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Pattern looks improved for possible KU event 2/18-2/25 time range

Mikehobbyst

By Mikehobbyst,
in New York City Metro

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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

Posted
Posted

If we are going to get a bonafide blizzard this winter such as over 1-2 feet of snow in one storm it looks to happen between 2/18-2/25 time range. I really like the upcoming pattern based on the GFS and ECMWF suggesting a good snowstorm pattern with more neg NAO, DS Blocking showing up, and a stronger southern stream and a weak Phase 1-2 MJO phase. What do you think and please discuss this potential pattern. Highs over Quebec and a stronger southern stream could deliver a substantial threat. Comment please.

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mattinpa

mattinpa

Posted
Posted

If we are going to get a bonafide blizzard this winter such as over 1-2 feet of snow in one storm it looks to happen between 2/18-2/25 time range. I really like the upcoming pattern based on the GFS and ECMWF suggesting a good snowstorm pattern with more neg NAO, DS Blocking showing up, and a stronger southern stream and a weak Phase 1-2 MJO phase. What do you think and please discuss this potential pattern. Highs over Quebec and a stronger southern stream could deliver a substantial threat. Comment please.

12z GFS looked good before truncation. Lots of moisture coming from the gulf, with cold air already in place.

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
Posted

Not on the 12z gfs. It showed no threat of a storm next weekend at all.

The pattern does look better than this weekend, but we really gotta wait till atleast wednesday to start looking at this time period for a potential KU event. Until then its model waffling and probably no grasp on anything. I think thats a pretty fair assesment as far as this year goes right ag3?

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RevWarReenactor

RevWarReenactor

Posted
Posted

If we are going to get a bonafide blizzard this winter such as over 1-2 feet of snow in one storm it looks to happen between 2/18-2/25 time range. I really like the upcoming pattern based on the GFS and ECMWF suggesting a good snowstorm pattern with more neg NAO, DS Blocking showing up, and a stronger southern stream and a weak Phase 1-2 MJO phase. What do you think and please discuss this potential pattern. Highs over Quebec and a stronger southern stream could deliver a substantial threat. Comment please.

You act like these type of storms happen every year in NYC. More like once every 5-10 years.

Shoot for a 6 inch storm.

The last couple fo winters were not normal.

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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Posted

THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD.

If we are going to get a bonafide blizzard this winter such as over 1-2 feet of snow in one storm it looks to happen between 2/18-2/25 time range. I really like the upcoming pattern based on the GFS and ECMWF suggesting a good snowstorm pattern with more neg NAO, DS Blocking showing up, and a stronger southern stream and a weak Phase 1-2 MJO phase. What do you think and please discuss this potential pattern. Highs over Quebec and a stronger southern stream could deliver a substantial threat. Comment please.

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Sickman

Sickman

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Posted

THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD.

Where did you get this from? Is this a copy-and-paste?

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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Accuweather has the control run of the Euro. I subscribe to Accuweather Pro. It is not a joke. It is entirely possible that the run of the model is a joke, afterall, last Saturday it showed us getting a foot of snow today and we got a dusting, but I can tell you it is a possibility and it does show this. The post itself is not a joke.

Where did you get this from? Is this a copy-and-paste?

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

Honestly guys, it is worth getting a trial free subscription just to see this. The control run sometimes keys in on things that the operational run does not. You see how close it was today if things worked out just a little differently we could have gotten nailed. The control run of the Euro showed today's potential a week ago very nicely, although things did not come together perfectly. I can tell you that I only watch the control run to see if it is vastly different than the operational run. The control run is like 001 of the GFS ensembles. It is usually very much like the operational run, but when things look very different on the control run it is often a sign that there is potential. It of course does not mean it will work out, but when the control run is vastly different, it is at least a sign that there is potential and that it would only take very small changes to the operational run to produce vastly different results.

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD.

I just checked Accu WX Pro, and you're spot on. It does show a massive storm, with a significant portion of that being snow.

In the beginning, at hour 186, when precipitation just begins (albeit VERY light) temperatures are in the lower 40s for the area.

When the more significant precipitation moves in at hour 192, temperatures cool off quickly to the mid to lower 30s for the area, so there is probably a brief window where it could start of as rain.

Other than that, it shows a pretty big snow event.

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
Posted

I would have liked to see what the 18z GFS had to offer with this storm before it went into trunction. It had a closed of 1012 mb Low Pressure area off the coast of Georgia. 850 mb temperatures looked warm, but this solution will almost certainly change by 00z.

i will say this, this storm has by far much more legs than today and the fact that this storm if it times right with the southern stream can deliver inches of liquid in the form of snow. the euro showing this is def. something to look into, but lets wait till wedensday to really put some dignified solutions out there. the possibility is there next weekend for a pretty major KU event. its gonna be a FUNNNN week...... OT-i kind of miss staying up late this year like the past few tracking new models and the occasional radio shows

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

18z GEFS:

18zgfsensemblep12168.gif

The GEFS have this threat arriving a day earlier than the ECMWF and DGEX currently show the storm arriving.

What is important though is that there is a surplus of precipitation closer to the coast (near .25") and there is an area of low pressure that has evidently come up the coast, and it's at 999 mb.

Both of those signals are a strong signal for a storm around this timeframe, being that it is a smoothed out ensemble mean and it is 168 hours from now.

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

Just took a look at the 18z GFS Individual Ensembles, and most of the individual members are much more amplified than the operational.

A few have sub 980 mb lows 100 miles east of NJ.

However, the ones that do look warm.

Not sure if I buy that considering the low would be strong enough to generate its own cold air through dynamic cooling.

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

i will say this, this storm has by far much more legs than today and the fact that this storm if it times right with the southern stream can deliver inches of liquid in the form of snow. the euro showing this is def. something to look into, but lets wait till wedensday to really put some dignified solutions out there. the possibility is there next weekend for a pretty major KU event. its gonna be a FUNNNN week...... OT-i kind of miss staying up late this year like the past few tracking new models and the occasional radio shows

So many GFS members being stronger and more amplified with the storm than the Operational gets my attention.

It keys that the Operational is likely too weak with the LP.

I agree that this should be a fun week. I am curious as to what the 00z GFS and its Ensembles will print out considering most of the Ensembles were more robust with the storm than the operational was.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

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Posted

Just took a look at the 18z GFS Individual Ensembles, and most of the individual members are much more amplified than the operational.

A few have sub 980 mb lows 100 miles east of NJ.

However, the ones that do look warm.

Not sure if I buy that considering the low would be strong enough to generate its own cold air through dynamic cooling.

Sub 980 is a very strong noreaster and will produce plenty of cold. The fact that multiple models over several runs are showing this is a very good sign. Can you imagine in this terrible winter we score a HES?

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

No guidance is showing the potential for a "KU Event " in this area -- I don't think we should just use

the KU lightly around here considering how awful the pattern has been this year and how the models have tricked us several times into thinking a sizable storm was possible 7 - 10 days out then it ends up being very minor - many other years like the last 2 years using KU this far out would be ok but not this year.............

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

If there is going to be serious winter storm threat, it will probably with the storm on Feb 19-20th. That would depend on the 17-18th storm becoming a 50/50 low and enhancing a -NAO into Greenland or Davis Strait. Although, I would still take any model solutions that show this past day 5, with a grain of salt. The models have given too many false signals, this winter.

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