Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[SnowGoose69]

The biggest problem right now with the GFS is the MSLP of the low simply does not match what the model is showing at 500mb, the 18Z GFS at 102 hours shows a 980mb low SSE of LI, I have never seen that without a closed setup at 500mb yet the GFS is open at 500mb. If the 18Z GFS came to fruition at the surface all of NJ, NYC, and W-LI would be snowing at 98-106 hours or so, just look at 4/6/82 and 12/25/02 for proof of that.

[bluewave]

If only the position of the High winds up over New England. Then it can be a source of cold air reinforcement for the coastal storm to the south.

Yeah, we really need this to pass east of ORF to be in business. Anything closer to the coast will turn the winds

ENE and bring in warm air at the coast.

[NEG NAO]

The biggest problem right now with the GFS is the MSLP of the low simply does not match what the model is showing at 500mb, the 18Z GFS at 102 hours shows a 980mb low SSE of LI, I have never seen that without a closed setup at 500mb yet the GFS is open at 500mb. If the 18Z GFS came to fruition at the surface all of NJ, NYC, and W-LI would be snowing at 98-106 hours or so, just look at 4/6/82 and 12/25/02 for proof of that.

I don't think all of NJ would be snowing - would be a mix mainly liquid south and east of central monmouth county in the shore communities and metro NYC would be a very wet snow at best

[SnowGoose69]

p007 would be nice and p006 would be a worst case scenario.

p006 would be just about physically impossible. The only 2 storms I know of which tracked up the Apps were the November 1950 storm and the 3/8/08 storm.

[NorthShoreWx]

On roaring east winds from the ocean, warm air advecting from the SW in the mid levels? That's all rain, except maybe very briefly to start. We either have to get this to occlude MUCH sooner, or force a more east track. Luckily, the GFS is way out on its own here (maybe you could count the UKM as being in support).

You need to move off of that sandbar. LB is too close to Bermuda..

[blizzardof09]

p006 would be just about physically impossible. The only 2 storms I know of which tracked up the Apps were the November 1950 storm and the 3/8/08 storm.

i think in the end theres gonna be a hefty snowstorm from jersey north and the low east of the benchmark. if i were to guess, not a forecast. the 18 gfs run just didnt make sense at all given the pattern before us

[EasternLI]

So, where is the cold air coming from? Seems awfully warm on this side of the world. From the looks of things, a snowstorm here (on the coast) this weekend would be the equivilant of winning powerball. I was in the HIGH 40's today. Not a big fan of seeing that little HP slide off the coast before the storm comes in either (18z GFS).

[uncle W]

one possible analog is from 2/19/1963...3" of wet snow mixed with rain at times with the coldest temperature of only 34 degrees...it was a surprise storm that day...It started as rain with temperatures around 40...I remember the NE winds and watching the rain turn to snow from my 8th grade classroom window...

[SnowGoose69]

So, where is the cold air coming from? Seems awfully warm on this side of the world. From the looks of things, a snowstorm here (on the coast) this weekend would be the equivilant of winning powerball. I was in the HIGH 40's today. Not a big fan of seeing that little HP slide off the coast before the storm comes in either (18z GFS).

We'll be fine if we get any sort of benchmark track or something that scoots Easterly off the Delmarva, 850s would be around -4 to -6C and the DPs on the models are in the lower 20s Sun AM, it wouldn't be 22 degrees but we'd be around 30 degrees and snowing during any sort of decent event. As I said, even the GFS runs would create their own cold air if such a huge bombing low setup occurred and we'd get backlash snows.

[blizzardof09]

We'll be fine if we get any sort of benchmark track or something that scoots Easterly off the Delmarva, 850s would be around -4 to -6C and the DPs on the models are in the lower 20s Sun AM, it wouldn't be 22 degrees but we'd be around 30 degrees and snowing during any sort of decent event. As I said, even the GFS runs would create their own cold air if such a huge bombing low setup occurred and we'd get backlash snows.

when a low really deepens like that it pulls alot of cold air entrained into the system. even coastal areas would get dumped on and as you said may have a bonafide backlash snow ala 12/25/02 the last time i saw thundersnow

[NEG NAO]

when a low really deepens like that it pulls alot of cold air entrained into the system. even coastal areas would get dumped on and as you said may have a bonafide backlash snow ala 12/25/02 the last time i saw thundersnow

Here are the details on the 12/25/2002 event

http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html

[blizzardof09]

Here are the details on the 12/25/2002 event

http://www.njfreeway.../25-Dec-02.html

12/25/02 was the last time i saw such an intense snowfall in a short period of time, had thundersnow, severe winds and almost no visibility. i got like 11 inches in less than 5 hours when that band went through as the storm pulled out. that was the last time i saw a bonafide backlash snow.

[SnowGoose69]

12/25/02 was the last time i saw such an intense snowfall in a short period of time, had thundersnow, severe winds and almost no visibility. i got like 11 inches in less than 5 hours when that band went through as the storm pulled out. that was the last time i saw a bonafide backlash snow.

There have not been many scenarios with a sub 985mb low off NJ from Mid December to Mid March, even 50-75 miles off the coast where its now snowing in NYC, even in marginal scenarios the dynamics in such a setup and when you're sitting in perfect position of the 700 and 850 lows you're going to be getting hit hard.

[blizzardof09]

There have not been many scenarios with a sub 985mb low off NJ from Mid December to Mid March, even 50-75 miles off the coast where its now snowing in NYC, even in marginal scenarios the dynamics in such a setup and when you're sitting in perfect position of the 700 and 850 lows you're going to be getting hit hard.

yea something i dont think ill witness again. maybe this storm but who knows. one thing with this storm its gonna be very powerful and lots of moisture

[Mitchel Volk]

The ECMWF, GEM and NAM extraperlated says out to sea. It is possible the the GFS is right it was right for the Saturday Fizzard, but I will wait and see what tonight's and Thursday's models runs have to say.

[earthlight]

The ECMWF, GEM and NAM extraperlated says out to sea. It is possible the the GFS is right it was right for the Saturday Fizzard, but I will wait and see what tonight's and Thursday's models runs have to say.

The Euro ensembles being more amplified with a few big solutions was pretty big this afternoon. That was a big tip off to me that the GFS may not be completely high as a kite.

I'm not sure tonight will offer much help unless we see a sudden consensus. Even then we'll still be 90 hrs away from the event.

[earthlight]