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Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

Mikehobbyst

By Mikehobbyst,
in New York City Metro

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
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This event has a chance because for once we're likely going to have some sort of confluence setup thanks to the event at 96 hours bombing out, the models right now could be overdoing the confluence over E Canada given we have virtually no blocking in the w ATL...if thats the case the storm track would be closer to the coast than the GEM shows, the GFS as usual at this range cannot really be trusted. There is no question though that if indeed a phase happens this event is the most probable at this range we've seen all winter to actually happen.

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Jefflaw77

Jefflaw77

Posted
Posted

12z UKMET is getting closer on Sunday http://meteocentre.c...hh2=120&fixhh=1

Another "we'll be able to iron out the details" type of event.. I'm sure somehow when sun/mon comes around this storm will be tucked perfectly on the coast with a super High perfectly positioned to the north ushering in temps in the low to mid teens with a CCB that will rival all CCB's from previous storms.. 18-30" Should fall from Baltimore to Southern NE..

It's going to be a repeat of President's day weekend, 2003, but a more robust storm.. Can't wait.

NOW BACK TO REALITY.........

P.S. I can't f'in believe it's been 9 years since the 2003 event.. I'm getting old!

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
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Please, its been 29 years since 2/83!

Another "we'll be able to iron out the details" type of event.. I'm sure somehow when sun/mon comes around this storm will be tucked perfectly on the coast with a super High perfectly positioned to the north ushering in temps in the low to mid teens with a CCB that will rival all CCB's from previous storms.. 18-30" Should fall from Baltimore to Southern NE..

It's going to be a repeat of President's day weekend, 2003, but a more robust storm.. Can't wait.

NOW BACK TO REALITY.........

P.S. I can't f'in believe it's been 9 years since the 2003 event.. I'm getting old!

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tornadojay

tornadojay

Posted
Posted

Lack of a good PNA definitely hurts here.. All the good ridging is well off the west coast.. way too west of where we want it to be. Too bad the storm out ahead of the one we want moves out quickly.. it is in a good 50/50 spot right at about the time the storm forms off the east coast.. the whole pattern is too progressive though.. everything pushes north and east.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
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The models are continuing the 50/50 and -NAO setup. But the Pacific low crashing into West Coast at 120-144hrs, prevents this from phasing and coming further up the coast.

The model guidance has been trending slightly slower with the Pac feature and slightly more organized with the phasing, which is what piqued my interest to begin with. If these trends continue we could see some cool solutions over the next few days.

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
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The model guidance has been trending slightly slower with the Pac feature and slightly more organized with the phasing, which is what piqued my interest to begin with. If these trends continue we could see some cool solutions over the next few days.

earthlight, you think that the slower pacific feature may actually help the east coast phase?, or just go back to a day late and dollar short solution for us. the flow is still progressive and little too quick for a timed phase off the eastern seaboard idealy. just a question

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
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earthlight, you think that the slower pacific feature may actually help the east coast phase?, or just go back to a day late and dollar short solution for us. the flow is still progressive and little too quick for a timed phase off the eastern seaboard idealy. just a question

I haven't looked and tracked meteorology and synoptic weather patterns as much as John (earthlight) but my understanding is that the PNA ridge in the west is pushing the trough too far east, and the storm just barely misses us.

If the system pushing the PNA ridge east is trending slower, then eventually it won't push the trough east until after the storm passes, which would increase our chances at getting a storm to ride up the east coast.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
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If there were a time frame to produce a storm this winter, this one would be it -- MJO progression into phase 1, which as I mentioned before, this would be the time frame to watch for enhanced storminess in the SE/E US based upon tropical forcing. Additionally, we have a nicely timed, albeit transient, NAO ridge and 50-50 low later this week, holding some marginal (but sufficient) cold air over the Northeast. The phasing of the nern/sern s/w's is obviously key here, otherwise the low will escape to the SE. As others have noted, a more amplified PNA ridge would help our prospects. Furthermore, if we can get the Western s/w to move slower, than heights can pump up a bit more off the SE US coast, forcing more amplification and phasing. Something at least to track over the coming days.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

I haven't looked and tracked meteorology and synoptic weather patterns as much as John (earthlight) but my understanding is that the PNA ridge in the west is pushing the trough too far east, and the storm just barely misses us.

If the system pushing the PNA ridge east is trending slower, then eventually it won't push the trough east until after the storm passes, which would increase our chances at getting a storm to ride up the east coast.

This is generally the correct idea. But the Pac NW system is really actually de-amplifying the ridge out west. This buckles the whole pattern to the east...the ridge axis near Boise collapses east towards the Plains...the mid level winds start pushing on the trough over the Southeast...the whole nine yards.

We can't have that happen or we're never getting a storm -- period.

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