ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well im off to bed...up in a few hours to check everything. Good luck to all, esp SE areas that are still looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 -sn 37/32 still not accumulating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well the band of death is certainly beginning to develop. Question remains will it expand up and over SNE or is it going to miss just east. Looks nice off NC right now. Is what it is, if I can get enough to sled on with the kids and make a snowman we'll be happy...2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I'm not expecting much here, but there is a train of moisture from Western KY to CC. Anyone think at least someone in SNE could cash in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well the band of death is certainly beginning to develop. Question remains will it expand up and over SNE or is it going to miss just east. Looks nice off NC right now. Is what it is, if I can get enough to sled on with the kids and make a snowman we'll be happy...2". Conservative guess for you would be 3" High end, good banding, etc...I could see you with 6" or 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 latest nmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 latest nmm What's interesting about that map is that you can see the cells scraping the outer banks now are the ones that make it up here...build back briefly and then are out the door. If we don't see that little bend back I'm in the hose spot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 What's interesting about that map is that you can see the cells scraping the outer banks now are the ones that make it up here...build back briefly and then are out the door. If we don't see that little bend back I'm in the hose spot too. Well, hopefully thats the 850 closing off, I think 4.5 is a good number for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well, hopefully thats the 850 closing off, I think 4.5 is a good number for you. Yeah, def, just such a fine line. Phil's in a much better spot for this one which is good, he got stiffed a bit on that fluff event a few weeks ago, his turn. I expect he'll probably double+ what I get here. NAM/GFS would have me in the 3-6" range, Euro was the same, UK/RGEM are quite a bit less I think, did not see the full 0z UK, but it's not as moist as the GFS almost for sure. I fear that the american models are doing the wrap back in error, but won't worry about it if the Euro holds serve mostly. Expecting the Euro to back off some too. Still, not a bad event for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Just got back from work in Worcester...all parking lots salted and plows ready for the wet snow that won't accumulate...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Lightly raining here now. 38.8 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nothing falling here so the returns directly over me are just virga. Not like I expected much to begin with but I was looking forward to see some snow falling. Reminds me of happy Gilmore when he fails to make the hockey team and the coaches say: "better luck next year" in that cocky, condescending way. I keep hearing that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 SREF is the only thing that gets me near the 2-5" foretasted...and even that probably gives me barely 2". Off to bed soon...looks like if it does snow it won't be till at least 9 or 10 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Light snow here for the past hour, nothing on the ground at 37 deg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nothing falling here so the returns directly over me are just virga. Not like I expected much to begin with but I was looking forward to see some snow falling. Reminds me of happy Gilmore when he fails to make the hockey team and the coaches say: "better luck next year" in that cocky, condescending way. I keep hearing that this winter. Yeah, this one scares(ed) me with that southern vortmax just gearing up all day. i'm not enthused by the radar at all, I am not sure I'm buying the american stuff yet. BOX noting two things, temps are warmer and two, americans caved to the 12z Euro. Now let's just hope they aren't playing catch up and the Euro goes east with the UK/RGEM. If that happens a coating to 2" here would be able to cover it, and Phil would be in the 1-3". I'm really not very confident at this point but that's a combination of the middle of night, and illness. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion -- 1115 PM UPDATE... TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS MAY NOT HAVE ADJUSTED ENOUGH. THIS WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PRECIP MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. WEATHER ALSO UPDATED TO KEEP MORE RAIN FURTHER N OVERNIGHT. NOTED MOST OF THE ENHANCED CLOUDS/ENERGY DOWN TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE LOW WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...MUCH FURTHER S THAN PREVIOUS THINKING...AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z OP RUN OF THE ECMWF. WILL BE INCORPORATING THIS INTO OUR UPDATE FOR 1 AM...