HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I can see it now. He'll wake up for his run.....throw on his Nike's........step outside and he'll see stars peaking through a high cirrus. His iPod will be playing Pink Floyd and Sarah McLaughlin He will think it is melting snow on his cheeks, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Take a look at 12z 30H...Euro vs 0z 18h on the NAM. I know this is a vague measure, but the .1" line looks pretty darn good. Euro had it Boston to Seekonk. NAM is very close. NAM actually is a touch lighter in the 3 hour period before, but makes up for it after. Minor fluctuations. We'll see what the other guidance brings. The peripheral snows are gone. It's that one band that comes off Hatteras and if it falls in the gridspace and is 10-25 miles east this could be a total cosmic dildo ™ I'm pretty confident the .1" lines up very well on the 12z Euro and 0z NAM. Unless the graphics I'm using are off, but it looks very similar. So for at least SE/E dwellars this isn't a catastrophe (unless NAM is still behind the times) it's just NCEP catching up to their suck. I don't really think they are that similar...at least in the sense that we care about. NAM is really shunting things eastward and the Euro allows it to blossom back to the NW a bit. Regardless, I don't think I'd really change my forecast at the moment based on a run of the NAM. We'll probably know by later tonight around 06z or 09z whether its right or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 wow bdr's dp went from 34 to 26 with the wind shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Model consensus seemed to be about 0.1"-0.2" QPF back here. NAM has 0.00" Think there was always going to be a real sharp gradient. There was only 1 3 hour period where about the corner 1/5 of CT was forecast to get .1" or better. Other than that..... I see what you're saying the NAM definitely has a total screw zone on the other side of the band. And like I said until the Euro holds I'm losing faith here, but 2-4/3-6 would be what the NAM drops on my head, and Phil gets rocked pretty good. Mother Nature got tired of hearng about all the snow in the GC and felt bad for Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well, the epic polar cold is gone, too Wheeeeeeee Kev Wheeeeeeeee! Really? I was just about to post that we could start a consolation thread to record temp and wind observations instead of the snow one. Now that has to be cancelled, too? I think I'm going to go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 His iPod will be playing Pink Floyd and Sarah McLaughlin He will think it is melting snow on his cheeks, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I don't really think they are that similar...at least in the sense that we care about. NAM is really shunting things eastward and the Euro allows it to blossom back to the NW a bit. Regardless, I don't think I'd really change my forecast at the moment based on a run of the NAM. We'll probably know by later tonight around 06z or 09z whether its right or not. Like you said I wouldn't change a forecast either, but I'm pretty sure if you overlay the .1" 3 hour QPF lines on the 0z NAM and 12z Euro you'll see they match up incredibly well. Even the general shape is the same, what's different is the NAM really cropped the fluff NW of the serious band. The normally bone dry RUC has measurable in areas the NAM doesn't...so the NAM probably has done some overcompensating again...I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 you need to add my face to that. I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 LOL--I see you added more people to the mix. hard to keep track of who's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Like you said I wouldn't change a forecast either, but I'm pretty sure if you overlay the .1" 3 hour QPF lines on the 0z NAM and 12z Euro you'll see they match up incredibly well. Even the general shape is the same, what's different is the NAM really cropped the fluff NW of the serious band. The normally bone dry RUC has measurable in areas the NAM doesn't...so the NAM probably has done some overcompensating again...I hope. It's gone against the SREFs as well as Euro so something must be wrong with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 euro has been steady as a rock for days here, right around .2 precip for countless runs, hope it pans out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Light Rain.... 43.9/40 Temp down .4 but dewpoint up 1 degree since the rain started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's gone against the SREFs as well as Euro so something must be wrong with it. Well at first glance it really has no extension of the low NW...it's a consolidated low WAY SE. Could be right, we'll know soon. That's probably the minor transport mechanism that allowed the snow to propogate further back. That said, even the .25" line matches well, the 12z 30h Euro v 0z 18h NAM. Euro had it cutting around the canal, NAM is maybe even a hair west of that. The .1 got trimmed maybe 5-10 miles but still roughly runs from Boston to SE CT. Euro 33h had the .1" Boston to Fall River, NAM is about identical. NAm actually is wetter on the Cape at that interval. Like I said what seems to happen here...which I think we see as a common bias of the NAM at times is it's overconcentrating precip in the band maybe instead of spreading it out a bit. Other than that.... For the Cape and east coastal areas, status quo. What mainly vanished elsewhere was the cumulative few hundreths, .05 or just under .1"...and who knows that may be an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well at first glance it really has no extension of the low NW...it's a consolidated low WAY SE. Could be right, we'll know soon. That's probably the minor transport mechanism that allowed the snow to propogate further back. That