Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[NEG NAO]

Both the Euro and now the DGEX has had a MECS in I -95 next weekend in one of their runs the past 24 and the improved 18 GFS was close and we are still 5 days out - definetely alot of potential thats for sure

[blizzardof09]

Both the Euro and now the DGEX has had a MECS in I -95 next weekend in one of their runs the past 24 and the improved 18 GFS was close and we are still 5 days out - definetely alot of potential thats for sure

yes the euro, but the dgex your playing with fire lol. the 18z gfs did improve but we need to establish a nice trend in order to really get excited man. we'll see in the next few days where the chips fall

[SBUWX23]

There is no trend right now. Every cycle is different and this has to do with the little intricacies in the flow. We wont know for sure whats going to happen for several days so dont expect a trend if tonights runs are offshore again.

yes the euro, but the dgex your playing with fire lol. the 18z gfs did improve but we need to establish a nice trend in order to really get excited man. we'll see in the next few days where the chips fall

[blizzardof09]

There is no trend right now. Every cycle is different and this has to do with the little intricacies in the flow. We wont know for sure whats going to happen for several days so dont expect a trend if tonights runs are offshore again.

i know that why i said we need to establish a trend before we get excited. sorry if i worded it the wrong way. this is a very volatile setup and your right we may not know what may go on for several days

[Ericjcrash]

The same kind of thing happened yesterday at 18z, only to be taken away at 0z, also the system has slowed down by a day or so.

[Ericjcrash]

Where do i sign?

http://www.emc.ncep.....totsnow192.gif

On the dotted line! Lol, seriously that would be a major storm with ~1' from DC up to NYC.

[Mitchel Volk]

With this winter I be surprise if this storm makes it's way up the coast. The ECMWF totally droped it and an 18Z GFS runs are normally too strong. So at this time chances are low for I-95 snow, but there is still time for things to change.

[Storm At Sea]

Same crap, different year. For the I-95, this system is exactly where you want it to be. There will be a north trend in the models soon.

[blizzardof09]

Same crap, different year. For the I-95, this system is exactly where you want it to be. There will be a north trend in the models soon.

how much confidence do you have in that statement buddy? im thinking the same thing due to the fact that all our big storms had nw trend with them

[Storm At Sea]

Honestly, over the past 10 years, I can think of only a handful of storms that did not follow either A) or B ) below :

A) Storm shows on 6 day panel, takes a hiatus for several days, and returns 84-90 HR out.

B ) Storm progged to drop drop SN+ on NC/VA 6 days out, only to actually dump a foot on the I-95 (AKA NW trend)

[blizzardof09]

Honestly, over the past 10 years, I can think of only a handful of storms that did not follow either A) or B ) below :

A) Storm shows on 6 day panel, takes a hiatus for several days, and returns 84-90 HR out.

B ) Storm progged to drop drop SN+ on NC/VA 6 days out, only to actually dump a foot on the I-95 (AKA NW trend)

i was thinking more like B in this case its like the models always underestimate a branch of the jet stream be it the southern or northern stream. and this storm the past few days have been mid atlantic hits. your correct in saying not very many storms have not come up the coast the past ten years with this set up.

[Isotherm]

Honestly, over the past 10 years, I can think of only a handful of storms that did not follow either A) or B ) below :

A) Storm shows on 6 day panel, takes a hiatus for several days, and returns 84-90 HR out.

B ) Storm progged to drop drop SN+ on NC/VA 6 days out, only to actually dump a foot on the I-95 (AKA NW trend)

I posted similarly earlier today. However, in a winter like this where everything that can go wrong, will go wrong, it'll probably screw us somehow.

[blizzardof09]

I posted similarly earlier today. However, in a winter like this where everything that can go wrong, will go wrong, it'll probably screw us somehow.

and then theres that tidbit that sums up our potential storms this year. we really got a legit shot at this storm but we gotta remember what can screw us has this winter.

[SnowGoose69]

The 21Z old ETA definitely does not look like it will phase the low in the southern stream with the energy diving through the central Plains. The 00Z NAM is a tough call, its very much a toss up on the 78 and 84 hour frames as to what would ultimately occur at 96-102 with those 2 disturbances.

[Absolute Humidity]

I posted similarly earlier today. However, in a winter like this where everything that can go wrong, will go wrong, it'll probably screw us somehow.

I don't know about that entirely. We really haven't had many legit mid range threats this winter and the two actual snow events we did have, Oct 29 KU and Jan 11 SWFE actually over performed a bit so this one may be the one. I would't be surprised to see nice SECS or low end MECS out of this. We're due.

[CooL]

The 21Z old ETA definitely does not look like it will phase the low in the southern stream with the energy diving through the central Plains. The 00Z NAM is a tough call, its very much a toss up on the 78 and 84 hour frames as to what would ultimately occur at 96-102 with those 2 disturbances.

Extrapolating the nam is dangerous but it would probably end up cutting. The southern vort misses the first northern stream wave and hangs back and would probably end up phasing with the nw energy, i think

[earthlight]

The 00z GFS is already completely different than the 18z run and the 00z NAM at 54 hrs

[blinkers88]

The 00z GFS is already completely different than the 18z run and the 00z NAM at 54 hrs

How so??

[earthlight]

Lol...it's phasing in energy which came over the top of the ridge in the Pacific already at 60 hrs. The energy is really far west too..it came in over Idaho.

[earthlight]

Although I'm not sure if maybe you'd rather wait for this energy to pass by...because as it is the GFS is already bringing a strong shortwave trough ashore in the Pac NW which certainly won't help us.

[Dsnowx53]

The energy diving down from the north is diving in a much more meridional fashion. This would favor an earlier phase.

[Dsnowx53]

Although I'm not sure if maybe you'd rather wait for this energy to pass by...because as it is the GFS is already bringing a strong shortwave trough ashore in the Pac NW which certainly won't help us.

The shortwave trough doesn't look any faster than 18z - a hair more amplified maybe which is why the flow is more meridional to begin with.

[earthlight]

Looks pretty amped up this run..heights on the east coast are really favorable now. But the phase is still pretty sloppy so far.

[Dsnowx53]

Looks pretty amped up this run..heights on the east coast are really favorable now. But the phase is still pretty sloppy so far.

The northern stream vort maxes are much stronger, though. The GFS trending towards having more potent energy to potentially phase with is a good sign IMO.

[CooL]

the changes in the northern stream were noticeable very early in the run. This will come in more amplified, probly further N and W as well

[earthlight]

The northern stream vort maxes are much stronger, though. The GFS trending towards having more potent energy to potentially phase with is a good sign IMO.

Yeah -- but the main piece it's trying to phase with is too far north over the Great Lakes.

The main theme continues with absolutely laughable changes in guidance at a 54-72 hr lead time which are being magnified tremendously at 84 hrs and beyond.

[earthlight]

The surface low is over Central North Carolina at 99 hours but like I said the northern stream energy is too far north over the Great Lakes.

This run could actually pull the surface low along the coastal plain.

[Mitchel Volk]

Again the models have no handle with this weather pattern. From way out to sea to a phase up that could go well west of the I-95 in two runs, I say it is anyone guess. It will be interesting to see what the King of the Medium range models say (ECMWF) in tonight's run.

[supermeh]

102 looks nice.

[earthlight]

111 hours is going to send this entire board into a frenzy...good lord.