Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[earthlight]

the 00z run last night was significantly more amplified than this one. But who cares...it's day 4-5, anyway...and this winter with poor medium-range modeling; it's an eternity. The threat is there...and it's not always a bad thing to see supressed solutions time to time at this range, anyway. Elevated chance of a significant storm...but excitement should be kept it check.

Agreed...I'm not surprised we saw a few weenie solutions here and there today (dgex, gfs, etc). The general idea is that the potential for something significant is there. But the main problem with the Euro to me is the timing...it's poorly timed ejection of the shortwave from the southwest pretty much runs it into a confluent flow over the Northeast United States. The northern stream does get involved eventually but it's got nowhere to go.

The DGEX was completely different as it held back the energy long enough to meet up with a whole other entity and let the trough over the Northeast move out completely.

The GFS, finally, phased in the a shortwave that dove over the top of the Pacific ridge through Idaho and into the southern stream vort...as well as phased in some of the trough over the Northeast US and brought us the bomb solution it's own way.

Lots of options on the table, lots of time, no consistency.

Give it a few days.

[Manny]

Looks like improvement from most models, whether extreme or slight.

[Ericjcrash]

Gfs is on crack lol figures.

I wouldn't go that far, while the outlier, almost if not every model was more amped.

[tmagan]

00Z KMA Hour 108.

Hour 120 is out to sea.

[tmagan]

00Z ECMWF ensemble plus spread in color fill, hour 120.

[NEG NAO]

6z gfs is south and east again - this is probably closer to the truth then the amped 0Z run

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06102.gif

[Sundog]

6z gfs is south and east again - this is probably closer to the truth then the amped 0Z run

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06102.gif

Really? How do you know?

[blizzardof09]

This is the first real threat we've had all winter. I think this is a much different situation. Plus, you know to get excited in NYC when DT starts honking about heavy SE VA snow prematurely 5 days out.

Your spot on when was the last time a va,nc snowstorm was set in stone and did not comr north with these storms more often than not they have some kind of nw trend than a more progressive solution. Im still thinking we got till tommorow or friday to really start making accusations of whats really gonna happen IF the models even got an idea by then

[NEG NAO]

Really? How do you know?

I said closer to the truth since most models and ensembles keep going back to the further east solution - mainly caused by a lack of a negative nao that is strong enough - a pna that is weakening and the pacific flow problem..- that would be the the best compromise right now - whats your take ?

[paulyd]

U can tell how different 06z is from 00z gfs... Not as much phasing and not even as amped... Srry to upset you gus but lets say the 00z gfs outcome where to evolve this would be a rain/mix along all i95 850 is marginal and 1000-500 mb layer is almost above freezing and surface looks to be torching... Weak 50/50 with no high to the north no -Nao and maybe a kicker...not looking good

[NEG NAO]

U can tell how different 06z is from 00z gfs... Not as much phasing and not even as amped... Srry to upset you gus but lets say the 00z gfs outcome where to evolve this would be a rain/mix along all i95 850 is marginal and 1000-500 mb layer is almost above freezing and surface looks to be torching... Weak 50/50 with no high to the north no -Nao and maybe a kicker...not looking good

I agree - also the improvements to the physics of the GFS that went into effect yesterday still is yielding large run to run differences maybe one of the mets can help explain that ....................

[mattinpa]

I said closer to the truth since most models and ensembles keep going back to the further  east solution - mainly caused by a lack of a negative nao that is strong enough - a pna that is weakening  and the pacific flow problem..- that would be the the best compromise right now - whats your take ?

The 6z GFS is stiill north of other guidance. It's also warmer than other guidance. We shouldn't be all negative over what the 6z GFS shows anyway. The run to run differences could be due to the changes, I guess.

[NaoPos]

The 6z GFS is stiill north of other guidance. It's also warmer than other guidance. We shouldn't be all negative over what the 6z GFS shows anyway. The run to run differences could be due to the changes, I guess.

No, not all based solely on the 6z GFS. But take into consideration, the euro, ggem,ukie, euro and GFS ensembles.

[blizzardof09]

No, not all based solely on the 6z GFS. But take into consideration, the euro, ggem,ukie, euro and GFS ensembles.

We cant sweat over what models are showing right now based on a few model runs because the next run they are going to change because we have NO consistency yet. Euro hasnt been good at all this year and neither have the other models. We need atleast 48 more hours to get better sampling from the waves that are going to be having an eventual impact on this storm. Saying the 6z gfs will probably be right or just abouts is not smart to say at all right now because its gonna change again and again. Im not the only person whos thinking this either

[mattinpa]

We cant sweat over what models are showing right now based on a few model runs because the next run they are going to change because we have NO consistency yet. Euro hasnt been good at all this year and neither have the other models. We need atleast 48 more hours to get better sampling from the waves that are going to be having an eventual impact on this storm. Saying the 6z gfs will probably be right or just abouts is not smart to say at all right now because its gonna change again and again. Im not the only person whos thinking this either

When the Euro has been north it has been cold enough. That's one positive. This has the feel of something that could have many different outcomes other than a big snowstorm, but I do think it needs time to be sorted out.

[SnowGoose69]

We cant sweat over what models are showing right now based on a few model runs because the next run they are going to change because we have NO consistency yet. Euro hasnt been good at all this year and neither have the other models. We need atleast 48 more hours to get better sampling from the waves that are going to be having an eventual impact on this storm. Saying the 6z gfs will probably be right or just abouts is not smart to say at all right now because its gonna change again and again. Im not the only person whos thinking this either

The southern stream wave is onshore, the problem we'll possibly have again is not with that or the middle disturbance but the northern stream kicker, those tend to be sampled poorly, even when they are already into NW Canada.

