Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[Storm At Sea]

A couple of thoughts...

1. If Euro has a solid hit on tonight's and tomorrow 12Z run, I would take the MECS idea to the bank

2. GFS will probably lose this MECS scenario on 6Z or 12Z runs; If you want a MECS, consistency is NOT what you want to see on the GFS this far out. Consistency on the Euro is more meaningful IMO.

[Isotherm]

the whole thing looks a little suspect to me though...in theory, the sfc low on the gfs should push over the apps and make its way inland thus a warm and rain solution. i dont really see a good block and high to the north that would cause the primary to run into WNY and transfer or spin another sfc low off the coast. after looking at it again and again, its weird. im no expert, i could be wrong obv, but my weenie experience calls this gfs run a bluff.

The problem is we're walking a tightrope b/c the pattern overall is not all that conducive for a big snow event on the east coast. The lack of neg nao blocking makes this phasing a very delicate situation -- too little interaction of stream and we're looking at a solution which the GFS had earlier today, too much phasing (which can easily happen) with the northern stream short wave and the sfc low will be pulled too far NW yielding a rainer on the coastal plain. If we had a monster block with a deep, meridional trough in the East and arctic air pouring southward, it'd be much easier to get a major snow storm. But the flow is hardly buckling, there's no arctic air, and basically no polar air (amazing that the 00z gfs 980mb bomb can't even pull -10c 850s into the I-95 corridor). The point is this - can a big snow happen? Yes, but the chances of it occurring are much lower than would be the case w/ more favorable teleconnectors. As it stands we've got the 50/50 low on our side and the MJO is favorable, but everything else is less than stellar. I would be surprised to see run to run continuity before Thursday.

[Dsnowx53]

the whole thing looks a little suspect to me though...in theory, the sfc low on the gfs should push over the apps and make its way inland thus a warm and rain solution. i dont really see a good block and high to the north that would cause the primary to run into WNY and transfer or spin another sfc low off the coast. after looking at it again and again, its weird. im no expert, i could be wrong obv, but my weenie experience calls this gfs run a bluff.

The primary didn't run into Buffalo - that was the low from the northern stream disturbance. Our storm came straight up the coast from the gulf states. We don't have a great block but we do have a 50/50 low.

[earthlight]

GEFS are pretty amped up now too.. surface low goes from OBX north and east.

More importantly the spaghetti plots show a whole bunch of members showing bombs tracking from East of OC MD to the vicinity of the 40/70 BM.

[bass28]

GEFS are pretty amped up now too.. surface low goes from OBX north and east.

More importantly the spaghetti plots show a whole bunch of members showing bombs tracking from East of OC MD to the vicinity of the 40/70 BM.

Thats what I like to hear!letd see ukie now.

[Chris L]

A couple of thoughts...

1. If Euro has a solid hit on tonight's and tomorrow 12Z run, I would take the MECS idea to the bank

2. GFS will probably lose this MECS scenario on 6Z or 12Z runs; If you want a MECS, consistency is NOT what you want to see on the GFS this far out. Consistency on the Euro is more meaningful IMO.

Yes, but in a La Nina, ECMWF, (This season) has been pretty terrible.

[Storm At Sea]

This is the first real threat we've had all winter. I think this is a much different situation. Plus, you know to get excited in NYC when DT starts honking about heavy SE VA snow prematurely 5 days out.

[Kaner587]

GEFS are pretty amped up now too.. surface low goes from OBX north and east.

More importantly the spaghetti plots show a whole bunch of members showing bombs tracking from East of OC MD to the vicinity of the 40/70 BM.

Very good sign that it has ensemble support but this whole set up makes me really nervous. Big storm possibility, so many ways it doesn't work out. Sometimes I hate that the weather interests me so much,

[Isotherm]

This is the first real threat we've had all winter. I think this is a much different situation. Plus, you know to get excited in NYC when DT starts honking about heavy SE VA snow prematurely 5 days out.

I agree it's the first real threat of the winter, but I don't think it's time to get excited. A lot can go wrong as I noted in the post above.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

the 50/50 low is weak and transient. it could be enough but i wouldnt really consider it as overly favorable for us. and if you look at 700mb, that is not favorable. the northern disturbance takes over and pulls the southern disturbance essentially into it, then it somehow magically pops another low off the delmarva. its weird. i never really look at the sfc with these so whatever its showing there i can give two craploads.

[Kaner587]

This is the first real threat we've had all winter. I think this is a much different situation. Plus, you know to get excited in NYC when DT starts honking about heavy SE VA snow prematurely 5 days out.

