Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[earthlight]

982mb surface low inside the benchmark at 108-114 hours with over an inch of frozen qpf for most of the area...verbatim a MECS or more especially for areas just away from the coast....heavy deformation snows.

[yoda]

111 hours is going to send this entire board into a frenzy...good lord.

Up there yes, from PHL on south no

[earthlight]

Up there yes, from PHL on south no

Lol...it will change completely in 6 hours. Worth a laugh though.

[CooL]

984mb on the BM with heavy heavy precipitation over the area.. Wow!

[earthlight]

Per the stormvista maps...1"+ frozen QPF for all of Northern/Northeast NJ...NYC...Southeast NY..CT..into all of SNE....not including immediate coasts of NJ or LI and the south shores of SNE.

[JonClaw]

If the Euro shows this later, then maybe, just maybe, we have something to track?

[mattinpa]

Up there yes, from PHL on south no

Looks like PHL gets a least part snow too.. crazy solution.

[earthlight]

[earthlight]

Funniest part of the whole thing has to be the primary low over Buffalo.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

about as big of a weenie run you will get....long duration event and crushing snows. ugh, one can only wish. lets see what tonites euro donk shows.

[MJO812]

First the DGEX showed a big bomb, now the GFS. Wow.

[earthlight]

First the DGEX showed a big bomb, now the GFS. Wow.

Two totally different ways. The DGEX is literally as different of a solution as you could get from this GFS run.

[Sundog]

It would be great if we could get this storm to speed up and cut down on the lead time. Also, the phase, whenever that actually does (or does not?) occur is a good bit prior to the storm moving into our area, so if you ask me the real lead time to this storm is when the phase would happen, meaning between 3 and 4 days. Still a long wait though in any year.

This is all per the GFS, btw.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

stalls out for a SNE special. those folks are going bonkers over the gfs run right now.

[Saturn510]

It would be great if we could get this storm to speed up and cut down on the lead time. Also, the phase, whenever that actually does (or does not?) occur is a good bit prior to the storm moving into our area, so if you ask me the real lead time to this storm is when the phase would happen, meaning between 3 and 4 days. Still a long wait though in any year.

This is all per the GFS, btw.

I am pretty sure this is the first time this season that the GFS actually showed a MECS for our area inside of 6 days.

[Dsnowx53]

Imagine if we got a full phase from that great lakes energy? (what turned out to be the Buffalo primary). We did get some phasing, though.

[Chris L]

First the DGEX showed a big bomb, now the GFS. Wow.

DGEX is a classic Miller A a la Feb 03 et al.

[Absolute Humidity]

This is the biggest weenie run inside 120 this whole winter. Lock it in.

[Chris L]

Imagine if we got a full phase from that great lakes energy? (what turned out to be the Buffalo primary). We did get some phasing, though.

Doug, you will make every weenie on here go nuts...

[Isotherm]

What a difference a run makes, the main change being the vortex placement/orientation in sern Ontario. On the 18z run, it was depicted much further north, thus very little phasing w/ the southern short wave, allowing it to shoot ENE out to sea. The 00z GFS digs this vortex pretty far south, pumping mid level heights big time on the east coast. One can see by the orientation of the height lines east of New England how big a differenc ewe're talking here. WSW-ENE mid level flow on the 18z run versus almost a SSW-NNE flow on the 00z run. Any more phasing than this solution and we'd be looking at rain for the I-95 corridor.

Stable features (relatively) on both runs -- short wave on the wets coast, ridge axis in the central plains, and the 50-5o low in SE Canada which is probably one of the better aspects synoptically in favor of this storm.

[Sundog]

What a difference a run makes, the main change being the vortex placement/orientation in sern Ontario. On the 18z run, it was depicted much further north, thus very little phasing w/ the southern short wave, allowing it to shoot ENE out to sea. The 00z GFS digs this vortex pretty far south, pumping mid level heights big time on the east coast. One can see by the orientation of the height lines east of New England how big a differenc ewe're talking here. WSW-ENE mid level flow on the 18z run versus almost a SSW-NNE flow on the 00z run. Any more phasing than this solution and we'd be looking at rain for the I-95 corridor.

Stable features (relatively) on both runs -- short wave on the wets coast, ridge axis in the central plains, and the 50-5o low in SE Canada which is probably one of the better aspects synoptically in favor of this storm.

Also notice the closed contour with the energy over the west. The ridge axis is also a few hundred miles farther west over the Dakotas at 0z.

[Kaner587]

Doug, you will make every weenie on here go nuts...

Ya that would need to dig a bit more but woah. If that happens who knows. Yr of extremes....

[atownwxwatcher]

NYC

SUN 06Z 19-FEB 3.3 -5.7 1011 82 97 0.04 549 540

SUN 12Z 19-FEB 2.1 -1.8 998 94 99 0.63 540 542

SUN 18Z 19-FEB 1.3 -1.9 995 99 97 0.57 532 536

MON 00Z 20-FEB 0.7 -7.6 1000 90 89 0.22 523 523

MON 06Z 20-FEB -1.8 -6.7 1002 91 97 0.06 525 524

Looks like 1.52

[MJO812]

0z GGEM shifted slightly west from the 12z run but still a close miss.

[bass28]

Ggem better but no gfs.

[Kaner587]

NYC

SUN 06Z 19-FEB 3.3 -5.7 1011 82 97 0.04 549 540

SUN 12Z 19-FEB 2.1 -1.8 998 94 99 0.63 540 542

SUN 18Z 19-FEB 1.3 -1.9 995 99 97 0.57 532 536

MON 00Z 20-FEB 0.7 -7.6 1000 90 89 0.22 523 523

MON 06Z 20-FEB -1.8 -6.7 1002 91 97 0.06 525 524

Looks like 1.52

Verbatim would be a foot of paste. As modeled would cause major problems

[Sundog]

The more important thing is how the GGEM evolves. Is it showing diving energy out of Canada like the GFS did? I'd rather just have support for the system's evolution at this point rather than exact placement.

[Kaner587]

0z GGEM shifted slightly west from the 12z run but still a close miss.

Let's keep it that way...were so close to rain on the gfs we may want a compromise solution

[MJO812]

0z GGEM has a high up north, instead of a low like the GFS showed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

the whole thing looks a little suspect to me though...in theory, the sfc low on the gfs should push over the apps and make its way inland thus a warm and rain solution. i dont really see a good block and high to the north that would cause the primary to run into WNY and transfer or spin another sfc low off the coast. after looking at it again and again, its weird. im no expert, i could be wrong obv, but my weenie experience calls this gfs run a bluff.