Lol, pretty nice height falls now over the Central Plains into the MS Valley. 1000mb surface low is over Southern Alabama at 120 hrs.

[earthlight]

126 hours phase continues but it's a race against time with de-amplification out west. 1000mb surface low over Central Georgia. Northern stream still working in so it's pretty warm for the Mid Atlantic so far.

[earthlight]

Looks like a high-thickness snowstorm for parts of the Mid Atlantic at 132. Sub 1000mb surface low is Southwest of OBX at that time. Light precip up to Philly.

[bass28]

Euro would be the only model with a storm close to us and the way its done this winter not sure I like that lol

[earthlight]

Boom...MECS at 138. 990 mb surface low east of Ocean City Maryland. Heavy snow in DC and much of the Mid Atlantic away from the coast. Boundary layer not totally perfect but looks like mid 30's.

Light to moderate snow Philly and NYC.

[earthlight]

Surface low drops to the low 980's at 144 as it moves northeast. South of the 40/70 but heavy snow up over DE/Eastern MD/NJ and moderate snow along the edge of CCB from DC to NYC.

[bass28]

Surface low drops to the low 980's at 144 as it moves northeast. South of the 40/70 but heavy snow up over DE/Eastern MD/NJ and moderate snow along the edge of CCB from DC to NYC.

How does the pac differ from the gfs?

[earthlight]

Lol...what a hit for the Central Mid Atlantic this run. The surface low goes nuts off the coast of Ocean City and then slowly moves east from there. Boundary layer temps may be a little warm to start but they're sitting under heavy dynamics...this run is a huge snowstorm for them and a moderate one up here...but a HECS by this winters standards.

[earthlight]

How does the pac differ from the gfs?

It isn't all that dissimilar. It might be a little slower with the big vort coming in.

But the Euro phases in a significant piece of the northern stream which the GFS says does not exist at all. This is the biggest difference. I'd have to believe that if the GFS had the same northern stream phasing, it would have looked at least remotely similar to the Euro.

[earthlight]

[bass28]

Lol it looks like I could go from brooklyn with a mecs to orient point with only a few inches,cutoff looks kinda extreme?

[CooL]

Classic Miller A fresh from the Gulf of Mexico.

The main key is the northern stream that dives in and captures the storm and pulls it up the coast.

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro solution verbatim would cause a few suicides on this board.

[CooL]

The Euro solution verbatim would cause a few suicides on this board.

the track looks alittle like 12/19 2009. SNE gets screwed and anyone NW of NYC misses out on the good stuff. I find it hard to believe we are looking at the final solution anyways

[SnowGoose69]

the track looks alittle like 12/19 2009. SNE gets screwed and anyone NW of NYC misses out on the good stuff. I find it hard to believe we are looking at the final solution anyways

That event was suppressed more due to a problem over S Canada with the strong -NAO. This event would more be suppressed due to the fast nature to the pattern and no ridging out west...those historically have tended to be the better MA and SE U.S. snow events. Both PD 1 and the 2/89 storm were victims of a too progressive pattern to get up the coast.

[tmagan]

00Z KMA Hour 144.

[Ericjcrash]

00Z KMA Hour 144.

Looks good, little north of the EURO.

[NEG NAO]

HPC is going for potential snow event for mid atlantic BUT since I have been around enough of these types of winters here with this type of pattern and the pacific being awful during this type of La Nina = I am favoring notice favoring right now -a mainly central mid atlantic snowstorm with very little precip north of the mason dixon line mainly because the flow is too progressive caused by the awful set up out west and in the pacific which forces this storm more east - north east then ne up the coast - here is what HPC graphics show the storm too far south and east for us

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbgpre.gif

[mattinpa]

HPC is going for potential snow event for mid atlantic BUT since I have been around enough of these types of winters here with this type of pattern and the pacific being awful during this type of La Nina = I am favoring notice favoring right now -a mainly central mid atlantic snowstorm with very little precip north of the mason dixon line mainly because the flow is too progressive caused by the awful set up out west and  in the pacific which forces this storm more east - north east then ne up the coast - here is what HPC graphics show the storm too far south and  east for us

http://www.hpc.ncep....fcst_wbgpre.gif

The Euro is obviously not buying that - hopefully it can have two decent runs in a row. The GFS is just too inconsistent.

[NEG NAO]

The Euro is obviously not buying that - hopefully it can have two decent runs in a row. The GFS is just too inconsistent.

You are right - we have yet to see 2 or more consistent runs in a row - until then...................

Also check out this mornings DGEX the storm is crawling up the coast and only reaches the NC Coast at 168 hours and after that heads due east

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/06zdgex850mbTSLPp06168.gif

[Edge Weather]

The 0z Euro looks very, very, similar to the Euro Control run on Saturday. Only minor differences are in that the low deepened just a bit quicker on the control run on Saturday, bombing over the DelMarva and that the low itself was slightly further northwest, but not that much more at all, but importantly the precipitation shield was much further to the northwest, encompassing our whole area with 2 inches of precip, then heading due east, just as the operational run is doing today. The tracks are amazingly similar. The Control run this morning is actually slightly to the southeast of the operational run giving the southeast mid atlantic a huge snowstorm, possibly as close as south Jersey. Anyway, I guess potential is there.

[bluewave]

Watch for the Euro to take a jog a little south and east over the next few runs.

The Euro is yesterdays UKMET solution and the UKMET has shifted a little

further south at 0z.

UKMET 0Z

UKMET yesterday

[Edge Weather]

Yes, the UKMET is concerning.

Watch for the Euro to take a jog a little south and east over the next few runs.

The Euro is yesterdays UKMET solution and the UKMET has shifted a little

further south at 0z.

UKMET 0Z

UKMET yesterday