Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[jm1220]

This is why we're dealing w/ a very delicate situation here, walking the tightrope as we've seen the full spectrum of model solutions over the past 24 hours from out to sea, to rainy, coastal hugger. The 50/50 low is the only thing synoptically keeping us in the game for a snow event, as someone earlier had noted. The amount of phasing we get w/ the northern stream will determine the storm's path; for us on the coast, I think we need to hope for a partial phase. A monster congealing of energy in a Nina pattern is likely to result in a plastering of the interior Northeast and garbage fest in the I-95 corridor. The flow is relatively zonal and the cold air is lacking; the confluence in sern Canada via the 50/50 should prevent a solution more amped than the 12z gfs suggest however (I'd say this run is pretty much the NW limit)

A track maybe 50-100 miles east of the 12z GFS track would be awesome for everyone. I definitely agree there's a threat, but so much to be worked out that it's impossible to get excited yet. I would certainly like the confluence in SE Canada to hold steady, otherwise this cuts west.

[Metsfan]

Here comes the its a rainstorm comments,dynamics would be crazy in that storm.everyone calmdownn

It looks to start off as light snow, quickly going over to rain on the coastal plain, as 850's warm and the 700 mb low is to the west at hr 102. As the storm heads northeast the rain will change back over to snow as the storm continues to intensify, and cold air is drawn into the system.

[Momza]

The dynamics would likely make it snow up to just west of the track. For the coast though, looks like a driving rain with that track. We need it a bit further east. Wouldn't matter if there's a high or not.

We learned that last Jan 26th

[bluewave]

compromise between the two...is that too much to ask for? (that is unless the UK decides to make it further up the coast)

The UKIE may be going with it's southerly bias but we'll need to see the Euro to confirm.

[jm1220]

We learned that last Jan 26th

That was a different setup with the snow mainly driven by a very intense upper air low. The initial WAA batch was well gone by then. This seems like a more congealed storm that all happens at once. With a track like that, it's not conducive at all near the coast besides maybe a consolation inch or two while NW of I-287 is plastered.

[Kaner587]

I would be very surprised if the Euro comes in as amped as the GFS - would think the solution just offshore from a couple days ago might reappear soon

I actually think the euro might come in with a nice solution for us...maybe the northern edge of a major storm. We'll see.

[ag3]

The UKIE may be going with it's southerly bias but we'll need to see the Euro to confirm.

UKIE has had no storm or a very weak OTS solution for its past 3 runs. Today's run is very amped up.

Encouraging to see.

[supermeh]

Does the extra raob data for today make it into all the models or just the GFS?

[yoda]

UKIE has a 995 low off NC at hour 96.

Could I get a link? Metocentre doesn't have it up yet

[MJO812]

UKIE has had no storm or a very weak OTS solution for its past 3 runs. Today's run is very amped up.

Encouraging to see.

Where does the low go?

[SBUWX23]

Amazing how we can predict what models are going to do before they even start!

I would be very surprised if the Euro comes in as amped as the GFS - would think the solution just offshore from a couple days ago might reappear soon

[MJO812]

12z GGEM is way south and OTS

[Momza]

That was a different setup with the snow mainly driven by a very intense upper air low. The initial WAA batch was well gone by then. This seems like a more congealed storm that all happens at once. With a track like that, it's not conducive at all near the coast besides maybe a consolation inch or two while NW of I-287 is plastered.

Did not remember the upper air low , just the surface bombing....

[ag3]

12z ggem is very surpressed, if anyone cares.

[supermeh]

12z GGEM is way south and OTS

Does not phase. Pretty big differences between it and the GFS.

[Momza]

12z ggem is very surpressed, if anyone cares.

No trend there!

[earthlight]

The GFS still has almost 1" of liquid that falls as frozen QPF for the suburbs of NYC per the stormvista maps. Around 0.8" for the city itself.

Some areas of Northern NJ receive almost 1.3" liquid as frozen QPF.

[Kaner587]

with so many s/w's I would be highly skeptical of the outcome being like the GFS depicts...the exact interaction between each s/w is likely to change many times before we get inside 24 hrs.

[earthlight]

GFS shows east winds for the coast during the height of the storm..it's rain for the coast..inland a different story..again the GFS is on it's own with this amped solution

Very sharp cutoff from the coast to the city and suburbs...but it's highly unlikely that it ends up that warm -- just my opinion -- especially with a 980 hPa surface low just off the coast. Even so...a huge snowstorm for the suburbs.

[Kaner587]

The GFS still has almost 1" of liquid that falls as frozen QPF for the suburbs of NYC per the stormvista maps. Around 0.8" for the city itself.

Some areas of Northern NJ receive almost 1.3" liquid as frozen QPF.

even with this solution it appears NYC west does well. If this is the far north-western potential of the storm as isotherm suggests, this is highly encouraging. Still worrying about an OTS miss however.

[earthlight]

The H7 low closes off a little late and a little bit too far west this run..and I'd assume the same can be said for the other mid level centers. But such a pinch off rarely happens where the GFS is indicating it will. Each storm is different but it's been a while since I've seen the H85 low close off over my house.

As it is the H7 low goes from S of NYC to Cape Cod. You'd ideally want it from around Atlantic City's latitude to maybe east of Block Island.

[ag3]

Does not phase. Pretty big differences between it and the GFS.

Im more comfortable with the UKIE showing a pretty amped up storm then what the GGEM has.

[supermeh]

Im more comfortable with the UKIE showing a pretty amped up storm then what the GGEM has.

Do you have the 108 hour frame for the UKIE?

[earthlight]

The GFS and NAM are very different as early as 48-54 hours -- so it's to the point now where we may actually have an idea of where this is going within the next day or so. The Euro should give us a great idea as well....I would think by tonight we should at least have a clue as to whether or not the GFS is out to lunch with its handling of the northern stream.

[yoda]

[jconsor]

This site has UKMET updated at least a half-hour before the others:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021

[Dsnowx53]

The awful French site for the Ukie shows a 995mb low near Norfolk, VA at 96 hours. It has 24 hr increments past day 3 so idk what happens at 108.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=96&carte=1021

[CTWeatherFreak]

UKIE has a 995 low off NC at hour 96.

Actually, not to split hairs, but this looks like its over eastern Va, rather than 'off NC', doesnt it?

[Kaner587]

Looks like it'd be a good solution for us

[jm1220]

Looks like it'd be a good solution for us

Lows over SE VA usually aren't good for many of us. Hopefully it's heading ENE from there.