Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[Snow_Miser]

p007 on the bottom left hand corner looks like how the ECMWF control run looked that 1234abc was talking about a few days ago.

[Isotherm]

The GEFS loves to get the weenies going, but in this case, we're in uncharted territory as far as tropical forcing is concerned, making this threat much more legit than any we've seen this winter.

[CooL]

It looks as if every single member is more amplified than the op

[Junbug]

Still not believing anything with just one run.

[Isotherm]

Still not believing anything with just one run.

And you shouldn't. But for the first time this winter, what we're seeing is a pattern that has the potential to produce a snow event of more than a couple inches for the East Coast.

[Ericjcrash]

p002 or p007 please, it would single handedly make this go from a terrible winter to a good one. No one would complain anymore and mass suicide watches would be dropped.

[blizzardof09]

Lets not get too excited till we get good sampling of that pacific wave. That is the thorn that in the side right now if it doesnt delay its arrival. We may not know what may transpire till wednesday or thursday. Just making an observation guys. Im excited for the potential tho

[Junbug]

And you shouldn't. But for the first time this winter, what we're seeing is a pattern that has the potential to produce a snow event of more than a couple inches for the East Coast.

I think we have heard that phrase many times this winter. Lets just wait and see. Models suck at handling storm positions even 24-48hrs out.

[earthlight]

The GEFS loves to get the weenies going and i will follow up that statement by getting the weenies going by myself as well with a statement about how this threat is legit.

[Isotherm]

Haven't seen the teddy bear one in awhile.

I could say nothing, but yeah, screw it, I think this one's worth it.

[Isotherm]

A few things to note here w/ the 12z GFS H5 vs 18z GFS H5.

18Z valid SUN morn:

12Z valid same time:

Notice the ridge amplitude east of Boise, more pronounced on the 18z run. Fairly significant differences in the East w/ the handling of the nern stream s/w trough. More backing of mid level heights / ridging on the East coast. It's a step. The northern stream energy is more organized / amplified, allowing a bit more interaction w/ the southern stream

[Edge Weather]

I was just thinking the same thing, lol.

p007 on the bottom left hand corner looks like how the ECMWF control run looked that 1234abc was talking about a few days ago.

[Edge Weather]

I wonder if I can get my warn status removed if this one happens?

I was just thinking the same thing, lol.

[Ericjcrash]

Hopefully 0z runs will be encouraging as well, a few solutions will get the board alive for a while.

[SnoSki14]

I honestly don't think there's too much to get excited over. This "event" is nearly a week away and we've seen a few weenie systems modeled in the 7-10 day range this winter so it's nothing to get terribly excited over.

[Edge Weather]

This is only 6 days away now and it did not even show up until now on most of the models, except of course for the Euro control run on Saturday that I almost got killed for even mentioning.

I honestly don't think there's too much to get excited over. This "event" is nearly a week away and we've seen a few weenie systems modeled in the 7-10 day range this winter so it's nothing to get terribly excited over.

[blizzardof09]

I honestly don't think there's too much to get excited over. This "event" is nearly a week away and we've seen a few weenie systems modeled in the 7-10 day range this winter so it's nothing to get terribly excited over.

i think the proper way to put it is its 7-10 days off as you said but its setup is probably the best we've seen this winter. The storm has a chance to really deliver on the east coast and we wont be able to really get a handle on it until the pacific disturbance is onshore and how it buckles the ridge out west.

[Isotherm]

I honestly don't think there's too much to get excited over. This "event" is nearly a week away and we've seen a few weenie systems modeled in the 7-10 day range this winter so it's nothing to get terribly excited over.

[Edge Weather]

6 out of 12 ensemble members show a big hit as far as I can tell. That is not an easy accomplishment. And this is as we get closer in time to the storm. That is honestly a lot of ensemble members this far out. This is very encouraging.

[CTWeatherFreak]

A few things to note here w/ the 12z GFS H5 vs 18z GFS H5.

