Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

[Kaner587]

Should be very interesting to see what the GFS does after this.

However, this further goes to show you that one solution is DEFINITELY NOT set in stone.

at 105 it looks nice but that confluence up north looks like it might crush this thing as it tries to ride the coast...well see

[Snow_Miser]

This is getting pretty interesting... If the northern stream can phase with the southern stream entirely, then we may have a weenie solution on our hands.

[Kaner587]

The 18Z GFS looks like its gonna be congrats Buffalo unless it makes a hard right as well

snowgoose...look at that trough moving through the NE its flattening out heights...i cant imagine this cuts west.

[CooL]

lol, this looks more like the euro last night then anything..992mb east of the BM, snow up to NYC

[NYCSuburbs]

:lol:

The DGEX gives our area a moderate to heavy snowstorm.

Wow is that a lot of snow.

This DGEX run looks like it handles the storm differently as well - the set up almost resembles a northern version of 2/5/10 with the QPF shield spreading north into the Ohio Valley before a sharp ESE gradient develops in the sothern NE. Considering that it's the DGEX it's not worth much, but today's models are still showing signs of inconsistency, such as the 6z GFS by keeping the storm in the southern US, the latest 18z GFS which is coming in stronger, the 0z ECM which showed the crazy snow solution, and the 12z ECM which quickly backed south. The set up is definitely more favorable than it has been for most events this winter, including the weak ridging near the Davis Strait and the stronger southern shortwave, but just as we've seen with so many storms this false winter, I'm not so sure if the set up will be able to produce something decent for us despite the existing potential for a more favorable scenario.

[Kaner587]

lol, this looks more like the euro last night then anything..992mb east of the BM, snow up to NYC

so close to a monster here...that northern stream s/w rolling through either needs to phase at the right time or move slightly quicker to allow amplification of the southern stream s/w. It is really very delicate though because if it moves too quick then it has too much space to amplify and this thing cuts west or at the least is a coastal runner.

[Snow_Miser]

And the GFS just barely escapes from giving us a major snow storm.

Nice trends overall on the 18z GFS.

[blizzardof09]

And the GFS just barely escapes from giving us a major snow storm.

Nice trends overall on the 18z GFS.

the models are trending towards a more amplified solution, but i wont feel comfortble with any solution till atleast thursday 0z or friday 12z.

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS is now phasing that little piece of energy over the Plains with the southern stream remarkably though this run would have gone right up the coast, probably over NYC or LI if not for that Vort swinging across Ontario. Note the system in the southern stream is already going negative by 96-102 hours, that location is a bit west of where you want it to be going negatively tilted. The vort over Canada prevents it from being a snow to rain event, unfortunately it makes it a no snow event too more or less. We need to avoid being greedy here, a phase with that northern vort as well could cause this to come too far west.

[rossi]

the models are trending towards a more amplified solution, but i wont feel comfortble with any solution till atleast thursday 0z or friday 12z.

How much snow comes up to nyc?

[CooL]

so close to a monster here...that northern stream s/w rolling through either needs to phase at the right time or move slightly quicker to allow amplification of the southern stream s/w. It is really very delicate though because if it moves too quick then it has too much space to amplify and this thing cuts west or at the least is a coastal runner.

There is nicely timed confluence in SE canada, i don't think this will cut. Should be interesting with the euro backing off and then the gfs just picking up where the euro left off

[supermeh]

That kicker out west still is f***ing up the flow on the east coast. If we can delay that or have that drop south instead of southeast...game on.

[SnowGoose69]

That kicker out west still is f***ing up the flow on the east coast. If we can delay that or have that drop south instead of southeast...game on.

Having the kicker go negatively tiled can help too, thats sort of what happened on 12/26/10 and it is what happened on the January 2000 storm.

[blizzardof09]

How much snow comes up to nyc?

the 18z model literally misses us with a monster snowstorm by a hair. its very close

[supermeh]

Having the kicker go negatively tiled can help too, thats sort of what happened on 12/26/10 and it is what happened on the January 2000 storm.

That will allow the heights out west to pump up a bit, correct?

[bluewave]

18z GFS looks like a relpay of Saturday. But the models were to wet with that forecast for us.

[Kaner587]

That kicker out west still is f***ing up the flow on the east coast. If we can delay that or have that drop south instead of southeast...game on.

