Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[Snow_Miser]

We can't have that happen or we're never getting a storm -- period.

Agreed, and it probably would be one of our last major shot at getting significant snows, since March would be just around the corner after this storm, and the sun angle would become an increasing problem for any more future significant snows beyond that point in time.

[eduggs]

There's still a chance something pops up with the wave around the 17th.

The 18z NAM trended cooler and shows decent front end interior snow (mostly at elevation) with wet snow mixed into SENY and CT. The GEFS mean is slightly cooler than the operation run and several individual members are far enough south to introduce the possibility of snow at least north of NYC. The Euro is also not impossibly far off and even the Canadian is close enough for keep peaking back.

Most of the modeling moves a primary low into the Lakes region with some kind of secondary development off the mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures are marginal at best but it could be a moderate QPF event. With a slightly stronger downstream trof or slightly less ridging in the SE, this wave should shift a little further south or redevelop a bit faster. That could prevent mid-levels from warming and possibly even drain some cooler surface air from NNE. This is unlikely, but there's not much else to look at this week. ENY and CNE look to have a decent shot.

[Isotherm]

Agreed, and it probably would be one of our last major shot at getting significant snows, since March would be just around the corner after this storm, and the sun angle would become an increasing problem for any more future significant snows beyond that point in time.

Oh boy, you've fallen into the dreaded sun angle trap, there's no helping you out now...

[Snow_Miser]

Oh boy, you've fallen into the dreaded sun angle trap, there's no helping you out now...

There's a reason why snow can't stick to the ground as easily in March than in January, and why temperatures are warmer on average in Spring and Summer than in winter...

[Isotherm]

This is generally the correct idea. But the Pac NW system is really actually de-amplifying the ridge out west. This buckles the whole pattern to the east...the ridge axis near Boise collapses east towards the Plains...the mid level winds start pushing on the trough over the Southeast...the whole nine yards.

We can't have that happen or we're never getting a storm -- period.

Agree, mid level flow is much too progressive as it stands now. Ideally we'd like that ridge to at least hold until the sern s/w reaches the east coast to get some height pumping. That of course largely depends upon the PAC NW s/w not ruining the party by showing up on time, we want it fashionably late (or better yet, don't come to the party at all).

[Isotherm]

There's a reason why snow can't stick to the ground as easily in March than in January, and why temperatures are warmer on average in Spring and Summer than in winter...

It's all about the pattern. Remember April 2003 - snow stuck immediately at 2pm with temps of 32 b/c vv's were strong enough. Late winter snowfalls can be intense if synoptics are favorable.

[MJO812]

DGEX is south

[Snow_Miser]

It's all about the pattern. Remember April 2003 - snow stuck immediately at 2pm with temps of 32 b/c vv's were strong enough. Late winter snowfalls can be intense if synoptics are favorable.

The sun angle plays a role, but the pattern plays a larger role.

And the pattern this year is the worst pattern in a decade. It would need a pretty good pattern to bring snow in April, and the current pattern will not cut it.

[Snow_Miser]

DGEX is south

Looks like precipitation gets about 30 miles more NW than the 6z DGEX got the northern extent of the precipitation shield.

[jm1220]

Looks like precipitation gets about 30 miles more NW than the 6z DGEX got the northern extent of the precipitation shield.

Gets some decent snow up to about Atlantic City. We really need for either the northern stream to strengthen and try a phase, or for the kicker out west to weaken or be slower.

[Snow_Miser]

Gets some decent snow up to about Atlantic City. We really need for either the northern stream to strengthen and try a phase, or for the kicker out west to weaken or be slower.

The next frame after the one metfan posted gets the precipitation more north to perhaps central Ocean County.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/f156.gif

[supermeh]

18z GFS is another step in the right direction.

[MJO812]

18z GFS is another step in the right direction. The northern stream looks better.

[mattinpa]

18z GFS is another step in the right direction.

It gets precip up here with a weak low - would that be snow since it is so light?

[NEG NAO]

18z GFS is another step in the right direction. The northern stream looks better.

looks weird though

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06144.gif

[supermeh]

It gets precip up here with a weak low - would that be snow since it is so light?

Don't even focus on precip. Look at the upper air charts to see trends.

[Snow_Miser]

18z GFS is another step in the right direction. The northern stream looks better.

It looks better, but I couldn't help but notice how the 18z GFS looks now with this storm and how many similarities seem to pop out at me with last weekend's mini snow event.

The low is offshore, and there is a narrow band of precipitation north and west of the low.

[Ericjcrash]

Don't even focus on precip. Look at the upper air charts to see trends.

Yeah, the surface is wacky.

[MJO812]

The end of the week storm trended colder on the Nam and GFS.

[NEG NAO]

The end of the week storm trended colder on the Nam and GFS.

seems to develop a low center east of us and that takes off east northeast and doesn't look like it ends up in the needed 50/50 position

[Isotherm]

The sun angle plays a role, but the pattern plays a larger role.

And the pattern this year is the worst pattern in a decade. It would need a pretty good pattern to bring snow in April, and the current pattern will not cut it.

I agree, but you were initially making it sound like our snow chances were done b/c March is around the corner.

[SnoSki14]

We'll see what happens I guess, I'm def gonna downplay this big time as most people should. The only thing going for us is the MJO to be honest because the PNA and NAO are lacking.

[Snow_Miser]

I started a thread up for the late week wave of precipitation that will be rolling through the area, so discussion should be there, not here:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32668-late-week-storm/

[earthlight]

Lots of agreement here on the 18z GEFS today

[Snow_Miser]

Lots of agreement here on the 18z GEFS today

Agreement about some sort of storm, yes. Agreement about where this storm will be? No.

[SmokeEater]

It gets precip up here with a weak low - would that be snow since it is so light?

No, it's rain.

[Allsnow]

18z gefs mean is a beauty.....has to be some real nice hits in the idv

[Snow_Miser]

18z gefs mean is a beauty.....has to be some real nice hits in the idv

Red flag that the Operational is likely too far S and E with this system:

[Ericjcrash]

Red flag that the Operational is likely too far S and E with this system:

That is gorgeous, big signal too bad its still so far away, can someone post indv. members please.

[earthlight]