said, even the .25" line matches well, the 12z 30h Euro v 0z 18h NAM. Euro had it cutting around the canal, NAM is maybe even a hair west of that. The .1 got trimmed maybe 5-10 miles but still roughly runs from Boston to SE CT. Euro 33h had the .1" Boston to Fall River, NAM is about identical. NAm actually is wetter on the Cape at that interval. Like I said what seems to happen here...which I think we see as a common bias of the NAM at times is it's overconcentrating precip in the band maybe instead of spreading it out a bit. Other than that.... For the Cape and east coastal areas, status quo. What mainly vanished elsewhere was the cumulative few hundreths, .05 or just under .1"...and who knows that may be an error. we know its a bad sign when you have 10 posts comparing the 18z nam and 12z euro .1inch lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=mhx&loop=yes there's the burst of precip the GFS was keying on...heading over the inland waters of NC. 18z GFS muted that some, Euro didn't really have it. GFS tried to develop a low under it for a brief time. Regardless even the new NAM...that's the precip shield that needs to grown an stretch as it moves up over eastern areas. In about 8 or 9 hours it's totally offshore, by 12 hours it's started to spread over eastern areas. It'll probably look like a total miss for several hours, but it should hopefully swing up and over eastern areas in the end. Needle thread...will happen or it won't but it's the same theme as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well at first glance it really has no extension of the low NW...it's a consolidated low WAY SE. Could be right, we'll know soon. That's probably the minor transport mechanism that allowed the snow to propogate further back. That said, even the .25" line matches well, the 12z 30h Euro v 0z 18h NAM. Euro had it cutting around the canal, NAM is maybe even a hair west of that. The .1 got trimmed maybe 5-10 miles but still roughly runs from Boston to SE CT. Euro 33h had the .1" Boston to Fall River, NAM is about identical. NAm actually is wetter on the Cape at that interval. Like I said what seems to happen here...which I think we see as a common bias of the NAM at times is it's overconcentrating precip in the band maybe instead of spreading it out a bit. Other than that.... For the Cape and east coastal areas, status quo. What mainly vanished elsewhere was the cumulative few hundreths, .05 or just under .1"...and who knows that may be an error. 00z Nam still throws 0.3" at me so still in line with my 3" low end and in line with BOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 we know its a bad sign when you have 10 posts comparing the 18z nam and 12z euro .1inch lines If the situation was reversed I'd be hearing about how I was being negative. In this case, at least on this model, and I'm not saying it's right....there's almost no difference in sensible weather in SE MA and if the expectation was 2-5" which was the number most promoted by NOAA, TV, etc. I realize it's changed elsewhere, but it's one model so far. It could well be that the Euro shoves everything east too, but the NAM was incapable of forecasting the snow we got the other night with a 6 hour lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 If the situation was reversed I'd be hearing about how I was being negative. In this case, at least on this model, and I'm not saying it's right....there's almost no difference in sensible weather in SE MA and if the expectation was 2-5" which was the number most promoted by NOAA, TV, etc. I realize it's changed elsewhere, but it's one model so far. It could well be that the Euro shoves everything east too, but the NAM was incapable of forecasting the snow we got the other night with a 6 hour lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 LOL at NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 If the situation was reversed I'd be hearing about how I was being negative. In this case, at least on this model, and I'm not saying it's right....there's almost no difference in sensible weather in SE MA and if the expectation was 2-5" which was the number most promoted by NOAA, TV, etc. I realize it's changed elsewhere, but it's one model so far. It could well be that the Euro shoves everything east too, but the NAM was incapable of forecasting the snow we got the other night with a 6 hour lead. I dont even know why they use the Nam anymore. I realize its a more detailed model, but it hasnt trumped the other lead models in quite awhile, often leading us off into some parallel reality, like yesterday 12z, for example, only to later come back to the back.. and now, at the last minute, reversing field yet again, this time giving most of us near nada. very frustrating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 LOL at NAM Box of chocolates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Box of chocolates. The forest gump of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well I wish the SNE peeps good luck tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 big big big ................big winter on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 21z SREFs. Total precip of all the members. Mean is on the bottom right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 21z SREFs. Total precip of all the members. Mean is on the bottom right. lol. at this point I think our chance of even whitening the ground is looking remote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 lol. at this point I think our chance of even whitening the ground is looking remote. based on what? one run of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Think the RGEM looks like crap too. EDIT: It's maybe 5-10 miles east of the 12z...but it did lose the inverted trough signal for LI etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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