Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[yoda]

Lows over SE VA usually aren't good for many of us. Hopefully it's heading ENE from there.

At 120 its east of NS as a 972 mb SLP

[MJO812]

[earthlight]

The GEFS are really amped up again...96hr has a 1004mb surface low over OBX. More importantly there are four or more members which have sub 990 surface lows off the coast of New Jersey.

[forkyfork]

it's an ugly run for the city and the suburbs... you have to go at least 25 miles NW of the coast to get more than 6"

[bluewave]

RN/SN line too close for comfort with strong ENE flow at the coast.

[earthlight]

A bunch of really amped up solutions here as mentioned earlier. The red contour shows 990 hPa pressure. +96 hr.

[forkyfork]

A bunch of really amped up solutions here as mentioned earlier. The red contour shows 990 hPa pressure. +96 hr.

careful what you wish for

[Isotherm]

A track maybe 50-100 miles east of the 12z GFS track would be awesome for everyone. I definitely agree there's a threat, but so much to be worked out that it's impossible to get excited yet. I would certainly like the confluence in SE Canada to hold steady, otherwise this cuts west.

Agreed. Luckily we're still in the "correcting" stage, while will likely continue through Friday. The GGEM being offshore suggests the out to sea solution is still a possibility. The UKIE being more amped up suggests to me that the Euro will probably be more amped than its 00z run as well.

[KEITH L.I]

RN/SN line too close for comfort with strong ENE flow at the coast.

no doubt GFS solution would bring rain along the coast..east wind is a killer

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

^{We shouldn't be concerned about the rain/snow line this far out in my opinion. I'm just happy to see some more amped up solutions.}

[Isotherm]

If we had some arctic or even polar air to work with, more of the storm would be snow on the 12z GFS. But b/c we're dealing with such a marginal airmass, the coast waits until the sfc low falls sub 990mb to start changing to snow. Normally in February you can get accum snow out of a relatively weak low, but this is akin to a late March type set up.

[NJwinter23]

Actually, not to split hairs, but this looks like its over eastern Va, rather than 'off NC', doesnt it?

Very similar to the gfs... there are 4 shortwaves trying to interact/phas in some way on the 12z gfs..This is quite the crap shoot set up

[LocoAko]

The GFS still has almost 1" of liquid that falls as frozen QPF for the suburbs of NYC per the stormvista maps. Around 0.8" for the city itself.

Some areas of Northern NJ receive almost 1.3" liquid as frozen QPF.

BUFKIT doesn't seem to agree (shows 0.4" as snow for Morristown after receiving hour after hour of rain/sleet mix.

The actual 2m temp isn't that warm (mid 30s) but the 0C isotherm is up at 950mb for most of the storm for the northern half of NJ.

[ag3]

Actually, not to split hairs, but this looks like its over eastern Va, rather than 'off NC', doesnt it?

I apologize. Yes. Off eastern VA.

[forkyfork]

^{We shouldn't be concerned about the rain/snow line this far out in my opinion. I'm just happy to see some more amped up solutions.}

yes we should. there is almost no wiggle room for the city in this setup... no blocking, no confluence, fast flow, no source of cold air, low pressure over the great lakes

the negatives outweigh the positives

[PB GFI]

Im not goin to entertain a rain - snow line out 4 days out , I am way more excited that the surface feature looks like it wants to repsond to the upper air pattern - we just watched a storm meander 200 miles east this past wknd from its prog 24 to 36 hr ealrier .

The models have plenty of wiggle room to figure outthe true trough axis .

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

yes we should. there is almost no wiggle room for the city in this setup... no blocking, no confluence, fast flow, no source of cold air, low pressure over the great lakes

the negatives outweigh the positives

I guess my point is that I don't think it will be this close to the coast in the end. A track a bit offshore and we are all good.

[Dsnowx53]

yes we should. there is almost no wiggle room for the city in this setup... no blocking, no confluence, fast flow, no source of cold air, low pressure over the great lakes

the negatives outweigh the positives

For the most part, this is true, but I do think there is some degree of confluence - look at the jet streak in northern New England. The 50/50 low, albeit weak, is doing something.

[forkyfork]

I guess my point is that I don't think it will be this close to the coast in the end. A track a bit offshore and we are all good.

the factors i mentioned are allowing the storm to come west. there is almost nothing to stop the storm from coming west (assuming it phases and amplifies)

[NEG NAO]

lets face it in order to get a real snowstorm here you need a near perfect track in this situation can't rely on an amped up solution causing dynamic cooling - the 12Z GEFS would be a more or less very good track

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12096.gif

[earthlight]

the factors i mentioned are allowing the storm to come west. there is almost nothing to stop the storm from coming west (assuming it phases and amplifies)

Yes there is...there is a collapsing ridge out west which is going to stop the amplitude of the entire pattern to the east as it bulges east. The flow over Canada is pretty fast too so I highly doubt this storm is going to amplify enough to cut inland.

The problem we might have is that the northern stream isn't dropping far enough south. Last nights 00z GFS had a piece of the northern stream swing south and underneath our area. Today it remains over the Great Lakes which gives us a warmer boundary layer flow even initially.

Once the phase occurs over New England the cold air becomes entrained in the storm system.

[Dsnowx53]

Yes there is...there is a collapsing ridge out west which is going to stop the amplitude of the entire pattern to the east as it bulges east. The flow over Canada is pretty fast too so I highly doubt this storm is going to amplify enough to cut inland.

The problem we might have is that the northern stream isn't dropping far enough south. Last nights 00z GFS had a piece of the northern stream swing south and underneath our area. Today it remains over the Great Lakes which gives us a warmer boundary layer flow even initially.

Once the phase occurs over New England the cold air becomes entrained in the storm system.

There is a 150 knot jet streak running west to east in northern New England - that's a very fast flow and makes me believe that the OP GFS is as far west as this thing can go.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

the factors i mentioned are allowing the storm to come west. there is almost nothing to stop the storm from coming west (assuming it phases and amplifies)

We shall see what the Euro says. I'm guessing it will be more juiced but not as extreme as the GFS.

[PB GFI]

Yes there is...there is a collapsing ridge out west which is going to stop the amplitude of the entire pattern to the east as it bulges east. The flow over Canada is pretty fast too so I highly doubt this storm is going to amplify enough to cut inland.

The problem we might have is that the northern stream isn't dropping far enough south. Last nights 00z GFS had a piece of the northern stream swing south and underneath our area. Today it remains over the Great Lakes which gives us a warmer boundary layer flow even initially.

Once the phase occurs over New England the cold air becomes entrained in the storm system.

100 perc agree - We ve been watching a progressive pattern here for the last 2 months .

The models continue to advertise energy getting to the west coast at this time . the response downstream will set up your resistance or lack there of .

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

There is a 150 knot jet streak running west to east in northern New England - that's a very fast flow and makes me believe that the OP GFS is as far west as this thing can go.

Agreed.

[earthlight]

[supermeh]

Most of these are solid hits and not as warm as the Op run.

[PB GFI]

If there is any EASTERLY component to this keep in mind the Bouy`s around NYC are running 10 degrees above normal this Feb .

so will need this to jog east , have 4 days to sort it .

[Sundog]

The good thing is there are no solutions more amped than the op run of the GFS. I would hate to see members of the suite show up more north and west than the op.

[tornadojay]

good thing there's no leaves on the trees anymore.. the consistancy of this snow looks like it might be similar to the October storm.