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO RETHINK OUR ADVISORIES EARLIER THAN OUR 4 AM UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 SREF is the only thing that gets me near the 2-5" foretasted...and even that probably gives me barely 2". Off to bed soon...looks like if it does snow it won't be till at least 9 or 10 anyway. SREFs I swear have been terrible this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 SREFs I swear have been terrible this winter. The only time I remember them being pretty decent was with the October KU and then were ok again with the event we had up here just before Thanksgiving. At least in and around mby though I'm not sure how they have been in other parts of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 latest ruc is not half bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I'm thinking the models (00z) so far have a pretty good handle on things. Rad trends look interesting using non-NWS products, but those are commercial friendly, which means ... they are tuned up to look more dramatic. I've come to find over the years that the NWS' rad products are closer to the truth. Anyway, one thing I am noticing in these runs (as this decently verifying slug of synoptic scale precip is exiting the SE coast (of the U.S.)) is that the northern stream is doesn't have very good DPVA. It was better in the runs that whacked the area. The southern stream aspect of this did have a governing S/W, albeit weak compared to the majesty of the deep trough in the OV, so I agree with Ryan that it isn't entirely convective feedback. It is helping to mechanize the deep SE output. But, without the N stream DPVA, the cyclogen parameters are weak; if they had been stronger, such that they were during yesterday's cycles, the "western low" would have been stronger ... and the whole thing may have done better to capture S stream moisture and foist it all west ...feeding back and making THAT the dominant low. These runs bailing on the western low actually makes sense given the amount of differential positive vorticity advection lacking. I wouldn't be shocked if shredded light returns dominate the rad trends over night. You're looking for a consolidated band or two to light up but I don't think that is going to happen given these dynamics, and that goes for the SE too. Perhaps the outer Cape might benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Ovc and 29 here ..but moisture won't be forthcoming so it doesn't really matter. Late next week looks intriguing on the GFS. And quite a - NAO forming. Light snow here for the past hour, nothing on the ground at 37 deg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 very light snow has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 raining in wakefield ma......winter continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I'm thinking the models (00z) so far have a pretty good handle on things. Rad trends look interesting using non-NWS products, but those are commercial friendly, which means ... they are tuned up to look more dramatic. I've come to find over the years that the NWS' rad products are closer to the truth. Anyway, one thing I am noticing in these runs (as this decently verifying slug of synoptic scale precip is exiting the SE coast (of the U.S.)) is that the northern stream is doesn't have very good DPVA. It was better in the runs that whacked the area. The southern stream aspect of this did have a governing S/W, albeit weak compared to the majesty of the deep trough in the OV, so I agree with Ryan that it isn't entirely convective feedback. It is helping to mechanize the deep SE output. But, without the N stream DPVA, the cyclogen parameters are weak; if they had been stronger, such that they were during yesterday's cycles, the "western low" would have been stronger ... and the whole thing may have done better to capture S stream moisture and foist it all west ...feeding back and making THAT the dominant low. These runs bailing on the western low actually makes sense given the amount of differential positive vorticity advection lacking. I wouldn't be shocked if shredded light returns dominate the rad trends over night. You're looking for a consolidated band or two to light up but I don't think that is going to happen given these dynamics, and that goes for the SE too. Perhaps the outer Cape might benefit. Agreed. There's going to be the haves and have nots. I'd rather be out by Phil. radar starting to fill up where it should be, we'll see. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DOX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 No matter how old I get, its always magical to watch the first flakes fall, whether it be flurries or a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Agreed. There's going to be the haves and have nots. I'd rather be out by Phil. radar starting to fill up where it should be, we'll see. http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes I should be clear ... will it snow? Yes. But "shredded" is showery in nature and variable non "storm" in nature. There is a very weak jet max exiting that area of the MA and is likely related to some enhancement there. When the seaward low gets cranking though, that should cut off - we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 No matter how old I get, its always magical to watch the first flakes fall, whether it be flurries or a foot. Didn't you get a foot in October? Wasn't there snow there a few weeks ago?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Messenger, any rough time table on when to expect the flakes to start mixing in down here in Kingston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I should be clear ... will it snow? Yes. But "shredded" is showery in nature and variable non "storm" in nature. There is a very weak jet max exiting that area of the MA and is likely related to some enhancement there. When the seaward low gets cranking though, that should cut off - we'll see. I agree with that too, very much has the potential to be the shredded crap for many of us away from the main band. Messenger, any rough time table on when to expect the flakes to start mixing in down here in Kingston? It's going to take steady precip for a bit, Phil would be the one to ask. Anyone have early Euro access? Want to put this puppy out of its misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Didn't you get a foot in October? Wasn't there snow there a few weeks ago?? got 1.5 in october, 8 of powder on jan 21 but im talking any event, the first flakes of any particular event, its magical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 925 temps runnin warm over eastern new england up thru maine maybe that somehow can help tap more moisture N lol i'm hopin radar puts a band over my hiney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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