18Z valid SUN morn:

12Z valid same time:

Notice the ridge amplitude east of Boise, more pronounced on the 18z run. Fairly significant differences in the East w/ the handling of the nern stream s/w trough. More backing of mid level heights / ridging on the East coast. It's a step. The northern stream energy is more organized / amplified, allowing a bit more interaction w/ the southern stream

Also, we seem to lose the S. Dakota. short wave at 18z.. .

[Isotherm]

Also, we seem to lose the S. Dakota. short wave at 18z.. .

Yes, and that further aids in kicking the storm offshore.

[blizzardof09]

6 out of 12 ensemble members show a big hit as far as I can tell. That is not an easy accomplishment. And this is as we get closer in time to the storm. That is honestly a lot of ensemble members this far out. This is very encouraging.

Absolutely but i really wanna wait till thursday to really get excited about this. I mean this has the potential to really blow up into a big storm if it phases at the right juncture. But 6 in 12 members showing big hits is something good

[SnowGoose69]

The pattern in the Eastern half of the country just prior to the southern shortwave ejecting out of the Gulf is somewhat similar to just before the 2/11/83 event. There is the previous low bombing out over SE Canada and a high pressure area dropping south, in addition to a somewhat zonal look at 500mb from the Mississipii eastward. The problem is the setup out West is not even close, there is no PNA ridge at all, as a result the southern disturbance would be unable to undergo any sort of amplification. In order to save this event we would need that Pac disturbance to be notably weaker than the 00Z GFS shows.

[Isotherm]

For the first time this winter the GFS depicts a conducive environment in the Atlantic for a snowstorm, beautiful 50/50 vortex and height rises nudging up into Greenland. Unfortunately the Pacific looks like garbage, and as a result of the flate ridge in the West, our southern short wave escapes to the southeast. I wouldn't be surprised to see a swing and a miss in this winter, but in the same breath, I feel much more comfortable w/ the current solution than being progged in the bullseye at D 6. A snowstorm for Raleigh at this time frame can easily become a threat further north. A lot to watch over the coming days, and it's nice we've finally got a moisture-laden system to work with thanks to the kick-start from tropical forcing.

[Isotherm]

The pattern in the Eastern half of the country just prior to the southern shortwave ejecting out of the Gulf is somewhat similar to just before the 2/11/83 event. There is the previous low bombing out over SE Canada and a high pressure area dropping south, in addition to a somewhat zonal look at 500mb from the Mississipii eastward. The problem is the setup out West is not even close, there is no PNA ridge at all, as a result the southern disturbance would be unable to undergo any sort of amplification. In order to save this event we would need that Pac disturbance to be notably weaker than the 00Z GFS shows.

Agree, just posted almost the same. Atlantic looks good but a poor Pacific may ruin it. Let's hope for some improvement in future runs.

[SnoSki14]

Agree, just posted almost the same. Atlantic looks good but a poor Pacific may ruin it. Let's hope for some improvement in future runs.

Oh the sweet irony that is this winter. When the Pacific is perfect as it was a week or so ago, the Atlantic was crappy and now the Atlantic will be excellent but the Pacific will be crappy. Well maybe our southern neighbors can benefit from something while we gladly cheer for Spring to explode upon us.

[SnowGoose69]

Agree, just posted almost the same. Atlantic looks good but a poor Pacific may ruin it. Let's hope for some improvement in future runs.

There have been snow events with troughs or zonal patterns out west, 12/19/95 being one of them but generally you can forget about any sort of mega system without some sort of ridging out there.

[Dsnowx53]

We need the trough in the pacific to slow down a bit so that the ridge doesn't roll too far east.

[bass28]

Ggem looks ots.

[Analog96]

There have been snow events with troughs or zonal patterns out west, 12/19/95 being one of them but generally you can forget about any sort of mega system without some sort of ridging out there.

I think anyone on this board would GLADLY sign up for 12/19/95 now.