Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[Snow_Miser]

Minimal differences with the 18z GFS through 21 hours so far compared to the 12z GFS at 500 mb.

At 27 hours it seems a bit faster with the s/w than the 12z GFS.

The 12z GFS was slow with the s/w and phased the storm way early causing a rainstorm here.

At hour 45 there are still no signfiicant differences to report from the 12z and 18z GFS runs.

[bluewave]

18z NAM looks like it would probably be a big hit for the southern Mid atlantic, with a ton of confluence across sern Canada and New England, W-E mid level flow, and the 50-50 pretty far SW. I tell you though - ton of moisture with this system. First time all season we finally have a juiced up STJ short wave with decent antecedent synoptics over SE Canada/Northeast.

Yeah, we were discussing that strong STJ signal but the models are still having trouble resolving the details.

[earthlight]

So far I'd argue that the GFS would be less amped than the 12z run, but more amped than the Euro and NAM. It's definitely not nearly as progressive with the northern stream as the Euro is.

[Snow_Miser]

At 51 there seems to be a little more northern stream working with the s/w than there was with the 12z.

[Ericjcrash]

So far I'd argue that the GFS would be less amped than the 12z run, but more amped than the Euro and NAM. It's definitely not nearly as progressive with the northern stream as the Euro is.

I sense QPF bomb as well looking at the gulf.

[supermeh]

GFS has that one shortwave that was coming down at 72 hrs on the 12z hooking with the first shotwave coming down at 54. Interesting.

[Ericjcrash]

Looks like a big one brewing at 66 1003 MB surface low, juicier too.

[earthlight]

Very broad trough but now it's farther west with the N stream and trough axis...this looks really amped up.

[Ericjcrash]

Wow goes boom at 72, going to be warm, 996 in the deep south.

[earthlight]

Yikes..it's pulling the surface low really far west.

[Ericjcrash]

Yikes..it's pulling the surface low really far west.

This could be BIG trouble for anyone around here.

[MJO812]

Yikes..it's pulling the surface low really far west.

Looks like an inland runner. Another solution.

[jm1220]

LOL-crushed like a bug on the GGEM to an Appies runner on the GFS. No sweat. Congrats... Detroit?

[Ericjcrash]

Looks like an inland runner. Another solution.

WAIT it may pull it off.

[bluewave]

This could be BIG trouble for anyone around here.

Where's a good block when you need one.

[earthlight]

Surface low goes over DC

[blizzardof09]

This could be BIG trouble for anyone around here.

Yea its still over 90 hours out and this pattern is progresive so its gonna take alot to make this thing cut that far west. I just dont see that as a very likely scenario....as of now

[Snow_Miser]

Light snow at 87 hours. It looks like it may be trying to transfer to the coast.

[MJO812]

Light snow at 87 hours. It looks like it may be trying to transfer to the coast.

We get some snow before it turns to a heavy rainstorm.

[jm1220]

Where's a good block when you need one.

I was wondering what was taking so long for the Lake Cutter trains we usually see during Ninas. We might just find out now.

Seriously though, it's an 18z GFS run. If we see 0z and 12z runs tomorrow trend this way, it could be real. It would be hard for me to see it end up this far west too, unless it's a quick and very amplified phase. But technically, there's really little stopping it if the flow allows for it.

[jm1220]

Light snow at 87 hours. It looks like it may be trying to transfer to the coast.

Consolation flakes before the driving 50F rainstorm, then dry slot. Maybe Buffalo would get something different from that on this run.

[Snow_Miser]

We get some snow before it turns to a heavy rainstorm.

Yeah, looks like the 12z GFS, which is not surprising, considering it has 12z data in it.

[Strongbad]

With a 984 Low off the coast of Jersey, could this result in dynamic cooling with precip falling? Or am I way off?

[Ericjcrash]

WAIT it may pull it off.

Didn't end up as bad as I thought it would, NW burbs still ok.City is close too, at 102

[MJO812]

Yeah, looks like the 12z GFS, which is not surprising, considering it has 12z data in it.

The low is west on this run compared to the 12z run.

[bluewave]

I was wondering what was taking so long for the Lake Cutter trains we usually see during Ninas. We might just find out now.

Seriously though, it's an 18z GFS run. If we see 0z and 12z runs tomorrow trend this way, it could be real. It would be hard for me to see it end up this far west too, unless it's a quick and very amplified phase. But technically, there's really little stopping it if the flow allows for it.

This run is a Pocono-Catskill plastering...

[Chris L]

With a 984 Low off the coast of Jersey, could this result in dynamic cooling with precip falling? Or am I way off?

The sfc low is too close toward it, the flow brings in warm air.

[CooL]

incredible hit for new england wow. 980mb SE of Montauk...Its cuts too far west before that for us too get nailed though

Major disagreement with the euro, and everything else

[Ericjcrash]

With a 984 Low off the coast of Jersey, could this result in dynamic cooling with precip falling? Or am I way off?

Actually its a bit stronger then that, nm cold air around but there still should be SOME dyanamics.

[mattinpa]

It looked like it would be an apps runner and then goes more east but still too north for many. Again, no support yet.