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Feb 11-12, 2012 Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting


NorEastermass128

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I'm just glad this 1-3 storm back here has gone to crap. If it was a 6-12 kinda deal is be disappointed. With this... Meh.

If anything it will be enjoyable to see Kevin's meltdown in the morning.

Yeah thats the saving grace it wasn't much to lose at this point

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The simplistic crux of the problem for most of us west of about 73 longitude is that the PV is just not positioned far enough west. The whole trough is pivoting around that and deep as it may be ...it can't go neutral, let alone negative in time....

Not much luck this year..had that PV been 150 miles further west a whole different story.

I think many of us still do. lol

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Futility cancel uncancel.

It's the NAM and it hasn't shown anything near similar for two runs but:

1. We know the southern stream is potent and not giving it up.

2. We know all the meaningful precip is already off the coast.

3. We know the NAM tends to be overdone in QPF in coastals....which if this is occuring again this time the rug gets pulled out with the other models in the hours ahead.

4. This is the worst winter in our lives.

Not that worried about it yet as it's very similar in principle to the Euro but it's such a fine line...yikes.

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Dude, wanna drink on the beach tomorrow? Should be nice before the front.

Ahhh, sounds tempting, but work, daughters bb game and TDlists get in the way..........but the wife and I are going out for dinner later, grandpa has the kids, some killer italian rest in Westport, then home and walking over to the Colony and Archie M's for limitless libations!

Go Uconn!

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It looks notably worse than the Euro to me.

Take a look at 12z 30H...Euro vs 0z 18h on the NAM. I know this is a vague measure, but the .1" line looks pretty darn good. Euro had it Boston to Seekonk. NAM is very close. NAM actually is a touch lighter in the 3 hour period before, but makes up for it after.

Minor fluctuations. We'll see what the other guidance brings.

The peripheral snows are gone. It's that one band that comes off Hatteras and if it falls in the gridspace and is 10-25 miles east this could be a total cosmic dildo ™

I'm pretty confident the .1" lines up very well on the 12z Euro and 0z NAM. Unless the graphics I'm using are off, but it looks very similar. So for at least SE/E dwellars this isn't a catastrophe (unless NAM is still behind the times) it's just NCEP catching up to their suck.

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Ahhh, sounds tempting, but work, daughters bb game and TDlists get in the way..........but the wife and I are going out for dinner later, grandpa has the kids, some killer italian rest in Westport, then home and walking over to the Colony and Archie M's for limitless libations!

Go Uconn!

Ah nice, sounds like a good night! I have not been able to go out lately because I work every weekend morning at 7 am, and have an 8 am class Friday AM. I definitely don't live the normal college life, but I need to support myself. UConn will get crushed tomorrow almost as bad as the fish.

Good luck with your 8 flakes, hopefully I can get 9 and beat you :)

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On the 0Z Nam even at h24 the trough is positive as the base drags through Upstate NY.... Makes it a moot point really whether the northern or southern vort takes over. It's over and out for most anyway..except the Cape.....

...

I am actually looking forward more to Ray's posts tonight more than Kevin's, they should be ITYS la epic. Still a nice little even out on the cape, although not sure about taint.

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To be clear I'm looking at 3hr increments...even the timing is pretty darn good. The NAM is essentially just about right on the .1" line for each of the 3, 3 hour periods where we have that type of precip that the 12z Euro had.

Not unexpected, was clear the 12z GFS was off its rocker a couple of hours ago and that the 18z GFS had adjusted and come towards the Euro, but was not entirely there and still a bit off. The precip maxes in N and eNC were the givewaway. 12z GFS had that way too far west and overdone and delivered the most, the 18z trimmed and shifted it SE..but never made it quite to the Euro.

Only concern i have is it almost looked like even the Euro may have been a few miles too west, but that's nitpicking.

Euro to me is just being validated so far, hoping so anyway.

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