Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[Kaner587]

This 84 hr NAM stuff has to stop. We have no idea if the new and updated model has any of the same problems the older versions do. The model has had several significant upgrades and just because its the 84 Hr NAM does not mean its wrong.

Upgrades or not the model isn't great at the edge of its scope. It doesn't take a met to see this. Looking at model runs after model runs for this whole winter will show all the models have been especially bad in the mid-range. So its not just the NAM. Its just historically much better in the <48hr timeframe

[SBUWX23]

I am well aware of this. All I am saying is that we dont actually know if the NAM has those same biases anymore. ALL the models have been struggling this winter in the medium range.

Upgrades or not the model isn't great at the edge of its scope. It doesn't take a met to see this. Looking at model runs after model runs for this whole winter will show all the models have been especially bad in the mid-range. So its not just the NAM. Its just historically much better in the <48hr timeframe

[MJO812]

GFS looks amped up at hour 72. Not sure if it will be enough though.

[supermeh]

GFS is introducing a new piece of energy dropping down from Canada at 72

[jm1220]

GFS is introducing a new piece of energy dropping down from Canada at 72

Such a complex setup. Wouldn't surprise me if we don't see a united solution until 24-36 hours beforehand. One wave somewhere in this flow can destroy the whole setup when many of them are interacting.

Another reason I enjoy Ninos better than Ninas. So much chaos in these fast-flow setups.

[mattinpa]

Well I will say this, joshua just called me screaming that the GFS looks amazing. I can't see it, but I haven't heard him scream like that since December 26 2010

In the MA forum they are acting sad, so I wonder if it looks like 00z GFS?

[bass28]

Gfs looks goood

[ag3]

Gfs looks goood

Its a rainstorm.

[earthlight]

Wow this run is really amped up...980s surface low just off the NJ coast...looks a little warm but we can deal with that later..the storm is huge on this run.

[jjvesnow]

Its a rainstorm.

Looks very warm!

[MJO812]

Big coastal hugger on the GFS. Inland areas get crushed.

[earthlight]

Its a rainstorm.

Dynamics would blow the roof off...we've seen this before. With that track id argue for a plastering snow once the mid level centers close off.

[Quakertown needs snow]

Dynamics would blow the roof off...we've seen this before. With that track id argue for a plastering snow once the mid level centers close off.

This is our hope! Rain to heavy wet snow?

[jm1220]

We might be lucky that we have this confluence, kicker and fast northern stream, lol. Otherwise, this would make a bee-line for the Lakes with a strong southern vort and a phase. Such are the perils of no-blocking setups.

[Brian5671]

We might be lucky that we have this confluence, kicker and fast northern stream, lol. Otherwise, this would make a bee-line for the Lakes with a strong southern vort and a phase. Such are the perils of no-blocking setups.

stale airmass doesnt help either--a cold high would do wonders

[jjvesnow]

stale airmass doesnt help either--a cold high would do wonders

Thank god for that 50/50 low or this is up to lakes.

[NEG NAO]

Dynamics would blow the roof off...we've seen this before. With that track id argue for a plastering snow once the mid level centers close off.

where would you draw the rain/mix/snow line at the height of the storm ?

[uofmiami]

Not sure if anyone saw this or posted it. But we got Pac Recon data in the GFS:

NOUS42 KWNO 151458
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1454Z WED FEB 15 2012
THE 12Z NAM HAS COMPLETED WITH NO DELAYS...THE 12Z GFS HAS STARTED
ON-TIME...
12Z RAOB RECAP...
TAE/72214 - PURGED TEMP/RH 968-950 MB...WET BULB EFFECT
NKX/72293 - PURGED TEMP/RH 851-826 MB...WET BULB EFFECT
SYA/70414 - UNAVBL
PPG/91765 - 10159
ADDITIONALLY...16 DROPSONDE IN SUPPORT OF WSR OPERATIONS WERE AVBL
FOR GFS INGEST...
$$
OREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[RobbieL241]

NNJ, the Hudson Valley and interior CT get crushed on this run. That makes two "on runs" (runs with latest RAOB data) of the GFS that have this solution.

[bass28]

Here comes the its a rainstorm comments,dynamics would be crazy in that storm.everyone calmdownn

[PB GFI]

2nd day of correcting west , need that trend to stop here .

[Rjay]

Lots of short waves on this run...phased the world lol

[jm1220]

stale airmass doesnt help either--a cold high would do wonders

The dynamics would likely make it snow up to just west of the track. For the coast though, looks like a driving rain with that track. We need it a bit further east. Wouldn't matter if there's a high or not.

[bluewave]

We might be lucky that we have this confluence, kicker and fast northern stream, lol. Otherwise, this would make a bee-line for the Lakes with a strong southern vort and a phase. Such are the perils of no-blocking setups.

We need some blocking to force the northern stream furser south and to prevent the southern stream from riding too far north.

[ag3]

UKIE has a 995 low off NC at hour 96.

[Isotherm]

This is why we're dealing w/ a very delicate situation here, walking the tightrope as we've seen the full spectrum of model solutions over the past 24 hours from out to sea, to rainy, coastal hugger. The 50/50 low is the only thing synoptically keeping us in the game for a snow event, as someone earlier had noted. The amount of phasing we get w/ the northern stream will determine the storm's path; for us on the coast, I think we need to hope for a partial phase. A monster congealing of energy in a Nina pattern is likely to result in a plastering of the interior Northeast and garbage fest in the I-95 corridor. The flow is relatively zonal and the cold air is lacking; the confluence in sern Canada via the 50/50 should prevent a solution more amped than the 12z gfs suggest however (I'd say this run is pretty much the NW limit)

[Kaner587]

The dynamics would likely make it snow up to just west of the track. For the coast though, looks like a driving rain with that track. We need it a bit further east. Wouldn't matter if there's a high or not.

Ya it looks like NYC west would do fine...except coastal sections (southern bklyn, southern queens). The 850line kind of straddles northern NYC.

[bass28]

UKIE has a 995 low off NC at hour 96.

Oh boyy!

[Kaner587]

UKIE has a 995 low off NC at hour 96.

compromise between the two...is that too much to ask for? (that is unless the UK decides to make it further up the coast)

[KEITH L.I]

GFS shows east winds for the coast during the height of the storm..it's rain for the coast..inland a different story..again the GFS is on it's own with this amped solution