ChrisM Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 based on what? one run of the NAM? NAM looks terrible, SREFs say we may see some snow showers, radar looks bad. What more can I say? Maybe the GFS looks good, but everything else sucks for out here. I'd feel better if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 big big big ................big winter on the way! LOL, well he never did specify the year that it was incoming, just the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 NAM looks terrible, SREFs say we may see some snow showers, radar looks bad. What more can I say? Maybe the GFS looks good, but everything else sucks for out here. I'd feel better if I were you. It's all relative to ones emotions. Your expectations must have been unrealistic. This is going pretty much as I thought it would. The comments in here tonight are nauseating. All guidance still looks on track, NAM included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's all relative to ones emotions. Your expectations must have been unrealistic. This is going pretty much as I thought it would. The comments in here tonight are nauseating. All guidance still looks on track, NAM included. Dude, I'm home. I'm not at school. It literally looks like a d-1" event here. Obviously my expectations were higher than that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's all relative to ones emotions. Your expectations must have been unrealistic. This is going pretty much as I thought it would. The comments in here tonight are nauseating. All guidance still looks on track, NAM included. The NAM definitely took most of the snow away for areas like metro west Boston and back in this region where most guidance had 2-4" type snowfall. So in that respect, its definitely different. For NW CT though most guidance has looked pretty bleak for more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 nam is still a solid thump out here...like .6 at fmh to .8 at chh. actually up over an inch at ACK and a good chunk, verbatim, is frozen even out there. still gets the good lift onto most of the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The NAM definitely took most of the snow away for areas like metro west Boston and back in this region where most guidance had 2-4" type snowfall. So in that respect, its definitely different. For NW CT though most guidance has looked pretty bleak for more than an inch. Yeah, I mean I thoguht we could squeak out 3" over here at one point last night. I was even thinking 4-5" for school, so maybe my expectations were a bit high. Some station in CT was chucking 2-5 for CT with 5-10 in the east yesterday. Whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's all relative to ones emotions. Your expectations must have been unrealistic. This is going pretty much as I thought it would. The comments in here tonight are nauseating. All guidance still looks on track, NAM included. Yeah, the NAM hasn't had a single run that was consistent yet. It did pretty much what the Euro did, just east a bit and more consolidated away from the main band. The RGEM was never a bit hit anywhere and has always largely been a miss. 12 hours ago it had an inverted trough signal...been disregard by NCEP as being too progressive. It shifted a bit east tonight, but within the noise/grid. The other night Jerry pointed out it's often terrible, it may be right this time, who knows...but not that worried about it. I'd like to see the area of precip getting ready to exit the VA Capes expand soon. We need to see that starting to expand aggressively towards Block Island (the direction not distance) in the next 2 hours. Maybe some signs that's about to occur. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 nam is still a solid thump out here...like .6 at fmh to .8 at chh. actually up over an inch at ACK and a good chunk, verbatim, is frozen even out there. still gets the good lift onto most of the cape. I took a look at the HYA soundings. Solid thump out there. It's funny to sit here at 44F and 12h from now it will be 33-35 and snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Radar looks like crap for interior, but no one was expecting for than an inch or 2 up here anyway Good luck Phil, Ack, Bob, Messenger, etc Take pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 nam is still a solid thump out here...like .6 at fmh to .8 at chh. actually up over an inch at ACK and a good chunk, verbatim, is frozen even out there. still gets the good lift onto most of the cape. Congrats! Maybe the trend is real and we're done with any -SN early on, so the sun can come out and maybe we can play catch for the second day in a row. Baseball season is oh so close! PS- I know it's just one run of the NAM, but man...this winter has been something else. It's like some evil evil person is controlling the weather perfectly to mess with our emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Radar looks like crap for interior, but no one was expecting for than an inch or 2 up here anyway Good luck Phil, Ack, Bob, Messenger, etc Take pics radar (not sure about how it plays out over the interior) will probably be a bit deceiving for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The NAM definitely took most of the snow away for areas like metro west Boston and back in this region where most guidance had 2-4" type snowfall. So in that respect, its definitely different. For NW CT though most guidance has looked pretty bleak for more than an inch. It's as if people saw the NAM roll out and said, game over. I still think the 2" is possible in the metro west are of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 radar (not sure about how it plays out over the interior) will probably be a bit deceiving for quite a while. Well, I was looking more at the stuff down south... looks like it is a bit east of where I would want it to help us The northern stuff looks like crud, too, but that is to be expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Would you all say I'm looking at 3-4' tmw in my neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Noyes latest snow maps http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2012/02/greatest-snowfall-amounts-expected-in-eastern-new-england-from-cape-cod-to-eastern-maine.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's as if people saw the NAM roll out and said, game over. I still think the 2" is possible in the metro west are of BOS. Yeah I don't think we can put zero weight on the NAM though..but I haven't changed anything yet. I was expecting a couple inches here...hoping for 3"...but it might be tough. HRRR is still walloping SE MA...doesn't go out far enough to see just how far NW decent snow gets, but it looked a lot better than the NAM...but its the HRR beyond 6 hours so I won't place much stock in that model either. I guess we're just going to have to see how radar looks early tomorrow morning. Hopefully the Euro doesn't crap out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Would you all say I'm looking at 3-4' tmw in my neck of the woods? 3 to 4 feet is reserved for GC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 GFS has followed the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Noyes latest snow maps http://www.mattnoyes...tern-maine.html Reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 3 to 4 feet is reserved for GC Nope...skiMRG not expecting anything over 20". Rare to see him so conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 GFS is looking pretty cruddy too...might be tough NW of a BOS-PVD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 GFS has followed the NAM. They have come into very good agreement, so at this point it's safe to discard both and go with something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 still think 2" for extreme eastern and southeastern CT... maybe 3-4" SE MASS...4-7" Cape Cod...western NE deff looks crappy. Event earlier forecasts by many werent good out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Like I said, I'll be surprised if we coat the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 0z gfs looks like the 0z NAM except with slightly lighter precip towards the cape...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 They have come into very good agreement, so at this point it's safe to discard both and go with something else. You should do okay still. Probably 4" at least. Nearly smoking cirrus here. What a sh*tty winter. I'm close to throwing in the towel. That poor camel's back is starting to look a little strained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Yeah I don't think we can put zero weight on the NAM though..but I haven't changed anything yet. I was expecting a couple inches here...hoping for 3"...but it might be tough. HRRR is still walloping SE MA...doesn't go out far enough to see just how far NW decent snow gets, but it looked a lot better than the NAM...but its the HRR beyond 6 hours so I won't place much stock in that model either. I guess we're just going to have to see how radar looks early tomorrow morning. Hopefully the Euro doesn't crap out. I was just looking at the HRRR and it is. At this point modeling is becoming a moot point. Radar and obs will become more important. Buoy data will help as well to watch for where the center(s) develop. I feel Phil and Scott are sitting pretty right now with their longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 20 miles would make all the difference. This is so excruciating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 I was just looking at the HRRR and it is. At this point modeling is becoming a moot point. Radar and obs will become more important. Buoy data will help as well to watch for where the center(s) develop. I fell Phil and Scott are sitting pretty right now with their longitude. Do you have a good link to the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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