The issue here is that even at 78 hrs the northern stream disturbance that we may want to phase in is wayyy too far east. Even if it dropped straight from there what would likely occur is that this storm would be shunted even further SE. We need changes to occur that are modeled relatively early on. Maybe in the 48-72hr timeframe. The other issue with this storm threat is that if we miss the phase and the northern stream s/w ends up acting as well timed confluence, then as I said before it needs to be PERFECT otherwise its a swing and a miss and the storm escapes SE. If were rooting for a phase here, I agree with snowgoose that if it occurred on the 18z GFS it would likely have been some sort of snow-rain situation. For this to change, we need some changes w/ the southern stream s/w as well. For the perfect situation we want that kicker to slow down or be less intense (prob a mix of both) and the southern stream s/w needs to stay positively tilted a little longer, hopefully waiting for that northern stream s/w to drop in. Highly unlikely that we get a perfect solution here...but I think its entirely possible we get a compromise solution where its primarily southern stream driven and we get a moderate snow out of it.

I see now from snowgoose's post that the kicker could also be so strong that it goes neg tilt and helps us out too. So basically one extreme or the other. No in between.

[SnowGoose69]

That will allow the heights out west to pump up a bit, correct?

No, instead of acting as a kicker the kicker acts to pull the storm back closer to the coast...see below how it happened in January 2000...if you just look at that setup with looping through it you would think the systme over the Midwest was going to boot the storm, but it didn't.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2000/us0125.php

[supermeh]

No, instead of acting as a kicker the kicker acts to pull the storm back closer to the coast...see below how it happened in January 2000...if you just look at that setup with looping through it you would think the systme over the Midwest was going to boot the storm, but it didn't.

http://www.meteo.psu...2000/us0125.php

Ahhh...interesting. Cool stuff. Hopefully we can get something along those lines.

[bluewave]

No, instead of acting as a kicker the kicker acts to pull the storm back closer to the coast...see below how it happened in January 2000...if you just look at that setup with looping through it you would think the systme over the Midwest was going to boot the storm, but it didn't.

http://www.meteo.psu...2000/us0125.php

Hopefully we never see another dry slot like that one again.

[Kaner587]

forgetting the major changes we need to see in terms of timing of the s/w's for this thing to be the big one, this is how many major east coast storms are modeled in the mid range before the NW trend begins. Personally this winter has left me pessimistic of our snow chances but who knows. I guess we'll watch the trends over the next 24-48 hrs to see where were headed. Hopefully its this

[blizzardof09]

forgetting the major changes we need to see in terms of timing of the s/w's for this thing to be the big one, this is how many major east coast storms are forecast in the mid range before the NW trend begins. Personally this winter has left me pessimistic of our snow chances but who knows. I guess we'll watch the trends over the next 24-48 hrs to see where were headed. Hopefully its this

i think everybody has that attitude and can join you on this statement including me. your right our biggest storms were forecast to go out to sea only to trend nw, need that to happen cause this could be a huge storm for us

[WeatherFox]

How much snow comes up to nyc?

Much too earlier to say...

[earthlight]

18z GFS looks like a relpay of Saturday. But the models were to wet with that forecast for us.

In QPF totals, maybe. But the way the system evolves is completely different. The southern stream vort has forced the development of a strong storm over the Southeast with a noticeable dryslot at H7 at 114 hours. The storm from this past weekend was still getting organized as it passed over us.

http://www.meteo.psu...VN_18z/f114.gif

[earthlight]

The GEFS definitely improved from 12z...although the mean still really doesn't scream potential.

[bluewave]

In QPF totals, maybe. But the way the system evolves is completely different. The southern stream vort has forced the development of a strong storm over the Southeast with a noticeable dryslot at H7 at 114 hours. The storm from this past weekend was still getting organized as it passed over us.

http://www.meteo.psu...VN_18z/f114.gif

This will get going earlier with a Gulf connection but the streams look to phase too late for more than some light snow here.

[CooL]

This will get going earlier with a Gulf connection but the streams look to phase too late for more than some light snow here.

too early to make a call, depending on various factors this could definitely come more north before hooking out. It also get get suppressed and go out to sea off the coast of south carolina. With lots of factors at play, rapid changes on the models, all in a semi favorable pattern for an east coast snowstorm, il take my chances for something bigger

[earthlight]

Where do i sign?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

[bluewave]

too early to make a call, depending on various factors this could definitely come more north before hooking out. It also get get suppressed and go out to sea off the coast of south carolina. With lots of factors at play, rapid changes on the models, all in a semi favorable pattern for an east coast snowstorm, il take my chances for something bigger

Our best bet would be for that piece of energy moving into into the PAC NW in 72 hrs to come in slower

for a shot at the .25 line getting north of us.

[NYCSuburbs]

Our best bet would be for that piece of energy moving into into the PAC NW in 72 hrs to come in slower

for a shot at the .25 line getting north of us.

Wouldn't we also need more phasing as well? Having a slower western US energy and some more ridging in the west would help, but I'd think that there also needs to be more phasing along with the western ridge to have a better chance for this storm to at least attempt to move up the coast.