This has that mecs/hecs possibility feel to it esp with than weenie 00z gfs run.

[earthlight]

the 50/50 low is weak and transient. it could be enough but i wouldnt really consider it as overly favorable for us. and if you look at 700mb, that is not favorable. the northern disturbance takes over and pulls the southern disturbance essentially into it, then it somehow magically pops another low off the delmarva. its weird.

The intense closed upper level low over the Great Lakes is phasing in and diving southeast..it's not too weird of a solution.

Not your typical Miller A HECS bomb, but definitely not wrong based on what it's showing at H5.

[Isotherm]

the 50/50 low is weak and transient. it could be enough but i wouldnt really consider it as overly favorable for us. and if you look at 700mb, that is not favorable. the northern disturbance takes over and pulls the southern disturbance essentially into it, then it somehow magically pops another low off the delmarva. its weird

You say "magically pops" like the low appears out of thin air. It's the same low that was down in GA/AL a few frame before. The northern stream feature, by digging further south, helps direct the mid level flow more SW-NE thereby pulling the sfc low up the east coast.

[Chris L]

One thing I like is the baroclinic leaf is showing up with the sfc low and that is a sign of excellent cyclogenesis potential within the baroclinic zones and the thermal (temp) graident/advection.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

You say "magically pops" like the low appears out of thin air. It's the same low that was down in GA/AL a few frame before. The northern stream feature, by digging further south, helps direct the mid level flow more SW-NE thereby pulling the sfc low up the east coast.

gotchya...yea i see that.

[Guest Pamela]

the whole thing looks a little suspect to me though...in theory, the sfc low on the gfs should push over the apps and make its way inland thus a warm and rain solution. i dont really see a good block and high to the north that would cause the primary to run into WNY and transfer or spin another sfc low off the coast. after looking at it again and again, its weird. im no expert, i could be wrong obv, but my weenie experience calls this gfs run a bluff.

It has certainly been an anomalous winter...but storm tracks up the spine of the Appalachians are, from a climatological standpoint, pretty rare in mid February...perhaps rarer than at any other point in the cold season.

[bass28]

Ukie closer to ggem then gfs.

[SnoSki14]

At this point I'll believe it when I see it, bring it within 48-60 hours and then we'll talk. The gfs looks more likely to favor a rainstorm than a snowstorm if it's correct, just not buying it right now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It has certainly been an anomalous winter...but storm tracks up the spine of the Appalachians are, from a climatological standpoint, pretty rare in mid February...perhaps rarer than at any other point in the cold season.

fair point....but if the southern disturbance begins to phase with the GL low too soon, a track over ATL and then just E of the spine is certainly feasable and the end result not favorable for most of us.

I think we recognize we are in a fine line with this one, given how unfavorable the flow is up north.

[earthlight]

The Euro looks absolutely nothing like the GFS at 54 hours in regards to the northern stream heights.

[earthlight]

The Euro is definitely more amplified than its 12z run from this afternoon through 90 hr. It looks nothing like the GFS -- but it's trending better in regards to the timing with the northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes.

[earthlight]

Surface low is elongated and off the southeast coast at 108 hr...nothing exciting. That being said it did hint at a move towards a more amplified solution by backing off on the northern stream trough over the lakes and allowing more energy to dive into the trough over the MS Valley at 90 hr.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Great, the cirrus deck may reach Philly lol

[earthlight]

Great, the cirrus deck may reach Philly lol

Probably a stretch, this run.

[MJO812]

What a big difference between the GFS,GEFS and Euro. Ukie and GGEM are in between of the other models.

[bass28]

Gfs is on crack lol figures.

[OSUmetstud]

the 00z run last night was significantly more amplified than this one. But who cares...it's day 4-5, anyway...and this winter with poor medium-range modeling; it's an eternity. The threat is there...and it's not always a bad thing to see supressed solutions time to time at this range, anyway. Elevated chance of a significant storm...but excitement should be kept it check.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If the EURO still looks like this in 24 hrs, then I'd worry....it's probably locked.

[OSUmetstud]

even if you guys do end up with a nice storm, did people just expect the models to lock in at 96-120 hours and show storm progs until day 0? lol

[NaoPos]

even if you guys do end up with a nice storm, did people just expect the models to lock in at 96-120 hours and show storm progs until day 0? lol

Lol , c'mon on.....;-)

At this point, it's easier to lean towards the southern slider solution for sanity's sake.