[blizzardof09]

I.e. Boxing day when that kicker in canada was finally sampled we got a complete turnaround from waving it goodbye to getting a blizzard snowgoose correct? Probably different from this storm but this storm is no where near written in stone. We'll probably get some idea by thursday the earliest

[SnowGoose69]

I.e. Boxing day when that kicker in canada was finally sampled we got a complete turnaround from waving it goodbye to getting a blizzard snowgoose correct? Probably different from this storm but this storm is no where near written in stone. We'll probably get some idea by thursday the earliest

The northern stream sampling has screwed many storms one way or the other. The January 2000 and Boxing Day storms are two that are most notable although the Boxing Day event was also impacted by the models wanting to shear out the southern stream disturbance as well. A northern stream disturbance also screwed what should have been the 12/29/00 epic East Coast event for everyone and itself became the 12/30/00 event for mainly NY/NJ and CT.

[bluewave]

Wouldn't we also need more phasing as well? Having a slower western US energy and some more ridging in the west would help, but I'd think that there also needs to be more phasing along with the western ridge to have a better chance for this storm to at least attempt to move up the coast.

You would need more blocking and a better ridge in the west for phasing to occur close enough to us to make a difference.

The 500 mb pattern was never really on our side for a big storm here but we could get some light accumulations if

it tracks far enough north.

[SnowGoose69]

Another example this AM of how when used smartly the CIPS analogs are useful. The #1 analog by a huge margin at 96 hours on the 00Z GFS in a relatively large sampeled area covering the Gulf, Oh Valley and Lakes is 2/23/87. A storm that pounded S NJ and the northern MA but missed our area for the most part. Note below how the northern system really forces the low east.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1987/us0223.php

[blizzardof09]

I just think its too early to say what will happen if anything boxing day should be a reason why we shouldnt jump into any solution until ALL players are on the field and forecasted properly.

[Ginx snewx]

Another example this AM of how when used smartly the CIPS analogs are useful.  The #1 analog by a huge margin at 96 hours on the 00Z GFS in a relatively large sampeled area covering the Gulf, Oh Valley and Lakes is 2/23/87.  A storm that pounded S NJ and the northern MA but missed our area for the most part.  Note below how the northern system really forces the low east.

http://www.meteo.psu...1987/us0223.php

except the analog is at 120?

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg=

[paulyd]

I.e. Boxing day when that kicker in canada was finally sampled we got a complete turnaround from waving it goodbye to getting a blizzard snowgoose correct? Probably different from this storm but this storm is no where near written in stone. We'll probably get some idea by thursday the earliest

The boxing day storm was different because there was an upper level low coming into texas which captured our storm and brought it up the coast

[bluewave]

I just think its too early to say what will happen if anything boxing day should be a reason why we shouldnt jump into any solution until ALL players are on the field and forecasted properly.

The Boxing Day storm was the exception not the rule for us. It was the first time that models were thrown off like that

since the January 2000 storm.

[paulyd]

Im thinkong storm anywhere from the 27-march 10th and then sun angle starts screwing us

[blizzardof09]

The Boxing Day storm was the exception not the rule for us. It was the first time that models were thrown off like that

since the January 2000 storm.

true i know that kind of debacle doesnt happen too often. But im just stating that nothing can really be taking seriously this stage in the game still as the models have performed poorly this year. I also agree the setup really produces a light setup and not a big amplified system but i guess we'll see in the coming days bluewave

[supermeh]

Im thinkong storm anywhere from the 27-march 10th and then sun angle starts screwing us

Put in banter.

[Porsche]

Another example this AM of how when used smartly the CIPS analogs are useful. The #1 analog by a huge margin at 96 hours on the 00Z GFS in a relatively large sampeled area covering the Gulf, Oh Valley and Lakes is 2/23/87. A storm that pounded S NJ and the northern MA but missed our area for the most part. Note below how the northern system really forces the low east.

http://www.meteo.psu...1987/us0223.php

I'd be happy with down this way, but not as good for you guys.

[Weathergun]

We want phasing, but at the right time. On the 0z GFS this was starting to phasing too much back our west. You had a 500mb low closing off over the Great Lakes, to begin with. Which is not good for us, because it delays the cold air from getting into our area, keeps the winds out the E/SE. The 0z GFS bufkit soundings last night just showed mostly rain for the coast. Anyway, it's was an outlier and it's unlikely to be correct:

[jm1220]

We want phasing, but at the right time. On the 0z GFS this was starting to phasing too much back our west. You had a 500mb low closing off over the Great Lakes, to begin with. Which is not good for us, because it delays the cold air from getting into our area, keeps the winds out the E/SE. The 0z GFS bufkit soundings last night just showed mostly rain for the coast. Anyway, it's was an outlier and it's unlikely to be correct:

Yeah, I think the huge excitement over last night's GFS run was premature. Even if the surface was cold enough for snow, you have the problem of the primary over the Great Lakes. That right there could torch 850mb and above and make for a sleet fest. General rule is that if the 850mb low is north of you, expect at the very least mixing. Doesn't matter if the model shows it now or not-WAA at upper levels is very often underdone until the very end. See 2/14/07, where the sleet line made it 100-150+ miles north of where it was forecasted even 48 hours out.

And about the ESE winds, absolutely right too. Water is warmer this year than normal and it wouldn't be hard at all to torch the surface well above freezing. For the coast, it likely would've been slop or rain until the very end when the effects of the primary are finally gone. Inland, likely different story but again, sleet likely would be a problem if taken verbatim.