Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

Mikehobbyst

By Mikehobbyst,
in New York City Metro

Recommended Posts

Kaner587

Kaner587

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I think the huge excitement over last night's GFS run was premature. Even if the surface was cold enough for snow, you have the problem of the primary over the Great Lakes. That right there could torch 850mb and above and make for a sleet fest. General rule is that if the 850mb low is north of you, expect at the very least mixing. Doesn't matter if the model shows it now or not-WAA at upper levels is very often underdone until the very end. See 2/14/07, where the sleet line made it 100-150+ miles north of where it was forecasted even 48 hours out.

And about the ESE winds, absolutely right too. Water is warmer this year than normal and it wouldn't be hard at all to torch the surface well above freezing. For the coast, it likely would've been slop or rain until the very end when the effects of the primary are finally gone. Inland, likely different story but again, sleet likely would be a problem if taken verbatim.

That wasn't the primary low. The low came straight out of the gulf and remained the dominant one, the low in the great lakes is associated with the northern stream disturbance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 676
  • Created
  • Last Reply
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

true i know that kind of debacle doesnt happen too often. But im just stating that nothing can really be taking seriously this stage in the game still as the models have performed poorly this year. I also agree the setup really produces a light setup and not a big amplified system but i guess we'll see in the coming days bluewave

Sure, I agree. I will be happy to get any accumulation in a winter like this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

That wasn't the primary low. The low came straight out of the gulf and remained the dominant one, the low in the great lakes is associated with the northern stream disturbance.

It's still acting to transport warm air via SW winds aloft, and would likely cause more problems due to mixing than models would have you believe now. I'd really like to see that feature weaker or not existent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kaner587

Kaner587

Posted
Posted

The NAM also has the same shortwave that the 00z GFS had...coming over the top of the Pacific ridge diving southward through Idaho into the Rockies and Plains.

Its that energy that really amps our storm...if we just had the southern stream s/w this would surely disappoint because we'd need absolute perfect timing with the northern stream. With this it seems like we have a little more wiggle room?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bmc10

bmc10

Posted
Posted

The NAM also has the same shortwave that the 00z GFS had...coming over the top of the Pacific ridge diving southward through Idaho into the Rockies and Plains.

Yea and importantly it allows the ridge to build out over NW Canada as it doesn't have any energy beating it down like the 6z gfs showed. Need that sw to eject, hangs back to long and phases late you also have problems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bmc10

bmc10

Posted
Posted

NAM drastically changed for the better. Holds the kicker further northwest, has a much better northern stream and ejects the southern vort faster.

Agreed and once it gets out there it really tends to lack clarity, but steps in the right direction, and things the NAM usually will improve on as we get closer to the event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
supermeh

supermeh

Posted
Posted

Agreed and once it gets out there it really tends to lack clarity, but steps in the right direction, and things the NAM usually will improve on as we get closer to the event.

The changes were good, however this run would be progressive and slide OTS off the SE Coast. The northern stream needs get down there and pull this north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

The changes were good, however this run would be progressive and slide OTS off the SE Coast. The northern stream needs get down there and pull this north.

There is still northern stream energy trying to get involved at the end of the run and the confluence over Maine is also moving east. IMO, it would be very close call.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kaner587

Kaner587

Posted
Posted

Still arguing for a suprressed storm at 84 hours...but the upper air pattern definitely moved towards the GFS and the Euro.

If we extrapolate this forward 24-36hr it looks like the confluence up north would shunt this storm a little too south and east to get us significant snows, although it wouldn't take much for this to trend better. Huge changes for sure though. I do love where were sitting right now in terms of the suppressed look. Don't think I'd be able to deal with models continually showing big hits 4-5-6 days out,

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bmc10

bmc10

Posted
Posted

I just don't think the NAM at 84 argued for an OTS solution. WIth the low amplified back west like that and all the energy, I think it would take a more inland track. I don't think the blocking or confluence will persist long enough to prevent this from coming north. You can see the amplified sw energy and the hgts rising ahead of it. I think the real problem with this run was that the SW energy was held back, had it continued to progress and eject, it would have had more interaction with the northern stream. As is, the northern stream moves along and out ahead of the low because the SW remains back and does not eject. A timing issue it would appear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bmc10

bmc10

Posted
Posted

Whats the likely timing on the puppy...over and done with by Sunday Night? I have a flight back from Tampa on monday at noon and it would suck if it were delayed...so yes im missing this storm no matter what happens...

That is correct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jefflaw77

Jefflaw77

Posted
Posted

Can anyone comment on the cold air available for this storm? From what I gather, the coast may have serious problems w/ snowfall as the antecedent cold air mass won't be very good. While the storm may be dynamic and help, the coast may nonetheless have serious issues.. Anyone with some serious comments on this that who would like to elaborate would be great..

Link to comment
Share on other sites
earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

Todays and tommorows runs are gonna be crucial to see if the northern stream interaction does indeed make this thing turn more north and not OTS. Im liking the move toward the euro/gfs though. Its not far off at all from being something big for us. Big step in the right direction guys

It also should give everybody a nice look as to how and why this event could end with people slamming their heads against a wall.

There is a zonal flow across the Central US from KS/NE eastward to the Mid Atlantic. And while tha will allow for some southern stream moisture to overrun into the MA and SE..it will make it very hard to get a storm up the coast IF the northern stream doesn't phase in.

The NAM as it is would be awfully fitting for this winter...the timing is just awful, really, as the southern stream ejects at the exact moment that the mid levels winds are screaming west to east across the Eastern US.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kaner587

Kaner587

Posted
Posted

It also should give everybody a nice look as to how and why this event could end with people slamming their heads against a wall.

There is a zonal flow across the Central US from KS/NE eastward to the Mid Atlantic. And while tha will allow for some southern stream moisture to overrun into the MA and SE..it will make it very hard to get a storm up the coast IF the northern stream doesn't phase in.

The NAM as it is would be awfully fitting for this winter...the timing is just awful, really, as the southern stream ejects at the exact moment that the mid levels winds are screaming west to east across the Eastern US.

Luckily its the 84hr NAM and is likely incorrect. Although this being a timing issue I have very low expectations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kaner587

Kaner587

Posted
Posted

The Euro shows essentially a similar idea -- so J wouldn't take it off the table of possibilities. This is a fast pattern to begin with.

I actually agree that the ultimate result will be a suppressed storm...just commenting on how bad the NAM can be at this range. I realized after I wrote that, that there actually is support for that solution. But who knows

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...