Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[jm1220]

Looks like the low occludes somewhere near us and (of course) saves New England other than the immediate S Coast and shoreline. But any time a low tracks over DC, it's an unmitigated disaster here.

[Ericjcrash]

It looked like it would be an apps runner and then goes more east but still too north for many. Again, no support yet.

I thought it was going to go thru Allentown.

[Strongbad]

The sfc low is too close toward it, the flow brings in warm air.

Ok, thanks for the explanation. I still see no reason to worry at this point.

[jm1220]

This run is a Pocono-Catskill plastering...

Yup, great run for my old Penn State stomping grounds. 1-2 feet of snow up that way.

[MJO812]

Ok, thanks for the explanation. I still see no reason to worry at this point.

No reason to because none of the other models agree with the GFS.

[Ericjcrash]

Yup, great run for my old Penn State stomping grounds. 1-2 feet of snow up that way.

Yea central and NE PA gets CRUSHED. Whos down for a ski trip to Camelback over 1.5" QPF mainly if not all snow?

[blizzardof09]

No reason to because none of the other models agree with the GFS.

There is model support for this yet so there is no reason for worry at all plus its the 18z gfs. It will be interesting what the nam, 0z gfs and euro show now to clarify this run if you will

[Ericjcrash]

No reason to because none of the other models agree with the GFS.

Problem is that this isn't really that far off now, big difference in models, I mean BIG difference. Forecasting nightmare for now.

[Kaner587]

As bad as the low placement is NYC still gets a serious front end thump followed by light rain/drizzle/dry slot and a couple back end inches

[Snow_Miser]

Good Grief, what a forecasting nightmare.

I'll probably be back in after the 00z runs.

[jm1220]

As bad as the low placement is NYC still gets a serious front end thump followed by light rain/drizzle/dry slot and a couple back end inches

On roaring east winds from the ocean, warm air advecting from the SW in the mid levels? That's all rain, except maybe very briefly to start. We either have to get this to occlude MUCH sooner, or force a more east track. Luckily, the GFS is way out on its own here (maybe you could count the UKM as being in support).

[NaoPos]

No reason to because none of the other models agree with the GFS.

Ukie

[Jefflaw77]

Good Grief, what a forecasting nightmare.

I'll probably be back in after the 00z runs.

Won't we all..

[MJO812]

Ukie

To an extent but it's not as west as the GFS.

[Isotherm]

I think its safe to say this is more or less the most amplified possbility, as depicted on the 18z GFS. Big time phasing with the northern stream. 00z should be interesting to see whether the models begin to congregate on a more middle track or not. We're getting into that D 3-4 time frame where we'd like to see a decent consensus on general track.

[Ericjcrash]

I think its safe to say this is more or less the most amplified possbility, as depicted on the 18z GFS. Big time phasing with the northern stream. 00z should be interesting to see whether the models begin to congregate on a more middle track or not. We're getting into that D 3-4 time frame where we'd like to see a decent consensus on general track.

It really isn't that far off for such a divergence in modelling. Not a good situation if your a forecaster trying to put out a weekend forecast, especially a holiday weekend.

[blizzardof09]

I think its safe to say this is more or less the most amplified possbility, as depicted on the 18z GFS. Big time phasing with the northern stream. 00z should be interesting to see whether the models begin to congregate on a more middle track or not. We're getting into that D 3-4 time frame where we'd like to see a decent consensus on general track.

Thats just it its an extreme solution and we got extreme ots solutions as well. this run shouldnt be taken as gospel as its just another befuddled run. We are getting into that time frame as you said where were gonna get into the run to run consistency and we'll get a general consensus which i think may start tommorow till impact of the storm

[bluewave]

It really isn't that far off for such a divergence in modelling. Not a good situation if your a forecaster trying to put out a weekend forecast, especially a holiday weekend.

I would probably keep the forecast very general at this point until we get some agreement between GFS/Euro.

[Ericjcrash]

I would probably keep the forecast very general at this point until we get some agreement between GFS/Euro.

A simple 40% chance of rain/snow would probably be best at this point. IMO

[MJO812]

[earthlight]

GEFS are really amped up...lots of members showing monster solutions now. A few of them look like the OP...but the spread is still huge.

[earthlight]

[Zelocita Weather]

Mean would look nice, but pretty even split 3 ways between misses to the south, snowstorms, and rainstorms

[Ericjcrash]

p007 would be nice and p006 would be a worst case scenario.

[Snow_Miser]

Mean would look nice, but pretty even split 3 ways between misses to the south, snowstorms, and rainstorms

In other words, the GEFS have no idea what's going to happen.

[jrodd321]

3 misses

5 hits

4 inland

Oh boy, onto 00z.

[Ericjcrash]

In other words, the GEFS have no idea what's going to happen.

Yeah, lets see if they are closer together at 0z.

[NYCSuburbs]

Looking at today's models, I created a map showing the estimated position of the low with most of today's runs (except for the DGEX and 0z UKMET) for 12z Sunday - clearly there's a lot of differences, mostly with the phasing but with the timing as well, as the 12z CMC has the low near New Orleans when the GFS already has it over Virginia. The GFS is interestingly the northernmost solution, with even its southern 6z run still faster and a bit north of the rest of the models. With such a big spread, one set of models will probably trend towards the other, even if it doesn't completely get there. Seeing the GFS by itself isn't encouraging, but there have been times when the GFS didn't have much support and still was close to the correct solution. To stay on the safe side for now it would be easier to go with an in between solution along with a chance of rain and/or snow, although only based on my experience with model trends, NOT a forecast for this storm, I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS may be a bit too extreme but the rest of the models trend more amplified - again, just a thought, not a forecast, and it's still just as possible that it stays suppressed.

[bluewave]

18z UKMET looks similar through 72 hrs.

[WeatherFox]

If only the position of the High winds up over New England. Then it can be a source of cold air reinforcement for the coastal storm to the south.

18z UKMET looks similar through 72 hrs.